ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Probably due to the dry air intrusion, pressure is back up almost 10 mb. SFMR barely supports a hurricane now too.

Agreed, Dorian definitely does not look like a rapidly strengthening storm at the moment. Aside from the obvious dry slot cutting into its core, another clear sign that Dorian has leveled off is the blob of convection to the ESE of the center. Seeing feeder bands contain deeper convection than the core of the storm itself tends to suggest pretty strongly it still needs quite a bit of work to really get itself together. And that could be a bad thing, since it might mean that Dorian could hold off on RI until closer to the coast, making it less prone to pre-landfall ERCs.

[ozonepete]

GFS shifted north again. Landfall on the Georgia coast. Actually this seems very possible if they've been forecasting too strong of an STR and if so I have a feeling the 00Z euro will be shifted north as well. We will see in the next few hours.

[Steve]

True. And we only have like 170 years of semi-reliable data which is a minute sample in time. But if something hasn’t happened before in at least that many generations, you have to logically question it until it happens.

I can't help but be skeptical of it until I see it happen. It is not impossible, but getting a landfall up there is very difficult and would take unique circumstances.

Why is it difficult? Just because it hasn't happened in our lifetime? I think Dorian could landfall anywhere on the east coast of Florida and the odds are all the same.

Best guess is the angle of the coast. It just doesn't happen much/ever. I don't know how many times Florida has been hit from the East or Eastsoutheast in the last 150 years. But when it has, it's always been South Florida that sticks out into the ocean.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1166926303901229058

[FLeastcoast]

I went to the grocery store tonight to get some nonperishables and bottled water. Managed to get the last two cases of water. Most of the bread was already gone as well. Got gas in both cars too as a precaution. Folks here are taking this very seriously.

Where is here?

Tallahassee, FL Currently barely in the cone. We’re probably 6 days from any major impacts.

Up here near Gainesville FL it is the same. No water at all on the shelves at Walmart or Winn Dixie and only slim pickings at the local neighborhood grocery store

[floridasun78]

GFS shifted north again. Landfall on the Georgia coast. Actually this seems very possible if they've been forecasting too strong of an STR and if so I have a feeling the 00Z euro will be shifted north as well. We will see in the next few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/EOxtIEt.png

gfs been north models for past few runs i dont think that euro will join gfs most weatherman even twc talk alot about euro

[weathaguyry]

It is very easy for a tiny system like Dorian to have a pressure jump suddenly due to a dry air intrusion, but I believe it was due in part to the mountains of PR disrupting inflow somewhat, which is already resolving itself. This can easily go the other way, and it wouldn't take much for Dorian to strengthen pretty significantly, and the sooner it can establish a substantial eyewall and core, the sooner an EWRC can begin. This is very important because a larger system approaching would increase the threat of storm surge and high wind over a larger area. My prayers are out to all the folks in Florida as they are preparing for this nasty labor day weekend surprise.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1166926303901229058

Certainly does look like dry air. I thought the degraded core appearence from this AMSU pass was due to resolution, especially after that GMI pass depicted a healthy core.

[StPeteMike]

Already people clearing shelves of my Publix here in St. Petersburg of water. Glad they’re getting it now than waiting last second but wasn’t thinking it would be this crazy already.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone,

It seems at leaast at this point all it took was me going to prep the Key Largo house just in case. I get back to Miami and it would seem another wind shield wiper back and forth to the north this time. I am not sure I have a lot of confindence in the GFS but it has been consistent on moving this storm to NE florida and up the coast. I guess hopefully we will start to get a clearer picture in the next day or so of where it will go,

[AxaltaRacing24]

Evening everyone,

It seems at leaast at this point all it took was me going to prep the Key Largo house just in case. I get back to Miami and it would seem another wind shield wiper back and forth to the north this time. I am not sure I have a lot of confindence in the GFS but it has been consistent on moving this storm to NE florida and up the coast. I guess hopefully we will start to get a clearer picture in the next day or so of where it will go,

If the Euro stays south, the GFS would be on its own island for now.

[Hammy]

Been away from the computer most of the night, was expecting something stronger than this when I came back. Looks like I shouldn't have backed off calling for shear once it left the Caribbean.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Racing24,

Have been out of touch for a few hours, if possible what do the other models show as of now. Earlier today several had Palm Beach even Broward, have they moved north like the GFS.

[Bocadude85]

Racing24,

Have been out of touch for a few hours, if possible what do the other models show as of now. Earlier today several had Palm Beach even Broward, have they moved north like the GFS.

The UKMET,ICON,Canadian are into SE Florida, we are waiting for the new Euro run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Racing24,

Have been out of touch for a few hours, if possible what do the other models show as of now. Earlier today several had Palm Beach even Broward, have they moved north like the GFS.

ICON: PBC/Broward
Legacy: Cape
UKMET: PBC
CMC: Jup

So the Euro will reveal if this is GFS run was onto something or if it is on its own.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you so much Boca, so no big changes from the other models. I am a bit surprised with that based on how I see them presenting the cone out in time.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The reason its very hard to get a landfall on the Ga Coast is the angle of approach. The storm has to approach almost perpendicular to the coast if it doesnt it will generally landfall in N FL or SC. It can happen, but its almost always a near miss if its close at all. You wont get a landfall in GA on a storm that is recurving. Hugo's track if you moved it about 100 miles south would be the kind of angle you would look for in a GA direct hit

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you as well Racing24

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks as though its starting to mix out the dry air. It didnt get all the way to the core and it looks like the eye might pop out again on the last couple of frames

[Highteeld]

Looks as though its starting to mix out the dry air. It didnt get all the way to the core and it looks like the eye might pop out again on the last couple of frames

SFMR would tend to agree with you. Back up to 74 knots.