ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

678
URNT12 KNHC 290233
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 29/02:04:20Z
B. 19.45 deg N 065.92 deg W
C. 700 mb 3014 m
D. 994 mb
E. 105 deg 11 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C12
H. 71 kt
I. 050 deg 6 nm 01:58:00Z
J. 120 deg 64 kt
K. 049 deg 9 nm 01:57:00Z
L. 53 kt
M. 223 deg 5 nm 02:08:30Z
N. 314 deg 51 kt
O. 223 deg 5 nm 02:08:30Z
P. 6 C / 3052 m
Q. 14 C / 3049 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF302 1205A DORIAN OB 20
MAX FL WIND 64 KT 049 / 9 NM 01:57:00Z
;

[SoupBone]

Pretty decent amount of dry air being pulled in on his Southwest end, but he sure is fighting it off admirably so far.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I remember watching Michael last year. He kept getting hit by shear and dry air, up until the last 12 hours, when he just exploded. This thing might look ragged now, but it doesn't take long for a mature TC to sort itself out.

That storm was insane. Just kept intensifying nonstop until it hit Florida

[SunnyThoughts]

WTNT35 KNHC 290239
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND DORIAN STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 66.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[Hurricane Andrew]

I remember watching Michael last year. He kept getting hit by shear and dry air, up until the last 12 hours, when he just exploded. This thing might look ragged now, but it doesn't take long for a mature TC to sort itself out.

That storm was insane. Just kept intensifying nonstop until it hit Florida

When these big ones get going, they'll do their own thing. I'd say we're looking at a pretty dangerous situation right now, and everyone in Florida needs to be taking this seriously.

[TallyTracker]

Surprised the NHC is only going with 115 mph yet despite the recent intensification.

INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 25.7N 71.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 27.0N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 28.4N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

[Jr0d]

Definately a little dry air getting mixed in now. That will prevent any RI for at least a few hours, in my humble opinion.

Trying to stay wake long enough for the 11pm update and new cone of uncertainty. I took sleeping meds otherwise I'd be glued to my phone checking every new satellite pic and update and up all night.

[edu2703]

Surprised the NHC is only going with 115 mph yet despite the recent intensification.

INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 25.7N 71.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 27.0N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 28.4N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

NHC is usually conservative on intensity forecast

[MetroMike]

Update is out!

[STRiZZY]

Surprised the NHC is only going with 115 mph yet despite the recent intensification.

INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 21.0N 67.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 22.9N 68.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 24.5N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 25.7N 71.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 27.0N 75.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 28.4N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND

They're playing it sade atm.. Still a long ways to go. 115mph is enough to grab peoples attention.

[norva13x]

Looks like it inched a tiny bit north to me?

[STRiZZY]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=JUA-N0Q-1-12

Eye has filled in. Looks like dry air is infiltrating?

[BobHarlem]

11PM advisory seemed like a forecast punt, probably due to 0z's basically remaining steady.

[MetroMike]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=JUA-N0Q-1-12

Eye has filled in. Looks like dry air is infiltrating?

Just feedback from the radar..pixels.

[Steve]

If NHC is right, that's a historic track for sure that none of us might ever see again. I suspect they are too far north or much less likely, way too far south.

[HDGator]

11PM advisory seemed like a forecast punt, probably due to 0z's basically remaining steady.

It looks to me they've been punting on the 4 day+ divergence for a couple forecasts now.
There's still too much divergance on the strength of the developing ridge and resulting magnitude of the turn west.
If the models don't align soon, they'll have to choose sides or someone's in for a big surprise.

[Frank P]

Looks like it inched a tiny bit north to me?

No change in landfall location

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/D ... _with_line

[NDG]

Long day working in Miami today, glad they still had water at Publix that I can bring back to Orlando tomorrow.

Hoping is not a direct hit to Brevard County into the Orlando area, that's the worst case scenario for Orlando, there's a lot of flat swampy marshy area between the coast and Orlando where I don't see Dorian loosing much strength on that latest track, hopefully it will change which I am sure it will.

[psyclone]

NHC has remained pretty consistent on an east central fl landfall. Just because we don't have a history of majors in that region (in our relatively short historical base) doesn't mean they're exempt. It's a coastline adjacent to warm ocean. there's no reason a hurricane can't move west at 27 or 28 latitude if steering favors that.

[AxaltaRacing24]

NHC has remained pretty consistent on an east central fl landfall. Just because we don't have a history of majors in that region (in our relatively short historical base) doesn't mean they're exempt. It's a coastline adjacent to warm ocean. there's no reason a hurricane can't move west at 27 or 28 latitude if steering favors that.

Yes, but they have not "picked" a landfall location yet in their track. Everybody from Miami to Daytona is in play.