Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SUBSIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 62.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Saba and St.
Eustatius.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), data from the Guadeloupe radar indicate
that the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude
15.3 North, longitude 62.5 West. Dorian is moving toward the
west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move
across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, pass over
or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday, and move near
or just east of eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. On Thursday
night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or
to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches
Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian
moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night.
Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday
while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and
southeastern Bahamas.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:
Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches.
Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.
Virgin Islands and Haiti...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches.
Bahamas...2 to 4 inches.
Florida...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions
of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands on
Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the
Lesser Antilles by this evening. Swells are expected to increase
along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday
and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR SABA AND ST.
EUSTATIUS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SAMANA TO PUERTO PLATA
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 62.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 62.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 62.0W
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.2N 64.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.6N 66.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.1N 67.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N 69.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N 72.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 26.7N 76.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 28.2N 80.6W...NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 62.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019
Dorian's convective pattern has continued to fluctuate this
afternoon due to some interaction with the Windward and Leeward
Islands, but mainly due to intrusions of very dry mid-level air. A
10-mile wide eye feature developed in Martinique and Guadeloupe
radar data between 1500-1600 UTC and again between 1700-1800 UTC.
But this feature had been short-lived due to erosion of the
inner-core convection caused by dry air entrainment, although a
recent burst of deep convection has developed near and over the
low-level center. Dorian's upper-level outflow has continued to
expand and is very symmetrical. The initial intensity has been
maintained at 45 kt based on earlier aircraft flight-level and SFMR
surface wind data.
Despite the center redeveloping farther north, radar and recon
fixes indicate that the motion remains west-northwestward or
300/11 kt. Due to the more northward initial position, the new
forecast track was shifted 30-60 n mi northeast of the previous
one track through 96 hours. The global models are in good agreement
on Dorian moving west-northwestward tonight and then turning
northwestward on Wednesday, bringing the cyclone's center near
or over the central or western portions of Puerto Rico. After
clearing the island by early Thursday, Dorian is forecast to move
cyclonically around the eastern portion of a southwestward-moving
mid/upper-level low on days 3-5. The evolution of the upper-low and
how strong the mid-level ridge to the north builds in behind the low
and across the southeastern U.S. will determine when and how sharp
Dorian's turn back the west-northwest will occur. The new NHC track
is close to a blend consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, and
brings Dorian near the east-central Florida coast in 120 hours.
Users are reminded not to focus on the details of the extended track
forecast as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.
Dry air should continue to plague Dorian for the next 24 hours or
so, resulting in only slow strengthening. Land interaction with
Puerto Rico should significantly weaken the small cyclone, thus the
intensities were lowered at 36 and 48 hours. On days 3-5, the models
continue to indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear
conditions should favor strengthening, especially since Dorian will
be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and into a moist mid-level
environment. The dynamical models such as the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF
are now showing more strengthening than previous runs, but still
remain well below the statistical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models,
which bring Dorian to category 1 or 2 strength by day 5. The
official intensity forecast remains a compromise between the these
two extremes, and is close to the HCCA and FSSE consensus models.
Given the large spread in the guidance, there remains lower-than-
normal confidence in the intensity forecast, especially on days 4
and 5.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican
Republic Wednesday night and Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in Puerto Rico and portions of the Dominican Republic.
2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic could produce flash flooding during the next few days.
Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas and
Florida later this week and into early next week.
3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the Bahamas and along portions of the Florida east
coast have increased. Residents in these areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in
place.
4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due to the potential for Dorian's interaction with
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to weaken the storm.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/2100Z 15.3N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 16.2N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 17.6N 66.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 19.1N 67.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 20.8N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 24.2N 72.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 26.7N 76.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 28.2N 80.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST
$$
Forecaster Stewart