ATL: DORIAN - Models

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS: most members holds onto a move through FL into the Gulf before turning north. Way different than the operational. Keep in mind that the operational is the FV3 whereas the GEFS is based on an older version. That sometimes may explain when there is a big discrepancy.

[Craters]

I gotta disagree. When you encounter a model with a well known bias, it's not about personal biases. You simply have to consider what you know. GFS could be right or the most correct. We're going to find out. I'm anti-state casting or personal biasing to the core. My location has been up there as "not a state-caster" for years, because state casting annoys me. And too many people do it. Just the same, ignoring the obvious - year after year - biases with the GFS and its multitude of upgrades ignores knowledge we already have.

I understand that, Steve. I have to confess that the GFS has been the brunt of my own jokes for more years than I care to admit. On the other hand, this is not the legacy GFS. It seems that some pretty smart people have been working on improving it, and I, for one, certainly don't want to deny them the chance to have their work evaluated objectively. So far, there are significant and, as of yet critically unassessed, differences between the legacy version and its successor. To criticize the latter because of the former is patently unwarranted. Just because it has the same name doesn't mean that it has the same problems. I mean, just look at ANY major-league baseball team. //bias on// Just because they're still called the Astros doesn't mean they're still a lower-rung team. //bias off

P.S. -- I've been wondering for years, now -- what's a "state caster?" I'm not familiar with that particular term. Thanks!

[AxaltaRacing24]

0Z GEFS: most members holds onto a move through FL into the Gulf before turning north. Way different than the operational. Keep in mind that the operational is the FV3 whereas the GEFS is based on an older version. That sometimes may explain when there is a big discrepancy.

More south than the legacy operational. Some even miss FL to the south.

[sma10]

0Z GEFS: most members holds onto a move through FL into the Gulf before turning north. Way different than the operational. Keep in mind that the operational is the FV3 whereas the GEFS is based on an older version. That sometimes may explain when there is a big discrepancy.

Larry is there a wide spread of FL impacts? Or more concentrated?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

P.S. -- I've been wondering for years, now -- what's a "state caster?" I'm not familiar with that particular term. Thanks!

I believe a "state caster" is someone who forecasts it hitting a certain state because they live there.

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS: most members holds onto a move through FL into the Gulf before turning north. Way different than the operational. Keep in mind that the operational is the FV3 whereas the GEFS is based on an older version. That sometimes may explain when there is a big discrepancy.

Larry is there a wide spread of FL impacts? Or more concentrated?

Wide spread but stronger ones mainly S FL.

[AxaltaRacing24]

0Z GEFS: most members holds onto a move through FL into the Gulf before turning north. Way different than the operational. Keep in mind that the operational is the FV3 whereas the GEFS is based on an older version. That sometimes may explain when there is a big discrepancy.

Larry is there a wide spread of FL impacts? Or more concentrated?

woops that's the old one (delete)

[sma10]

I gotta disagree. When you encounter a model with a well known bias, it's not about personal biases. You simply have to consider what you know. GFS could be right or the most correct. We're going to find out. I'm anti-state casting or personal biasing to the core. My location has been up there as "not a state-caster" for years, because state casting annoys me. And too many people do it. Just the same, ignoring the obvious - year after year - biases with the GFS and its multitude of upgrades ignores knowledge we already have.

I understand that, Steve. I have to confess that the GFS has been the brunt of my own jokes for more years than I care to admit. On the other hand, this is not the legacy GFS. It seems that some pretty smart people have been working on improving it, and I, for one, certainly don't want to deny them the chance to have their work evaluated objectively. So far, there are significant and, as of yet critically unassessed, differences between the legacy version and its successor. To criticize the latter because of the former is patently unwarranted. Just because it has the same name doesn't mean that it has the same problems. I mean, just look at ANY major-league baseball team. //bias on// Just because they're still called the Astros doesn't mean they're still a lower-rung team. //bias off

P.S. -- I've been wondering for years, now -- what's a "state caster?" I'm not familiar with that particular term. Thanks!

And how soon we forget. Wasn't the GFS the only model to sniff out Dorian in the central atlantic in the first place?

[lsuhurricane]

0Z GEFS: most members holds onto a move through FL into the Gulf before turning north. Way different than the operational. Keep in mind that the operational is the FV3 whereas the GEFS is based on an older version. That sometimes may explain when there is a big discrepancy.

Larry is there a wide spread of FL impacts? Or more concentrated?

Wide spread but stronger ones mainly S FL.

Where can I find the ensembles this early?

