ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Bocadude85]

Take it for what it is but the 6z NAM is coming is a decent clip southeast of its last few runs, could be a indication the 6z GFS will come in a bit farther south

[STRiZZY]

This still 5 days out , our best hope in Florida if the model trends have the north turn earlier (sorry Bahamas not
wishing this on you)

Exactly, yes the euro has a direct hit in my area but if the trend on the turn continues it never makes landfall in south florida

OK, so the point is the turn to the North coming early and if THAT trend continued it could come to a screeching halt offshore and shoot North.

The only thing is the turn didn't come early.

The Euro was much slower this time with Dorian's movement. The turn still looks to happen at the same time (around Wednesday).

But with a slower movement, Dorian was only over the peninsula come Wednesday, hence the north turn up the spine this time and not in the GOM.

[Bocadude85]

6z NAM is complete and it shows Dorian taking a wsw dip in the NW Bahamas....

[fci]

Exactly, yes the euro has a direct hit in my area but if the trend on the turn continues it never makes landfall in south florida

OK, so the point is the turn to the North coming early and if THAT trend continued it could come to a screeching halt offshore and shoot North.

The only thing is the turn didn't come early.

The Euro was much slower this time with Dorian's movement. The turn still looks to happen at the same time (around Wednesday).

But with a slower movement, Dorian was only over the peninsula come Wednesday, hence the north turn up the spine this time and not in the GOM.

I wasn't really clear. What I meant was the turn comes "earlier" in the model run in that it occurs over the spine of the state as opposed to in the GOM.
So, I meant that if the trend continues for the turn to come earlier; it could come before the storm strikes the coast.
Hope that made more sense!

[AtlanticWind]

I think what we would all like is Dorian to turn before. it hits the US
Don't know if that's possible

[STRiZZY]

OK, so the point is the turn to the North coming early and if THAT trend continued it could come to a screeching halt offshore and shoot North.

The only thing is the turn didn't come early.

The Euro was much slower this time with Dorian's movement. The turn still looks to happen at the same time (around Wednesday).

But with a slower movement, Dorian was only over the peninsula come Wednesday, hence the north turn up the spine this time and not in the GOM.

I wasn't really clear. What I meant was the turn comes "earlier" in the model run in that it occurs over the spine of the state as opposed to in the GOM.
So, I meant that if the trend continues for the turn to come earlier; it could come before the storm strikes the coast.
Hope that made more sense!

Right, I thought what you might have meant by "turn to the north coming early" (once again not in the model run as far as time is concerned) but earlier meaning moving from east to west it happened more easterly. Then yes that's true. Although the ridge isn't breaking down earlier or anything in that run, Dorian is just taking his sweet time getting to Florida with the 00z.

[Blown Away]

Funny ,ends up near where GFS has it . A big difference on how it gets there

Yes, the euro is trending towards the gfs, there is a break in the ridge, for south floridians this trend is good IF it continues

I think that’s a big wish, 00z Euro basically delays the landfall by 24 hours and makes turn after landfall around Lake O and goes due N for @30hrs... I think the models are consolidating a landfall from FTL to Vero, IMHO...

GFS gonna cave soon to the Euro...

[STRiZZY]

NHC track shifts south.

Correct me if I'm wrong but it also shows Dorian to be about 6 hours slower on arrival.

[USTropics]

ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ensembles, the means are pretty similar, but the individual members still show a wide range of possible solutions:

[STRiZZY]

Per the NHC 5am update.

"The models, and their ensembles,
continue to diverge after 48 hours and have not really budged from
their respective solutions compared to yesterday. The GFS
is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a
weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia
border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges
and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida."

As I was saying, there's no way the Euro trended toward the GFS tonight.

[SouthFLTropics]

Wash, Rinse, Repeat...as we now wait for the cycle to start all over again with the 06z GFS.

[SouthFLTropics]

Of note...06z ICON is running and appears to be much slower than the 00z. Will be interesting to see if the turn North happens prior to the peninsula.

[jlauderdal]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/084434_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

NHC track shifts south.

Correct me if I'm wrong but it also shows Dorian to be about 6 hours slower on arrival.

its slower, lets see if the euro continues to show the turn over florida vs taking it out to the gulf

[jlauderdal]

Funny ,ends up near where GFS has it . A big difference on how it gets there

Yes, the euro is trending towards the gfs, there is a break in the ridge, for south floridians this trend is good IF it continues

I think that’s a big wish, 00z Euro basically delays the landfall by 24 hours and makes turn after landfall around Lake O and goes due N for @30hrs... I think the models are consolidating a landfall from FTL to Vero, IMHO...

GFS gonna cave soon to the Euro...

dont wish the hurricane on anyone but if we can get that turn trend to continue its better for both of us and ultimately get a turn off the coast and miss land all together which really would be a huge bust for all of the models even at 5 days

[jlauderdal]

Of note...06z ICON is running and appears to be much slower than the 00z. Will be interesting to see if the turn North happens prior to the peninsula.

ICON with strong ridging in place at 60h..the 1030 high is locked in

[STRiZZY]

Of note...06z ICON is running and appears to be much slower than the 00z. Will be interesting to see if the turn North happens prior to the peninsula.

Off by one degree through 90Hrs

[jlauderdal]

icon at 72 , 1030 high barely moved, dorian heading wsw

[SFLcane]

Well NHC is calling the GFS an outlier this morning showing a weaker ridge they must think that ridge will be quite strong as the euro has been showing. This is getting serious SFL go out and get prepared. Last night Walmart/Publix had been ram sacked with no water or bread left. Fuel will be next.

[STRiZZY]

icon at 102HR

[jlauderdal]

icon crawling toward south florida at 102 hours, a high has appeared on the scene in the SE US and we also have a 1007 low in the gulf, very crowded playing field on the ICON