ATL: DORIAN - Models

[ScottNAtlanta]

If it makes it to the GOM after that second landfall steering will collapse and Dorian will be hangin out for a while.

[STRiZZY]

Is it just me or did the ECMWF 00Z initialize weak? Only have access to TT.

[eastcoastFL]

These slower model runs seem to be in play with the forecasts now. My local forecast 3 hours ago had TS conditions sat night and hurricane conditions Sunday and then gone on Monday with just some wind. Now it’s keeping us in hurricane conditions thru Monday


Saturday NightTropical storm conditions possible. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
SundayHurricane conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday NightHurricane conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 76. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Labor DayHurricane conditions possible. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[SouthFLTropics]

Vero, Sebastian, Palm Bay on the 105hr HWRF...Cat 4.

[STRiZZY]

HWRF 108HR

[BobHarlem]

HWRF Shifted south from Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet. Cat 4 here.

[STRiZZY]

ECMWF 24H

[eastcoastFL]

It’s freaky that ICON and CMC are almost identical.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It’s freaky that ICON and CMC are almost identical.

UK is pretty close too.

[Bocadude85]

The HWRF seems to be south

Yes and moving almost due west, 18z was wnw into the cape.

And the south trend continues..all models so far with exception of GFS picking up the strong ridge

0z HWRF moves less then 1 degrees north in latitude from 75W. Never makes it above 28N before landfall

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I know euro started running is it behind with results ?

[STRiZZY]

ECMWF 48HR

[eastcoastFL]

It’s freaky that ICON and CMC are almost identical.

UK is pretty close too.

I haven’t seen the UK. I just ran cmc and while waiting on the next euro frame. It can’t be a coincidence that they’re so close

[Highteeld]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019082900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_2.png

ECMWF 24H

hi res euro is 989 at hr 24

[Highteeld]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019082900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_2.png

ECMWF 24H

hi res euro is 989 at hr 24

[eastcoastFL]

I know euro started running is it behind with results ?

It’s only at 48 hours so far

[AxaltaRacing24]

It’s freaky that ICON and CMC are almost identical.

UK is pretty close too.

I haven’t seen the UK. I just ran cmc and while waiting on the next euro frame. It can’t be a coincidence that they’re so close

I'm trying to avoid the "c" word until we see the euro, but it is very interesting.

[stormhunter7]

is Euro a little right of 12z through 48hrs?

[Highteeld]

[eastcoastFL]

Stuck on 48 hours ....