[Jonny]

www.twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/11 ... 3721648143

[LarryWx]

Larry is there a wide spread of FL impacts? Or more concentrated?

Wide spread but stronger ones mainly S FL.

Where can I find the ensembles this early?

Pay only.

[LarryWx]

0Z GEFS: most members holds onto a move through FL into the Gulf before turning north. Way different than the operational. Keep in mind that the operational is the FV3 whereas the GEFS is based on an older version. That sometimes may explain when there is a big discrepancy.

Most then recurve into AL/W FL Pan/GA and then into mainly eastern Carolinas.

[Steve]

For sure Craters. It used to be way worse than it is now, but it still gets bad when there are large model spreads. You can tell x% (best guess would be 25-30%) of where people live based on what they hold onto and argue in those circumstances - particularly when they use model y that might otherwise defy logic. It's a weird 1st world phenomenon where some people are so excited about nature that they want to possess a system for their area. /it's coming here/. For a while, the term "wishcaster" was out of vogue on the site so I went with state-caster. Hahaha. I always tried to make it a point to try to be open minded about what might happen.

LOL. "Wonderful forecaster". I haven't typed it in so long I forgot the site had an autocorrect to prevent the accusations. hahahahaha. I'm dying.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019082900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_17.png
102Hr

The problem I have with the GFS (Its late so I dont know which GFS...the one in the link) is that it shows a recurve, thats very different from a straight on hit. Thats a BIG difference between what the models think the ridge will look like. If the GFS doesnt have any other model support I would tend to not believe it

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_17.png

102Hr

The problem I have with the GFS (Its late so I dont know which GFS...the one in the link) is that it shows a recurve, thats very different from a straight on hit. Thats a BIG difference between what the models think the ridge will look like. If the GFS doesnt have any other model support I would tend to not believe it

This is why the next Euro is important. If it goes with the UK, the GFS would have nobody.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is why the next Euro is important.

That is why we are still awake

[Hurricaneman]

The problem I have with the GFS (Its late so I dont know which GFS...the one in the link) is that it shows a recurve, thats very different from a straight on hit. Thats a BIG difference between what the models think the ridge will look like. If the GFS doesnt have any other model support I would tend to not believe it

This is why the next Euro is important. If it goes with the UK, the GFS would have nobody.

But here’s the thing, the GFS could be right, it would be a big win for it if Dorian goes more north like Jacksonville or the rest could be right and landfall could be between Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral

[Steve]

Before I go to bed, I have to agree with the good Doctor Dena. There's going to be a lot of pain and probably billions of dollars of damage in Florida. For anyone on the East Coast - and that's all the way up to Duval, St. Johns, Nassau and Flagler Counties, be ready. Any slow northward climb will have onshore flow to the north of the center. Remember when Irma came up the west side of the state and all those people in SE FL with the 80-85mph winds had second thoughts about dissing it because they didn't put 2+2 together to know that the northern circulation cutting east to west north of a center is a bad place to be in a major even if you're 100-130 miles east.

[Craters]

For sure Craters. It used to be way worse than it is now, but it still gets bad when there are large model spreads. You can tell x% (best guess would be 25-30%) of where people live based on what they hold onto and argue in those circumstances - particularly when they use model y that might otherwise defy logic. It's a weird 1st world phenomenon where some people are so excited about nature that they want to possess a system for their area. /it's coming here/. For a while, the term "wonderful forecaster" was out of vogue on the site so I went with state-caster. Hahaha. I always tried to make it a point to try to be open minded about what might happen.

Roger that, Steve -- I definitely get that. You obviously know that one of the hardest things to do is to decide when the "open mind" has to start closing. Much worse, though, is not opening it in the first place.

Jeez. I'm starting to sound like a third-rate, late-night,infomercial philosopher. "What would YOU give for all the secrets of the universe? Well, don't answer yet, because you'll also get this eight-piece cutlery set!"...

[AxaltaRacing24]

The problem I have with the GFS (Its late so I dont know which GFS...the one in the link) is that it shows a recurve, thats very different from a straight on hit. Thats a BIG difference between what the models think the ridge will look like. If the GFS doesnt have any other model support I would tend to not believe it

This is why the next Euro is important. If it goes with the UK, the GFS would have nobody.

But here’s the thing, the GFS could be right, it would be a big win for it if Dorian goes more north like Jacksonville or the rest could be right and landfall could be between Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral

Oh for sure, but if the Euro takes the Uk bait and not the GFS bait, that would be hard to ignore. Same could be said if it trends toward the GFS. What I am trying to say is that this next Euro run will really set the tone on the trend (for now).