ATL: DORIAN - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

Thanks for providing Maue’s Twitter feed. Saved it so for future Euro runs. Amazing how consistent the Euro is on south florida. Who will win out? Euro and Ukmet to the south or Gfs, Navgem Hwrf to the north???


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[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Here's the tweet. Remember to use the copy link, not block copy

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166866969708105729

It looks like this: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166866969708105729

if there's a ? at the end, like ?t=34 or some other text delete the ? and all text after to get the tweet to show up.

i dont ever like bringing this up but based in this picture is a katrina like track possible or no?

[beachman80]

Here's the tweet. Remember to use the copy link, not block copy

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166866969708105729

It looks like this: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166866969708105729

if there's a ? at the end, like ?t=34 or some other text delete the ? and all text after to get the tweet to show up.

i dont ever like bringing this up but based in this picture is a katrina like track possible or no?

Going into Florida and out of Florida, I think that track is actually very likely. Once it gets into the Gulf, I don't know the dynamics and steering currents and where it will go from there. I've seen some models stall it out in the Gulf, others give it a sharp north turn or even NE turn, others a NW turn. So who knows. But as far as the Bahamas region and south Florida, a Katrina track is where I'm placing my bets.

[Kat5]

The 18z Euro has it coming in with a slight northern component, might be getting into agreement with the GFS.

[northjaxpro]

The 18z Euro has it coming in with a slight northern component, might be getting into agreement with the GFS.

Hmmm... Well this is an interesting EURO run here.

[lsuhurricane]

The 18z Euro has it coming in with a slight northern component, might be getting into agreement with the GFS.

Its the exact same as the 12z run. No northern component noted as it only extends to 84 hrs

[beachman80]

The 18z Euro has it coming in with a slight northern component, might be getting into agreement with the GFS.

GFS is still further north. I don't see too much difference in the 18z Euro from the 12z one.

[Bocadude85]

The 18z Euro has it coming in with a slight northern component, might be getting into agreement with the GFS.

Hmmm... Well this is an interesting EURO run here.

The 18z EURO is over Abaco moving due west just like the 12z showed

[South Texas Storms]

How far out does the 18z Euro go?

90 hours. 6z/18z Euro Ensembles go out to 144 hours.

[beachman80]

TWC Meteorologist just said the 18z Euro is same as 12z Euro and still targeting south Florida.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The 18z Euro has it coming in with a slight northern component, might be getting into agreement with the GFS.

Hmmm... Well this is an interesting EURO run here.

Don’t overread what it’s showing. That run was going to SOFI

[Blown Away]

The 18z Euro has it coming in with a slight northern component, might be getting into agreement with the GFS.

Its the exact same as the 12z run. No northern component noted as it only extends to 84 hrs

Can you post a graphic?

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensemble runs are interesting - split into two camps. Those southern ones go as far south as the Keys and Straits of Florida similar to ICON:

[Bocadude85]

Models really taking aim on Great Abaco, hopefully they are getting prepared for a very powerful hurricane.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166869640531890176

[beachman80]

18Z GFS ensemble runs are interesting - split into two camps. Those southern ones go as far south as the Keys and Straits of Florida similar to ICON:

https://i.postimg.cc/6p1Cwk1f/05-L-gefs-18z.png

Damn New Orleans. No bueno.

[ronjon]

The 18z Euro has it coming in with a slight northern component, might be getting into agreement with the GFS.

Its the exact same as the 12z run. No northern component noted as it only extends to 84 hrs

Can you post a graphic?

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166866969708105729

[stormlover2013]

The 18z Euro has it coming in with a slight northern component, might be getting into agreement with the GFS.

No it’s not lol

[gatorcane]

Updated spaghetti:

[gatorcane]

Yikes 18Z HWRF