ATL: DORIAN - Models

[CrazyC83]

Still not feeling in the clear here in Key West. I will wait until it makes that west turn(or WSW) before writing it off or going full blown storm mode.

Usually I don't even look at the ICON model but it has done well and takes the storm way too close for comfort. Also the Euro's shift south is also getting too close for comfort.

There will be much more input data for tomorrow's computer models and that will hopefully give us a better picture and really narrow down the apparent imminent landfall spot.

I gree with your thinking, but, where ut goes once ut turns keft, will be a short timeframe to prepare. AND, it appears all models agree on the turn. He's going to turn, but how much, how fast, and the what...

This is why I bought gas today. I would normally write this iff as a far chance,b ut too much alignments in the turn, and then the ?? I can always dump the rec gas into the F250..

At this rate, I am starting to wonder if there will even be a trough at all? Something like Inez 1966 in a sense.

[Aric Dunn]

Still not feeling in the clear here in Key West. I will wait until it makes that west turn(or WSW) before writing it off or going full blown storm mode.

Usually I don't even look at the ICON model but it has done well and takes the storm way too close for comfort. Also the Euro's shift south is also getting too close for comfort.

There will be much more input data for tomorrow's computer models and that will hopefully give us a better picture and really narrow down the apparent imminent landfall spot.

I gree with your thinking, but, where ut goes once ut turns keft, will be a short timeframe to prepare. AND, it appears all models agree on the turn. He's going to turn, but how much, how fast, and the what...

This is why I bought gas today. I would normally write this iff as a far chance,b ut too much alignments in the turn, and then the ?? I can always dump the rec gas into the F250..

Like I mentioned a few times. expect some more south shifts. since the that upper low is weaker and moving farther Sw away from dorian which will allow the ridging to build in stronger and stronger.

the EPS members are starting to show this with the wsw and sw dives.

[Aric Dunn]

Still not feeling in the clear here in Key West. I will wait until it makes that west turn(or WSW) before writing it off or going full blown storm mode.

Usually I don't even look at the ICON model but it has done well and takes the storm way too close for comfort. Also the Euro's shift south is also getting too close for comfort.

There will be much more input data for tomorrow's computer models and that will hopefully give us a better picture and really narrow down the apparent imminent landfall spot.

I gree with your thinking, but, where ut goes once ut turns keft, will be a short timeframe to prepare. AND, it appears all models agree on the turn. He's going to turn, but how much, how fast, and the what...

This is why I bought gas today. I would normally write this iff as a far chance,b ut too much alignments in the turn, and then the ?? I can always dump the rec gas into the F250..

At this rate, I am starting to wonder if there will even be a trough at all? Something like Inez 1966 in a sense.

my thoughts last night were upper texas coast... but if it got trapped under the death ridge. then plow into mexico lol

[Sambucol]

I gree with your thinking, but, where ut goes once ut turns keft, will be a short timeframe to prepare. AND, it appears all models agree on the turn. He's going to turn, but how much, how fast, and the what...

This is why I bought gas today. I would normally write this iff as a far chance,b ut too much alignments in the turn, and then the ?? I can always dump the rec gas into the F250..

At this rate, I am starting to wonder if there will even be a trough at all? Something like Inez 1966 in a sense.

my thoughts last night were upper texas coast... but if it got trapped under the death ridge. then plow into mexico lol

Are still thinking the upper Texas Coast?

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Aric,

As I stated earlier I very much appreciate ur insight, but please no more shift south towards the Keys.

[Nimbus]

Still not feeling in the clear here in Key West. I will wait until it makes that west turn(or WSW) before writing it off or going full blown storm mode.

Usually I don't even look at the ICON model but it has done well and takes the storm way too close for comfort. Also the Euro's shift south is also getting too close for comfort.

There will be much more input data for tomorrow's computer models and that will hopefully give us a better picture and really narrow down the apparent imminent landfall spot.

I gree with your thinking, but, where ut goes once ut turns keft, will be a short timeframe to prepare. AND, it appears all models agree on the turn. He's going to turn, but how much, how fast, and the what...

This is why I bought gas today. I would normally write this iff as a far chance,b ut too much alignments in the turn, and then the ?? I can always dump the rec gas into the F250..

At this rate, I am starting to wonder if there will even be a trough at all? Something like Inez 1966 in a sense.

Dorian is currently gaining latitude at a good clip.
Going to be a little stronger than we were thinking so it might buck the ridge.

NHC doing the best they can with the track near the center of probabilities as they see them.

Before Dorian heads almost due west we should have a couple pages of trichoidal wobble wars on storm2k. Jacksonville is only a few trichoidal wobbles north of the Cape. Andrew stalled and just came straight west actually losing a little latitude but that was a different upper level setup. NHC will swing track north or south as this unfolds.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

What time do the next set of models run would that be the GFS at around midnight ?

