ATL: DORIAN - Models

[shah83]

CMC does a stall, dip south.

[AxaltaRacing24]

CMC is now also showing the WSW dip.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think one word is the defining factor creating the differences between the North vs South camp. That word is SPEED. The models in the South camp appear to have a much slower forward speed than the models in the North camp do. This can make all the difference in the world when it comes to timing and strength of the ridge. The situation is fluid and always in flux.

[sma10]

Canadian landfalls around Jupiter

And stalls right there, btw

[AxaltaRacing24]

Canadian landfalls around Jupiter

And stalls right there, btw

Yeah that's a devastating run.

[caneseddy]

00z model outputs so far:

GFS: Florida/Georgia Line
Legacy: Cape Canaveral
UKMET: Palm Beach County (specifically Lake Worth area)
ICON: Broward/Palm Beach
CMC: Jupiter

In short..no one on the east coast of Florida is out of the woods yet

Euro upcoming as well as the ensembles..stay tuned!!

[lsuhurricane]

Believe it or not, this Canadian run is a bit realistic after reviewing the upper level steering. High is bridging across the Eastern shore from the west. Will create very weak steering influences until something gives

[SouthFLTropics]

Icon and CMC are picking up on the WSW dip but I think it should be noted that the UKie was the one to sniff it out first. UKMET has had some bold calls in this part of the world the past few years and is earning my respect.

[HDGator]

Looks like we can add CMC to the Uk/euro camp. Stronger ridge much flatter approach to the coast near lake okee

It will be interesting to see what happens with the 00z Euro with the new GFS 250+ miles north from these globals and the GFS legacy halfway in between at 5 days.
Maybe I'm wrong or either it's the smartest kid in the room sniffing something that the others didn't see or it's missed something in this setup.
It's a shame this occurs with a major hurricane only a few days out that has the whole state of Florida in it's bullseye now.
I guess we'll see.

[Steve]

Looks like we can add CMC to the Uk/euro camp. Stronger ridge much flatter approach to the coast near lake okee

0z Canadian also showing the wsw dip right before landfall, landfall is a touch farther south and much slower then the 12z

Canadian is different than the GFS because of the timing of the shortwave. It almost provides the alley for the north move at first (which it still might do later in the run), but the shortwave is off to its northeast which is a different timing and configuration than the GFS which nudges it up due to the shortwave.

Through 168, Canadian slows down and moves north inside of Florida like many of the models are now doing. Worst for eastern Florida and certainly enough time to knock out power to millions of people.

[stormlover2013]

Short term I think the forecast is pretty good, long term going to be a struggle with upper level pattern

[AtlanticWind]

I gotta disagree. When you encounter a model with a well known bias, it's not about personal biases. You simply have to consider what you know. GFS could be right or the most correct. We're going to find out. I'm anti-state casting or personal biasing to the core. My location has been up there as "not a state-caster" for years, because state casting annoys me. And too many people do it. Just the same, ignoring the obvious - year after year - biases with the GFS and its multitude of upgrades ignores knowledge we already have.

That's why the NHC uses a consensus models weighted toward some more than others
Models do have definite biases as we have seen over the years.
Hopefully the models will start to narrow the likely landfall by tomorrow evening

[AxaltaRacing24]

Icon and CMC are picking up on the WSW dip but I think it should be noted that the UKie was the one to sniff it out first. UKMET has had some bold calls in this part of the world the past few years and is earning my respect.

Yep. For now, it seems that everything except the GFS is starting to latch on to this. Now will the Euro follow the majority or go towards the GFS?

[AutoPenalti]

Maybe read these, look at the error numbers, look at the individual model performance compared to the blends, especially the Florida State Super Ensemble, and realize that sticking to either the euro or GFS is folly. In both reports table 3a, near the bottom, is what you are looking for.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2017.pdf
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2018.pdf

One does not throw out the Euro because it's south, nor the UKMet. One does not throw out the GFS because it's north. I said this a number of posts ago but the GFS more northerly solution is pulling the consensus north, which makes the overall forecast more accurate.

Mark, no where did I say models should be thrown out because they are too far south or too far north. There’s going to be errors obviously. Heck, no model has gotten it right in the short term, except maybe the UKMET I guess. I questioned the GFS because just last night around this time the GFS had it offshore near the Carolinas, by the morning, it was further south and by the afternoon, it had landfall near south central Florida. Now we are back up north to Jacksonville/Georgia border. It has issues still. I believe no other model that I’ve seen has had that kind of jump in one day.

[LarryWx]

0z CMC 126 is 400 miles ESE of the 12Z 138. Just a slight change. Instead of going into the Gulf, it stalls and then turns up the peninsula.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is running...I’m curious to see if it goes bonkers again with the intensity like it did at 18z.

[sma10]

00z model outputs so far:

GFS: Florida/Georgia Line
Legacy: Cape Canaveral
UKMET: Palm Beach County (specifically Lake Worth area)
ICON: Broward/Palm Beach
CMC: Jupiter

In short..no one on the east coast of Florida is out of the woods yet

Euro upcoming as well as the ensembles..stay tuned!!

Nice summary. For me most notable is that none of the above have abandoned their basic position. All are slingshotting quite noticeably from NW to West, with the exception of the GFS (WNW)

[StPeteMike]

If the storm does do a straight shot north, definitely would like one east of Tampa Bay than west.

[Steve]

You can see pretty easily what happens with the CMC. It stalls a bit because it doesn't get picked up by the shortwave and the steering currents collapse. Another shortwave is coming, but it's not the player. It's a push coming from the ESE/SE of Dorian in the form of a rebuilding high pressure. You can see it plainly in the dark red and how that moves toward it and pushes it up through Florida and into Central North Carolina.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=198

[AxaltaRacing24]

Seems that so far tonight all the models except the GFS (ICON, CMC, UK) show PBC landfall. This Euro run will be very telling. Is the UK camp the outlier, or the GFS?