ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

The core is so tiny, I have a real feeling this is going to expand a lot

[Highteeld]

992 w/ 11 knots ~ 991 mb. pressure is trying to fall again

[ScottNAtlanta]

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 2°C (36°F)

Still a bit on the dry side

[Hurricaneman]

Did this just about stall or is it an artifact

[Stormi]

I went to the grocery store tonight to get some nonperishables and bottled water. Managed to get the last two cases of water. Most of the bread was already gone as well. Got gas in both cars too as a precaution. Folks here are taking this very seriously.

Where is here?

We are considered Northcentral FL very close to Lines for Putnam & Flagler. Our little gas station had solid lines from 2PM on, Dollar General was out of bread & way low in water by 4PM, & that same CircleK was *OUT* of all gas except Supreme before 10PM. I paid $3.24 per gallon...kid you not.

[Stormi]

I went to the grocery store tonight to get some nonperishables and bottled water. Managed to get the last two cases of water. Most of the bread was already gone as well. Got gas in both cars too as a precaution. Folks here are taking this very seriously.

Where is here?

We are considered Northcentral FL very close to Lines for Putnam & Flagler. Our little gas station had solid lines from 2PM on, Dollar General was out of bread & way low in water by 4PM, & that same CircleK was *OUT* of all gas except Supreme before 10PM. I paid $3.24 per gallon...kid you not.

In no way trying to steal anyone else's reply - just wanted to add input from what many are probably already dealing with out here.

[Sanibel]

The 1947 Ft Lauderdale hurricane exited in to the Gulf over Sanibel...A 120mph gust was recorded at the lighthouse...

[CronkPSU]

geeez...if the Euro and the others except GFS begins verifying, the evacuations will be the largest in US history, gotta think WPB all the way up to at least Cocoa and maybe further north and south since it dives wsw towards the metro South Florida area and then goes back up the coast

[lando]

With almost all the major models targeting the PBC area, except for GFS, I think the NHC will slightly shift their track south, but not all the way down to PBC. I think somewhere similar to where Frances/ Jeanne came ashore is where they will plot the next forecast. They can't fully discredit the GFS, but the trend has certainly been clear so far the last few cycle runs.

[Hurrilurker]

Wow it really looks pretty bad compared to earlier today. Of course that can change but is that dry air from the south chasing Dorian or will it shake it off and enter a moister environment?

[STRiZZY]

Starting to improve in structure it seems, southern portion of the storm looking healthier by the frame.

[KWT]

I think the fact the inflow is now streaming over PR probably has not helped Dorian over the last 12hrs, its why I suspected it was going to stop its intensification last night for a whilst until it clears decently north.

The structure is in place still though, just not as good as it was yesterday. Still has all the ground work done for a strong strengthening phase at the weekend.

[Hurrilurker]

Yes, it’s showing signs of getting it back together in the last hour or so. Looks like the outflow is expanding in the northern hemisphere. Once it clears the influence of PR and ejects the dry air I won’t be surprised to see it pop a visible eye sometime tomorrow.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 0, 200N, 664W, 75, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 40, 20, 60, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 0, 200N, 664W, 75, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 0, 200N, 664W, 75, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 12, 219N, 676W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 12, 219N, 676W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 12, 219N, 676W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 24, 237N, 690W, 95, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 40, 30, 40, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 24, 237N, 690W, 95, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 24, 237N, 690W, 95, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 36, 251N, 706W, 100, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 30, 40, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 36, 251N, 706W, 100, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 36, 251N, 706W, 100, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 10, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 48, 260N, 725W, 105, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 40, 50, 0, 0, 0, 130, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 48, 260N, 725W, 105, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 130, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 48, 260N, 725W, 105, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 10, 0, 0, 0, 130, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 72, 270N, 764W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 70, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 135, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 72, 270N, 764W, 110, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 135, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 96, 275N, 795W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 135, 0,
AL, 05, 2019082906, 03, OFCL, 120, 280N, 815W, 75, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0,

Could be a CAT.4 hurricane.

[GCANE]

Right on schedule.
As I said last night, feeder band is crossing PR which is disrupting intensification of Dorian.
This is the umbilical cord that has been feeding Dorian high-CAPE and high-TPW air since the mid MDR.
Today will likely be a consolidation / slight-flucuation day.
I'll be checking models to see when the feed will clear PR and if another connection may be made in the Bahamas.
This feature will arguably be key to monitor on approach to FL along with land interaction parameters.
In fact, it usually always is.
Stay tuned.

[STRiZZY]

Right on schedule.
As I said last night, feeder band is crossing PR which is disrupting intensification of Dorian.
This is the umbilical cord that has been feeding Dorian high-CAPE and high-TPW air since the mid MDR.
Today will likely be a consolidation / slight-flucuation day.
I'll be checking models to see when the feed will clear PR and if another connection may be made in the Bahamas.
This feature will arguably be key to monitor on approach to FL along with land interaction parameters.
In fact, it usually always is.
Stay tuned.

https://i.imgur.com/hwgqo6l.gif

https://i.imgur.com/hrTHteB.png

https://i.imgur.com/SCYUMiE.png

Great post

[STRiZZY]

Is that an eye popping out?

[Bocadude85]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis-swir_05L_201908290822.jpg?2002936

Is that an eye popping out?

Yes, it’s showing up on IR also

[STRiZZY]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_vis-swir_05L_201908290822.jpg?2002936

Is that an eye popping out?

Yes, it’s showing up on IR also

Yep, you're right, there she is.

Strengthening?

[GCANE]

Dorian is also starting to feel the effects of a PV Streamer (ULL / Trough) to the west.
This is what Levi has been talking about for the last few days.