ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Javlin]

Goodness, the 12z Euro would be quite horrible if that track verified.

And the key word "verified" still got 3/4 days to see the models on Sat/Sun

[cajungal]

Props to Aric! Good call man on westward shifts

Fyi.. probably a few more to come.

The upper low to its nw is weakening and moving out of the way faster.. soo yeah.

At first Ithought I would be ok here in SE Louisiana but has my attention now. I am an 60 miles southwest of New Orleans.

[robbielyn]

https://i.imgur.com/DzskwEP.png

my bad but i got to say i like this solution better than the 00Z which was closer to my house. Although i hate anything impacting panhandle. Sorry I forgot to refresh.

[Steve]

216 hours, ECMWF has it in SW Alabama NNW of Pensacola and SW of Montgomery at about 31.83N, 87.3W so still with some westerly motion. No good for my home away from home (Pensacola), but hopefully it doesn't move it appreciably more westward in the coming days. Roughly Vredenburgh/Greenville/Monroeville, AL at that point

[stormlover2013]

I"m about to be sick...literally. Although I know things will probably change between now and next week. But geeze, that looks strong...at Both landfalls

that's over a week out, you see how many times models have been changing, it will keep flopping for the long range. Short term is in pretty good agreement I think lol but never know

[beachman80]

This has been a major movement south today. I'm starting to think there's even the chance this could get pushed further south if it slows down and miss South Florida altogether and go through the straits and the Keys. Also, if you live in Texas and Louisiana, pay close attention. Katrina was supposed to have the same exact track as Dorian going through south Florida and then pulling up into Appalachicola and it kept shifting more and more west.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/K ... hics.shtml

[Highteeld]

Could be a real mess in the Gulf

[Mello1]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1166781749050765313

Oh my goodness. That's ominous.

[Javlin]

216 hours, ECMWF has it in SW Alabama NNW of Pensacola and SW of Montgomery at about 31.83N, 87.3W so still with some westerly motion. No good for my home away from home (Pensacola), but hopefully it doesn't move it appreciably more westward in the coming days. Roughly Vredenburgh/Greenville/Monroeville, AL at that point

The time frame between 192hr and 240hr(hardly moves) what tug the Low to the N had is lost and High pressure moving in makes you wonder about the gap the Low creates but like we all know it's a week out things change.

[beachman80]

Everyone seems to be coming around to the fact that the ridge is going to be strong. If that's the case, while I don't want to discount the Carolinas and Georgia, it's going to be really hard for that storm to get up there if it's blocked. I think this is looking more likely to be a south Florida and Gulf Coast problem.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Aric,

When you say a few more do you mean a few more adjustments to the south?

[DESTRUCTION5]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166783470905020416

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

When you say a few more do you mean a few more adjustments to the south?

Yes. No huge shifts but some possible wsw motion possible or just the west turn happening earlier.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you so much Aric,

I follow you and a few others on the wite very close. Very much appreciate your knowledge and insight.

[bella_may]

Didn’t think I had to worry about this one here in Mississippi. It certainly has my attention now.

[sma10]

Aric,

When you say a few more do you mean a few more adjustments to the south?

Yes. No huge shifts but some possible wsw motion possible or just the west turn happening earlier.

Aric, is your sense that the FL Straits are in play? Or you're not thinking the shifts will be that extreme?

[catskillfire51]

When will the Euro ensembles come out?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

When you say a few more do you mean a few more adjustments to the south?

Yes. No huge shifts but some possible wsw motion possible or just the west turn happening earlier.

Aric, is your sense that the FL Straits are in play? Or you're not thinking the shifts will be that extreme?

As.of right now the chances of it coming south of miami are lower. If that upper low drops farther sw and the ridge is tilted a little more ne sw then possibly.

Still a few variables and things can change

[Nimbus]

Everyone seems to be coming around to the fact that the ridge is going to be strong. If that's the case, while I don't want to discount the Carolinas and Georgia, it's going to be really hard for that storm to get up there if it's blocked. I think this is looking more likely to be a south Florida and Gulf Coast problem.

The last four runs of the GFS have tracked further south each run, the last track making landfall near the Cape and moving up through Jacksonville. Looks very grim now with model consensus for a Florida landfall and a possible second landfall on the gulf coast.

Dorian is tracking further east than originally thought and that means the ULL that was originally expected to shear a weak storm will be ventilating a hurricane. Glad the NHC made the decision to put the M on the map early.

What are the odds the model consensus will be off in 4 days?

[KWT]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166783470905020416?s=19

130kts gust on that ECM run, very impressive wind speeds on a global model, even one that has a decent resolution.