ATL: DORIAN - Models

[SconnieCane]

It always does that, lol. Now that Dorian has cleared the Greater Antilles without significant disruption and built a proper core, that scenario doesn't seem so farfetched as before.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Hwrf always bombs the system

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Keeping a clear eye on Euro.

If that trat holds we get some nasty effects on the west coast and inland

Tampa and Sarasota need to keep a clear eye

[Ken711]

Yikes 18Z HWRF

https://i.postimg.cc/C5Nm4vMr/hwrf-sat-IR-05-L-16.png

Buzzsaw monster.

[Bocadude85]

Updated spaghetti:

https://i.postimg.cc/gcQ9XjXC/storm-05-ens.gif

Models really loving the Melbourne/Cape area, could we be seeing history in the making with a major hurricane landfall in Brevard County, I guess only time will tell.

[gatorcane]

https://i.imgur.com/TXFdaba.png

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

Bumping this. You can clearly see from the 12Z Euro ensembles that the members that show a more intense hurricane turn more due west into South Florida or even the FL Straits with the members that are less intense head more WNW. The thing that makes me think the South Florida members may be correct is that I don’t recall a CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Florida east coast north of Stuart looking back in history. Can anybody verify?

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://i.imgur.com/TXFdaba.png

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

Bumping this. You can clearly see from the 12Z Euro ensembles that the members that show a more intense hurricane turn more due west into South Florida with the members that are less intense head more WNW. The thing that makes me think the South Florida members may be correct is that I don’t recall a CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Florida east coast north of Stuart looking back in history:

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

Plus the Euro and UK are sticking to this run after run after run. IF this continues well into tomorrow, it would be hard to ignore.

[Bocadude85]

https://i.imgur.com/TXFdaba.png

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

Bumping this. You can clearly see from the 12Z Euro ensembles that the members that show a more intense hurricane turn more due west into South Florida or even the FL Straits with the members that are less intense head more WNW. The thing that makes me think the South Florida members may be correct is that I don’t recall a CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Florida east coast north of Stuart looking back in history. Can anybody verify?

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

No major hurricane has ever made landfall north of Martin County as far as records go. Dora of 1964 is as close as one came.

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://i.imgur.com/TXFdaba.png

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

Bumping this. You can clearly see from the 12Z Euro ensembles that the members that show a more intense hurricane turn more due west into South Florida or even the FL Straits with the members that are less intense head more WNW. The thing that makes me think the South Florida members may be correct is that I don’t recall a CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Florida east coast north of Stuart looking back in history. Can anybody verify?

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

No major hurricane has ever made landfall north of Indian River County as far as records go. Dora of 1964 is as close as one came.

North of Martin

[Jonny]

The thing that makes me think the South Florida members may be correct is that I don’t recall a CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Florida east coast north of Stuart looking back in history. Can anybody verify?

http://www.twitter.com/philklotzbach/st ... 0274168834

[Bocadude85]

Bumping this. You can clearly see from the 12Z Euro ensembles that the members that show a more intense hurricane turn more due west into South Florida or even the FL Straits with the members that are less intense head more WNW. The thing that makes me think the South Florida members may be correct is that I don’t recall a CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Florida east coast north of Stuart looking back in history. Can anybody verify?

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

No major hurricane has ever made landfall north of Indian River County as far as records go. Dora of 1964 is as close as one came.

North of Martin

Correct, I don’t know why I typed Indian River

[GeneratorPower]

https://i.imgur.com/TXFdaba.png

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

Bumping this. You can clearly see from the 12Z Euro ensembles that the members that show a more intense hurricane turn more due west into South Florida with the members that are less intense head more WNW. The thing that makes me think the South Florida members may be correct is that I don’t recall a CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Florida east coast north of Stuart looking back in history:

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

Plus the Euro and UK are sticking to this run after run after run. IF this continues well into tomorrow, it would be hard to ignore.

Look at what those ensembles are telling you! Stronger storms are turning further south!! Weak storms going north. Exactly as expected for a ridge above a storm!

[Blown Away]

Am I reading the Euro Ensembles map Gator posted correctly showing Dorian as a TS all the up to the left turn?

[toad strangler]

Hmmmm.... potential stall. Product of that are some N moving floaters

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166885764170440707

[otowntiger]

Updated spaghetti:

https://i.postimg.cc/gcQ9XjXC/storm-05-ens.gif

Models really loving the Melbourne/Cape area, could we be seeing history in the making with a major hurricane landfall in Brevard County, I guess only time will tell.

It does seem that a number of models have been wanting to send Dorian to visit us here in Orlando. If this storm comes in hot at that angle say around Melbourne that is the worst case scenario for Metro Orlando. Could get winds in excess of 100mph. Would be worse than Charley in ‘04 which was a pretty good blow.

[caneman]

https://i.imgur.com/TXFdaba.png

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

Bumping this. You can clearly see from the 12Z Euro ensembles that the members that show a more intense hurricane turn more due west into South Florida or even the FL Straits with the members that are less intense head more WNW. The thing that makes me think the South Florida members may be correct is that I don’t recall a CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Florida east coast north of Stuart looking back in history. Can anybody verify?

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

You're assuming it will be a cat. 4 or 5 and you cant make that assumption

[Ken711]

Hmmmm.... potential stall. Product of that are some N moving floaters

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166885764170440707

What's the impact of a stall on intensity?

[Tyler Penland]

Hmmmm.... potential stall. Product of that are some N moving floaters

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/1166885764170440707

What's the impact of a stall on intensity?

Generally gradual weakening due to upwelling of cooler water.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://i.imgur.com/TXFdaba.png

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

Bumping this. You can clearly see from the 12Z Euro ensembles that the members that show a more intense hurricane turn more due west into South Florida or even the FL Straits with the members that are less intense head more WNW. The thing that makes me think the South Florida members may be correct is that I don’t recall a CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Florida east coast north of Stuart looking back in history. Can anybody verify?

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

You're assuming it will be a cat. 4 or 5 and you cant make that assumption

It's cat 3 and that's what NHC is predicting. Less than cat 3 all bets off. Lots have hit north of Martin cat 2 or less.

[Jr0d]

https://i.imgur.com/TXFdaba.png

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

Bumping this. You can clearly see from the 12Z Euro ensembles that the members that show a more intense hurricane turn more due west into South Florida or even the FL Straits with the members that are less intense head more WNW. The thing that makes me think the South Florida members may be correct is that I don’t recall a CAT 4 or 5 hitting the Florida east coast north of Stuart looking back in history. Can anybody verify?

https://i.imgur.com/qzBMHXi.png

In 1880 a storm hit what is now Cocoa Beach, just south of Cape Canaveral. The records give it 105mph winds but obviously that is just an educated guess.