[Aric Dunn]

What time do the next set of models run would that be the GFS at around midnight ?

18z.. starts at 530pm. euro at 730 pm.

00z at 1130pm and euro at 130 am.

[Steve]

What time do the next set of models run would that be the GFS at around midnight ?

18z models should start coming out in an hour or so. NAM 12km mesoscale model was at 60 hours last I checked (only goes to 84 on Tropical Tidbits). Looked a little more north but wobbling and maybe not as strong as the prior run. Can't really tell yet though what it's going to do the last 24 hours.

[OuterBanker]

Thank God the Legacy is no longer considered.
Don't mind at all if the models take us out of it.
Just wish that no one would have to deal with it, but it doesn't look like that's going to happen.

[SoupBone]

At this rate, I am starting to wonder if there will even be a trough at all? Something like Inez 1966 in a sense.

my thoughts last night were upper texas coast... but if it got trapped under the death ridge. then plow into mexico lol

Are still thinking the upper Texas Coast?

There is currently, nothing, indicating a Texas landfall (a few ensembles do point in that direction though), with the Death Ridge firmly in place over us. However, current conditions do not equal what could happen in a week. Still, the Death Ridge is a player in this as well, which is why you aren't hearing a whole lot of Texas chatter.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank all for the model run times.

[CrazyC83]

my thoughts last night were upper texas coast... but if it got trapped under the death ridge. then plow into mexico lol

Are still thinking the upper Texas Coast?

There is currently, nothing, indicating a Texas landfall (a few ensembles do point in that direction though), with the Death Ridge firmly in place over us. However, current conditions do not equal what could happen in a week. Still, the Death Ridge is a player in this as well, which is why you aren't hearing a whole lot of Texas chatter.

The thought I had there was if the ridges connected and there is no northward turn at all after Florida...it would just duck under the ridge.

[Aric Dunn]

Are still thinking the upper Texas Coast?

There is currently, nothing, indicating a Texas landfall (a few ensembles do point in that direction though), with the Death Ridge firmly in place over us. However, current conditions do not equal what could happen in a week. Still, the Death Ridge is a player in this as well, which is why you aren't hearing a whole lot of Texas chatter.

The thought I had there was if the ridges connected and there is no northward turn at all after Florida...it would just duck under the ridge.

yep.. and if you watch the 12z euro what turns it is the ridge to the east strengthens. no real trough dips down.. so the possibility of just shooting west is there.

[MGC]

Threat to the Gulf went up big time today, maybe to 70% or better if you had to give it a percentage.

Dean, I'm afraid you are correct. Typical westward trend in the models I've seen many times before.....MGC

[SoupBone]

Are still thinking the upper Texas Coast?

There is currently, nothing, indicating a Texas landfall (a few ensembles do point in that direction though), with the Death Ridge firmly in place over us. However, current conditions do not equal what could happen in a week. Still, the Death Ridge is a player in this as well, which is why you aren't hearing a whole lot of Texas chatter.

The thought I had there was if the ridges connected and there is no northward turn at all after Florida...it would just duck under the ridge.

And plow into Mexico? Ahhh I see your Inez '66 comparison. Man that would have every single poster on this board biting their nails.

[Steve]

18z NAM is coming up a little stair steppy. It's farther north and maybe faster than 12z. This is where I have the 84 hour positions (obviously you need to adjust for the missing 6 hours):

12Z: 22.07N, 73.1W @ 1008
18Z: 26.8N, 76.05W @ 1007

If you want to extrapolate the 12Z to 18Z and minus the 6 hours from the 18Z (78 hour plot)

12Z: 22.07N, 73.1W @ 1008
18Z: 26.23N, 74.6W @ 1008

So farther north and west. NAM isn't good for tracks since it jumps around from run to run. But it's the only thing out. ICON short 18z run should be next.

[AutoPenalti]

ICON a bit further north but Ridge is stout out ahead of it.

[Javlin]

Are still thinking the upper Texas Coast?

There is currently, nothing, indicating a Texas landfall (a few ensembles do point in that direction though), with the Death Ridge firmly in place over us. However, current conditions do not equal what could happen in a week. Still, the Death Ridge is a player in this as well, which is why you aren't hearing a whole lot of Texas chatter.

The thought I had there was if the ridges connected and there is no northward turn at all after Florida...it would just duck under the ridge.

That what I saw on the Euro it got weak it got thin N of the Panhandle but did it break and the timeframe from 192/240 it basically stalled that's 8/10 days out alot can change a little nuances here and there add up.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like ICON is faster this run @ Hr 33, ridge is growing.