ATL: DORIAN - Models

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bella_may
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2061 Postby bella_may » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:55 pm

STRiZZY wrote:GFS initialized 15MB too high from the get go btw.

Can’t believe how bad the GFS has been recently
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2062 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:55 pm

Legacy GFS nearly identical to 18z out to 84 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2063 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:55 pm

Image

[Forecast hour] 90
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2064 Postby birddogsc » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:56 pm

GFS @ 78...

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Last edited by birddogsc on Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2065 Postby LarryWx » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:56 pm

0Z GFS May hit GA. Ouch.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2066 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:58 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2067 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:58 pm

GFS looks to have a shortwave rolling by to the north which influences the movement. You can see it at 500mb. Either it would have to dip south or if it turned west later, it's into the CONUS instead of the Gulf.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2900&fh=90
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2068 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:58 pm

Heading towards Jacksonville.. Classic GFS East/Weaking ridge bias.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2069 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Aug 28, 2019 10:59 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_17.png

102Hr
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2070 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:00 pm

GFS really needs to sort out its issues with Synoptics...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2071 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:00 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2072 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:00 pm

Steve wrote:ICON has gone bonkers. Haha. The stall looks to be avoidance of some of the northern Bahamian Kingdom (or taking time to hit them all), then it hits Broward/PB County and runs north through Florida. That's an interesting twist for a lower tier model.


True, but a lot of people were hanging their hat on the ICONs accuracy for a previous system. Now it's hot crap? :lol:

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2073 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:00 pm

The gfs and its classic weakening of the ridge. I'll shift back south by tomorrow afternoon. :oops:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2074 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:01 pm

If the Euro stays its course, either the GFS or Euro will fail miserably with this. The GFS is definitely sticking to its guns about that ridge being much weaker.
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STRiZZY
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2075 Postby STRiZZY » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:01 pm

Image

114HR
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2076 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:02 pm

Legacy brings it into Cape Canaveral Monday morning, roughly at cat 3 strength.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2077 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:02 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:GFS really needs to sort out its issues with Synoptics...


So this has happened and you know it's wrong? I have to say I'm getting tired of reading the same nonsense over and over. Classic GFS bias, even though it's a completely different core, and claims that what the GFS is showing won't happen for no apparent reason other than it's not what the euro shows. I don't know where Dorian is going but I sure would like to see more evidence that its solution is somehow impossible.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2078 Postby AdamFirst » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:02 pm

Legacy GFS is sending Dorian into Cape Canaveral, as operational GFS grants us the ever elusive Jacksonville hit
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2079 Postby MrJames » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:03 pm

Looks like the GFS is heading for the FL/GA line.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2080 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:03 pm

Ukmet landfall around WPB

Edit: read it wrong initially. still has WSW dip near end before turning back wnw
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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