ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Can not believe I am still up, Lol what time does thr Euro run I need to work this morning .

[AxaltaRacing24]

Can not believe I am still up, Lol what time does thr Euro run I need to work this morning .

1:45 est lol

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Dude dont u ever sleep Lol,

Guess I will see the run in the morning. Thanks again for all the info.

[Stormi]

Oh well, just got home from work so I may as well

[ROCK]

The trend has been south and more south as the robust high drops down and pushes him west. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes thru the straits and into STX at this point. Saw this with IKE and Rita. Euro sniffing lower FL and into the GOM for now. Won’t be surprised if LA and Central LA come into play in the next few runs. JMO

[Jonny]

Guess I will see the run in the morning.

Might as well just wait another 20 minutes. lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

Can not believe I am still up, Lol what time does thr Euro run I need to work this morning .

15 more minutes...you made it this far...whats 15 more minutes

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Wow look who shows up,

Been a long time Rock how goes it

[Craters]

The trend has been south and more south as the robust high drops down and pushes him west. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes thru the straits and into STX at this point. Saw this with IKE and Rita. Euro sniffing lower FL and into the GOM for now. Won’t be surprised if LA and Central LA come into play in the next few runs. JMO

Rock -- you live!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON landfall a smidge South of 18z and stronger.

[STRiZZY]

Can not believe I am still up, Lol what time does thr Euro run I need to work this morning .

15 more minutes...you made it this far...whats 15 more minutes

You're so close! Don't give up!

[ScottNAtlanta]

That ridge looks pretty stout coming across the US

[sponger]

Hooked on Euro. There is zero chance I am sleeping before 2:45.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hooked on Euro. There is zero chance I am sleeping before 2:45.

There is a 98.5% chance I WILL be sleeping by 2:45 (since it is 1:31 now)

[BobHarlem]

0z HMON stronger (higher end cat 2) and south (moved from Palm Bay at 18z south to Vero at 0z)

[ROCK]

Wow look who shows up,

Been a long time Rock how goes it

Been watching in the shadows lol... I am thinking Miami dade then over into LA right now..every Euro run is critical now. Euro usually sniffs out and wild swings 4-5 days out then narrows down. We shall see how far west or south it goes tonight but you new guys can stay up for that...)

[scogor]

Might be 1:30 for many of you but now 7:30 a.m. for me as we are river cruising in Europe and 6 hours ahead of our home base on Florida’s west coast. Very bizarre model watching from the other side of the Atlantic.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF a smidge South as well and coming in weaker at 944mb versus the 18z that had 918.

[sma10]

This is why the next Euro is important. If it goes with the UK, the GFS would have nobody.

But here’s the thing, the GFS could be right, it would be a big win for it if Dorian goes more north like Jacksonville or the rest could be right and landfall could be between Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral

Oh for sure, but if the Euro takes the Uk bait and not the GFS bait, that would be hard to ignore. Same could be said if it trends toward the GFS. What I am trying to say is that this next Euro run will really set the tone on the trend (for now).

Of course the GFS could turn out to be "more correct" because when it comes to tropics ... who knows?

But for me, the curious thing is ... why would several completely different models (euro, uk, icon, cmc) ALL depict variants of the same non traditional track (due west, then a bit wsw dip) ... and all of them turn out to be wrong? That just sounds bizarre to me if that happened lol

[Jonny]

10 minutes until showtime!