ATL: DORIAN - Models

[USTropics]

Hurricane force wind gusts forecast up the entire state of Florida on the ECMWF 00z run:

[HDGator]

So what do we think now that the 00Z euro is out? Track is no longer any further southward bound than it has been. Moves to West Palm but then stalls dead out and starts to go north over the peninsula. Never gets into the GOM. After stalling over Fl starts moving up the coast to the Carolinas. It's actually now more of a northward bound coast hugger than the GFS. Both models agree on a stall of some kind with no move into the GOM. It reminds me a little of Matthew as far as a really hard forecast for FL. The bottom line is the euro and GFS are coming into more agreement which makes far southern FL a little less likely. Thats good for getting a better forecast but it still leaves a lot of questions.

I don't see how you can say they're coming into more agreement when the Euro moved South in landfall and the GFS moved North. They are now 300+ miles apart at 5 days. That's not good for getting better forecasts.
They may sense a weakness in the ridge at 5 days+ but their operational understanding of it is worlds apart.

The people that will be affected by the two different tracks are multiples of Millions of people that are distinct and different. That's not a better forecast.

[STRiZZY]

So what do we think now that the 00Z euro is out? Track is no longer any further southward bound than it has been. Moves to West Palm but then stalls dead out and starts to go north over the peninsula. Never gets into the GOM. After stalling over Fl starts moving up the coast to the Carolinas. It's actually now more of a northward bound coast hugger than the GFS. Both models agree on a stall of some kind with no move into the GOM. It reminds me a little of Matthew as far as a really hard forecast for FL. The bottom line is the euro and GFS are coming into more agreement which makes far southern FL a little less likely. Thats good for getting a better forecast but it still leaves a lot of questions.

Not so sure if they are in "agreement" just yet, that's the first run with the Euro not depicting an entry into the GOM. This run was slower, therefore the turn north happened more to the east. Still lots of time to hammer out the details. The Euro, Eukie, CMC and Icon seem to be in rather good agreement in terms of track, intensity and timing to a certain degree. The GFS is on it's own virtually with a Northern Florida/Georgia line landfall. Not saying the GFS is wrong, could steal a huge victory for it's reputation.

[Blizzard96x]

Just my opinion, but I think this was a massive shift from most of the main models towards the GFS. Gulf storm seems less likely and the turn north much quicker. Thinking this is a Melbourne to Jacksonville threat right now for a Cat 3 storm. With all the talk of a southern FL storm past 24 hrs I hope those north of the lake taking this serious as well...

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1166960616755662853

[AtlanticWind]

The 12z Euro got Dorian solidly into the Gulf, I didn't think the storm had much of a chance of missing Florida
The 00z run turning up the center of Florida was not good but now I see some chance it could turn before
reaching the state . Hard to quantify what the chances are .

I live in Ft. Lauderdale ,my best friend in Boynton beach , and my brother law in Deltona.

[STRiZZY]

Just my opinion, but I think this was a massive shift from most of the main models towards the GFS. Gulf storm seems less likely and the turn north much quicker. Thinking this is a Melbourne to Jacksonville threat right now for a Cat 3 storm. With all the talk of a southern FL storm past 24 hrs I hope those north of the lake taking this serious as well...

The storm doesn't turn north quicker, it moves slower therefore the turn happened further east.

The Euro has depicted the northern turn to happen around WED run after run after run... It's still showing that but THIS time the storm is moving slower.

So instead of it making it into the GOM and turning north on WED it's in the middle of the state when it makes the turn this time.

So it's NOT making the turn quicker it's moving slower thus turning north over the state of Florida and not the GOM.


To say the main models have made a massive shift towards the GFS is nonsense (no offense).. They're predicting landfalls 300mi away from each other.

[LarryWx]

Just like the 0Z Euro, the 0Z EPS remains a significant threat to the southern half of FL but many more members then turn up/near the peninsula or never even make it to FL vs the 12Z. Many fewer into the Gulf. Significantly higher threat even up into Carolinas vs 12Z run indicated. This more northward/less westward trend seems to be what 0Z consensus is saying.

