ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OuterBanker]

Track from 5pm TPC has a new attraction at Disney World.
Hurricane Dorian.

[SconnieCane]

If atmospheric conditions are prime, why then are intensity forecasts not cat 4 winds? I'm sincerely interested, what conditions did say Andrew have that Dorian does not? Are the SSTs not high enough? Does it not have enough ventilation? Too high of shear? I thought with the setup these are all expected to be favorable... What's capping only a 35mph increase from right this minute.

hwrf sees it. same issue happened with michael last year. most models are initiated it wayyyyy too weak right now

HWRF is usually the outlier with extreme intensities, but occasionally it is on to something. NHC usually plays it conservative with intensity forecasts unless there is clear RI in progress.

[Kingarabian]

Almost a complete eyewall now:


Rate its going, probably see a firmly closed eyewall in about 6 hours. After that we can expect the eye to clear out. Also this is not a pinhole eye-type.

[jasons2k]

Surprised nobody's seemed to notice the 5PM advisory has been out for about ten minutes, it's now being taken across Vero, hooking up with I-4 in the central part of the State.

Here in Tampa our probabilities went up from 36/11/5 to 62/31/17 in the space of one advisory interval.

Has Tampa ever been hit by a major coming from East to West like this?

Not in the historical record, no. And that would be nearly impossible. Not totally impossible - but pretty close.

The most recent major to impact the Tampa Bay Area directly was the 1921 hurricane, making landfall near Tarpon Springs.

[Sanibel]

Looks west of predicted track...

[cjrciadt]

Track from 5pm TPC has a new attraction at Disney World.
Hurricane Dorian.

This weekend was the opening of Galaxys Edge here at WDW. Plus the holiday weekend.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1166818730204004352

[weathaguyry]

My sister is currently at UMiami in Coral Gables, many of the parents are nervous and flying their kids home. I think with the SFL building codes that a college campus may be a decent location to ride out a hurricane, especially since they will have priority in getting power restored and getting resources. Either way we shall see if the trend south continues, as Dorian seems pretty angry right now...

[Kazmit]

Dorian strengthening earlier than expected will lead to more EWRCs in the long run. This will cause him to expand quite a bit over the next few days- think about how much bigger Irma got from when it first became a hurricane in the eastern MDR to when it made landfall in Florida.

[HurricaneBelle]

Surprised nobody's seemed to notice the 5PM advisory has been out for about ten minutes, it's now being taken across Vero, hooking up with I-4 in the central part of the State.

Here in Tampa our probabilities went up from 36/11/5 to 62/31/17 in the space of one advisory interval.

Has Tampa ever been hit by a major coming from East to West like this?

Not something that held as a 3 or better coming "backdoor" across the state. In 04, Frances and Jeanne were strong TSs when they made it here, but if Dorian hits as a 4 or 5 on the east coast, it could be a 1 or a 2 over here.

[supercane4867]

The current position of Dorian is actually way outside of previous 5 day cones.

[BYG Jacob]

Almost a complete eyewall now:
https://i.imgur.com/SKPFXGB.jpg

Rate its going, probably see a firmly closed eyewall in about 6 hours. After that we can expect the eye to clear out. Also this is not a pinhole eye-type.

By the time he gets his eyewall sorted he might be a major.

[HurricaneBelle]

Track from 5pm TPC has a new attraction at Disney World.
Hurricane Dorian.

This weekend was the opening of Galaxys Edge here at WDW. Plus the holiday weekend.

Maybe they can quickly convert it into a "Hurricane Heist" attraction like that movie from last year.

[p1nheadlarry]

My sister is currently at UMiami in Coral Gables, many of the parents are nervous and flying their kids home. I think with the SFL building codes that a college campus may be a decent location to ride out a hurricane, especially since they will have priority in getting power restored and getting resources. Either way we shall see if the trend south continues, as Dorian seems pretty angry right now...

Some colleges kick everyone out of the dorms, even at the coast. For example this blew up for UNC-Wilmington during Matthew, because they opened classes and kids coming back got trapped by floodwaters.

[Highteeld]

could be as high as 90 mph right now

[drewschmaltz]

The current position of Dorian is actually way outside of previous 5 day cones.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ac8f014b53a123276bfff4d68494d0b89b8ccce685793b5c884600e23185814b.gif

I rarely bring up analogs due to my limited knowledge. But being from Florida born in the early 80s and being named Andrew, I've always paid attention to it.

Is it JUST me or is the remainder of this track and setup way way too much like Andrew?

[fllawyer]

The current position of Dorian is actually way outside of previous 5 day cones.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ac8f014b53a123276bfff4d68494d0b89b8ccce685793b5c884600e23185814b.gif

I rarely bring up analogs due to my limited knowledge. But being from Florida born in the early 80s and being named Andrew, I've always paid attention to it.

Is it JUST me or is the remainder of this track and setup way way too much like Andrew?

Andrew was way NE of this. Curved north well before it ever got the the islands. Then headed due west for several days.

[Bocadude85]

The current position of Dorian is actually way outside of previous 5 day cones.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ac8f014b53a123276bfff4d68494d0b89b8ccce685793b5c884600e23185814b.gif

I rarely bring up analogs due to my limited knowledge. But being from Florida born in the early 80s and being named Andrew, I've always paid attention to it.

Is it JUST me or is the remainder of this track and setup way way too much like Andrew?

Based upon modeling, Andrew, 1947 Ft.Lauderdale hurricane, Betsy, Dora are all ok analogs for Dorian track wise once east of the Bahamas.

[KC7NEC]

Three Landfalls??

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/116 ... 53472?s=19

Go home Dorian your drunk

[StormPyrate]

Is there still a satellite loop that you can overly the official track on? I sure miss the old floaters the new sliders are great but don't see how to overlay the track