ATL: DORIAN - Models

[CrazyC83]

Garbage in means garbage out. But if Dorian was initialized around 988, would it had made a difference?

[SFLcane]

The shift north continues tonight with the 00z suite. Euro will come around.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS really needs to sort out its issues with Synoptics...

So this has happened and you know it's wrong? I have to say I'm getting tired of reading the same nonsense over and over. Classic GFS bias, even though it's a completely different core, and claims that what the GFS is showing won't happen for no apparent reason other than it's not what the euro shows. I don't know where Dorian is going but I sure would like to see more evidence that its solution is somehow impossible.

It’s happened before. Not saying it’s a invalid run, despite initializing with higher pressures to begin with.

[tolakram]

[AxaltaRacing24]

The shift north continues tonight with the 00z suite. Euro will come around.

Not really. ICON stayed put and the UK stuck to its guns again.

[STRiZZY]

GFS really needs to sort out its issues with Synoptics...

So this has happened and you know it's wrong? I have to say I'm getting tired of reading the same nonsense over and over. Classic GFS bias, even though it's a completely different core, and claims that what the GFS is showing won't happen for no apparent reason other than it's not what the euro shows. I don't know where Dorian is going but I sure would like to see more evidence that its solution is somehow impossible.

Relax, there's no secret that each model has strengths and weaknesses. GFS has an Eastern bias even for snow storms. All the time? No, but enough to call attention to it. Yesterday it was flirting with an OBX landfall.

[SFLcane]

The shift north continues tonight with the 00z suite. Euro will come around.

Not really. ICON stayed put and the UK stuck to its guns again.

UK shifted north to

[BobHarlem]

The shift north continues tonight with the 00z suite. Euro will come around.

Euro probably will wind up further south.

[stormhunter7]

So GFS/old 00z has Gonzo data from this evening in it and is a little more to the right as it runs up into northern Florida............ Gonzo and Kermit are back home, but gathered data along the way home.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The shift north continues tonight with the 00z suite. Euro will come around.

Not really. ICON stayed put and the UK stuck to its guns again.

UK shifted north to

It hit West Palm earlier too though.

[Steve]

GFS really needs to sort out its issues with Synoptics...

So this has happened and you know it's wrong? I have to say I'm getting tired of reading the same nonsense over and over. Classic GFS bias, even though it's a completely different core, and claims that what the GFS is showing won't happen for no apparent reason other than it's not what the euro shows. I don't know where Dorian is going but I sure would like to see more evidence that its solution is somehow impossible.

Fair. But AutoP is a quality poster. Everyone knows the GFS, and its many upgrades, has a bias when dealing with ridges breaking down. It's been that way for a couple of deccades back to the MRF/AVN or whatever else it used to be in parts. It displayed it last year and has again this year. What I can't say is whether that's right this time or not. Strange track and landfalling on the GA Coastline? I wouldn't think it's impossible, but I'd need something else to back it up to give it much more than a fleeting chance. JMO

[tolakram]

[MrJames]

New UKMet. Same landfall but now with a hook to the N over land.

[StPeteMike]

I’m confused why they’re keeping the forecasts at Cat 3 for peak intensity. I’m not seeing anything preventing it from Cat 4. Let’s remember they had 75 mph forecasted for Thurs 8am and look where we are at...

[tgenius]

Interesting that icon 00z had a similar sw dip at end to get it almost down to Miami before that stall...

[STRiZZY]

I’m confused why they’re keeping the forecasts at Cat 3 for peak intensity. I’m not seeing anything preventing it from Cat 4. Let’s remember they had 75 mph forecasted for Thurs 8am and look where we are at...

The NHC tends to be a touch conservative with intensity. Especially this far out.

[AutoPenalti]

I’m confused why they’re keeping the forecasts at Cat 3 for peak intensity. I’m not seeing anything preventing it from Cat 4. Let’s remember they had 75 mph forecasted for Thurs 8am and look where we are at...

NHC tend to be more conservative with intensity forecasts. It’s extremely hard to forecast that from 4-5 days out.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Interesting that icon 00z had a similar sw dip at end to get it almost down to Miami before that stall...

Will be interesting to see if the euro starts to show that.

[Blown Away]

We are running out of days, these models are closing in on Central Florida, as rare as it is for a Major strike from the SE, I’m starting to think it’s going to happen...

[Frank2]

Model shift north was noted by the NHC forecast at the 11 p.m. TCD when he said the building ridge is uncertain. The 00z GFS is indicating a Jacksonville into Georgia landfall, the high retreating eastward rapidly before Dorian arrives...