[STRiZZY]

 https://twitter.com/WCTVMike/status/1166976425045479424

[KWT]

GFS has shifted northwards (the track it does have looks more historically likely, even if the landfall location rarely gets hurricanes) however it is still very much the odd one out and it does have a northward bias when under a ridging set-up.

[Blizzard96x]

Just my opinion, but I think this was a massive shift from most of the main models towards the GFS. Gulf storm seems less likely and the turn north much quicker. Thinking this is a Melbourne to Jacksonville threat right now for a Cat 3 storm. With all the talk of a southern FL storm past 24 hrs I hope those north of the lake taking this serious as well...

The storm doesn't turn north quicker, it moves slower therefore the turn happened further east.

The Euro has depicted the northern turn to happen around WED run after run after run... It's still showing that but THIS time the storm is moving slower.

So instead of it making it into the GOM and turning north on WED it's in the middle of the state when it makes the turn this time.

So it's NOT making the turn quicker it's moving slower thus turning north over the state of Florida and not the GOM.


To say the main models have made a massive shift towards the GFS is nonsense (no offense).. They're predicting landfalls 300mi away from each other.

After reading your statement and looking at it more, you are 100% right.. slower movement causes north turn to happen further east. My bad for the misinterpretation... hoping for the best for all regardless for my great state of Florida

[STRiZZY]

Just my opinion, but I think this was a massive shift from most of the main models towards the GFS. Gulf storm seems less likely and the turn north much quicker. Thinking this is a Melbourne to Jacksonville threat right now for a Cat 3 storm. With all the talk of a southern FL storm past 24 hrs I hope those north of the lake taking this serious as well...

The storm doesn't turn north quicker, it moves slower therefore the turn happened further east.

The Euro has depicted the northern turn to happen around WED run after run after run... It's still showing that but THIS time the storm is moving slower.

So instead of it making it into the GOM and turning north on WED it's in the middle of the state when it makes the turn this time.

So it's NOT making the turn quicker it's moving slower thus turning north over the state of Florida and not the GOM.


To say the main models have made a massive shift towards the GFS is nonsense (no offense).. They're predicting landfalls 300mi away from each other.

After reading your statement and looking at it more, you are 100% right.. slower movement causes north turn to happen further east. My bad for the misinterpretation... hoping for the best for all regardless for my great state of Florida

Same, I wish everyone well in the great state of Florida.

Timing is going to be so crucial. Hopefully we get the speed of Dorian's movement down soon.

+/- 10mph will have huge ramifications for when the storm makes the turn North.


edit: Heck +/- 5mph would be huge. Over 100mi's difference theoretically over a 24hr period.

[USTropics]

ECMWF 12z and 00z ensemble trend:



Zoomed in trend:


Essentially, track remains low confidence.

[Blown Away]

Euro shows landfall near WPB and nearly stalls, that would be @24 hours of hurricane force winds for that area... Ugh

[stormlover2013]

I think we have a pretty good short term forecast, long term still no clue, lot of rides on the models getting a hang of this upper level pattern.

[tgenius]

Down in Miami the trend on the 00z guidance is north compared to how the 12z had some models that were more likely to be coming as far south. Not set in stone at all, but seems to be trending northward some.

[Blown Away]

The 00z Euro is a very traditional track for SFL from the SE, many westward moving storms impacting SFL make turns up through the peninsula.

[KWT]

00z has far more stronger runs escaping this time round and OTS (or maybe clipping the Carolinas, not a majority but that is a vast difference compared to the 12z runs thats for sure.

[Blown Away]

Decent South shifts at FL landfall on the 00z HWRF & CMC.

[fci]

This still 5 days out , our best hope in Florida if the model trends have the north turn earlier (sorry Bahamas not
wishing this on you)

Exactly, yes the euro has a direct hit in my area but if the trend on the turn continues it never makes landfall in south florida

OK, so the point is the turn to the North coming early and if THAT trend continued it could come to a screeching halt offshore and shoot North.