ATL: DORIAN - Models

[chris_fit]

When Cyclones slow/stall, usually an indication of weaker steering, which models don't handle that well - as well as change in direction - Hopefully to the N in this case.

[USTropics]

Anyone have the 06 Ukmet? Does it even run then?

The only publicly accessible site I've seen is here: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ncep (won't be available for another 1-2 hours).

[Aric Dunn]

If ryan does not post to his twitter message me in the storm2k discord chat and ill send to you

[ronjon]

I have a feeling gfs corrects it self at 12z or tonight or euro does

06z GFS already corrected itself from the 00z run with a shift south to the cape - I'd expect a more southern approach on the 12z toward maybe Melbourne - perhaps Euro will go to Vero Beach - and then we'd have pretty good consensus 4 days out.

[AutoPenalti]

Aric, did the 06z stop loading? Mine went down.

[SFLcane]

Updates on the 06z EURO?

[canetracker]

Do we have access to the 6z euro?

You can get it at http://weather.us and http://weathermodels.com, both require a subscription to access it.

Which subscription do you need for weather.us. Is it available with package 1 or package 2?

[ronjon]

Updates on the 06z EURO?

Remember it only goes out to 90 hrs on the 06z and 18z runs.

[USTropics]

Do we have access to the 6z euro?

You can get it at http://weather.us and http://weathermodels.com, both require a subscription to access it.

Which subscription do you need for weather.us. Is it available with package 1 or package 2?

I believe it's the 2nd tier, try this link:
https://weather.us/model-charts/rapid-euro

As ronjon just stated, it only goes out to 90 hours. 06z/18z UKMET operational goes out to 60 hours, but ensembles are run to 168 hours (https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.p ... 2019082818)

[Pearl River]

Looks like the 06z euro took a decent wsw jog from what I can tell.

[cajungal]

Have been feeling much better here in SE Louisiana after the latest runs.

[Stormcenter]

Long way to go on this one so no feeling good just yet.

Have been feeling much better here in SE Louisiana after the latest runs.

[Kohlecane]

So I'm thinking a WSW shift near Bahamas but like Aric said the 'Wobble' or stall might be enough for the ridge to break down, IMO the 06z GFS shows the ridge break down before landfall so I'm thinking the 12z runs will give us more input all depends on that speed, could have a turn N riding the E coast, I'm not ruling out the case of a GOM storm but man these models have been crazy, long time waiting for a decent storm to track on to, so maybe models are trying to get it together after a slow season.

[ronjon]

The tropical models like HWRF and HMON are about 12 hours faster to landfall than the globals - that's why they both take Dorian to the west coast - so in addition to track forecast there seems to be some disagreement on forward speed over the next 4 days.

[Aric Dunn]

6z euro.

[SFLcane]

6z euro.

https://i.ibb.co/M5Dt3bf/ecmwf-dorian05l-atlantic-90.png

Wow!

[tolakram]

The euro keeps sending it more south so even if the ridge breaks down it's going to be difficult to escape a landfall. What a nailbiter.

[StormingB81]

The euro keeps sending it more south so even if the ridge breaks down it's going to be difficult to escape a landfall. What a nailbiter.

I hope it doesn't ride the whole coast...evacuations would be even messier and could mean more winds all up the coast!

[chris_fit]

6z euro.

https://i.ibb.co/M5Dt3bf/ecmwf-dorian05l-atlantic-90.png

[SEASON_CANCELED]

The euro keeps sending it more south so even if the ridge breaks down it's going to be difficult to escape a landfall. What a nailbiter.

I hope it doesn't ride the whole coast...evacuations would be even messier and could mean more winds all up the coast!

Whoa That is a possibly scary setup for the west coast of florida