STRiZZY wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019082900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_6.png
um...guys!
It seems we're seeing a differing of opinions. Let's see how the run plays out.
ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
It seems we're seeing a differing of opinions. Let's see how the run plays out.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Landfall in PBC. The Euro now joins the ICON, UK, and CMC.
Unreal. I’d expect a south shift in track come 5am
Has to be. When will the GFS cave?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Euro slightly south, Yep. GFS is by itself. Everything else tonight shifted ever so slightly south, with UKMet leading the way with the WSW dip (It could get even further south if the trend holds). 5AM probably will reflect this (although only slightly) S. Florida to Central Florida, and another landfall in the Gulf somewhere beyond seems like the most likely outcome after tonight.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
I think it is more likely to hit Miami than to follow the gfs operational thinking. This ridge is looking really powerful and even its own ensembles are 1-3 degrees further to the south at landfall.
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:STRiZZY wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019082900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_6.png
um...guys!
Bad.....just bad
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Bad does not even begin to describe it. We need to stop hoping and start making (or completing) plans for a worst case scenario at this point. No other way around it.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
A stall, very similar to CMC and Icon. Of course 120hr out so .... not likely to verify in EXACTLY the way it's depicted, but the general idea should be noted
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Well going to bed now... got clothes to pack and shutters to hang tomorrow. Good night folks
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Well that was a little unsettling but then again I can't say I am surprised. Everyone be safe will check in tomorrow, oh wqit later today
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Landfall in PBC. The Euro now joins the ICON, UK, and CMC.
Unreal. I’d expect a south shift in track come 5am
They no longer have a choice.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Bocadude85 wrote:0z Euro similar track to the 1947 Ft. Lauderdale hurricane
Yes. let's see if it continues SW that would be devastating across the entire tri-county area. That is a nightmare run.
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:WeatherEmperor wrote:STRiZZY wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019082900/ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_6.png
um...guys!
Bad.....just bad
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Bad does not even begin to describe it. We need to stop hoping and start making (or completing) plans for a worst case scenario at this point. No other way around it.
I could not agree more with you my friend. I am in full prep mode tomorrow. Not gonna wait anymore
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
catastrophic
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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AtlanticWind
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Landfall in PBC. The Euro now joins the ICON, UK, and CMC.
Unreal. I’d expect a south shift in track come 5am
They no longer have a choice.
I agree they’ve had no major consensus on landfall until now. It’ll play
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stormhunter7
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
the nw turn is there. better sign for panhandle!
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ATL: DORIAN - Models
Euro staying...Interesting...
Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
I could be wrong but wasn't the Euro a bit south with Florence at 96-120 hours as well?
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
It starts riding the middle of the state. Couldn’t get much worse...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Wow! Devastating for West Palm.
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