ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

241
URNT12 KWBC 291342
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052019
A. 29/13:02:57Z
B. 21.12 deg N 066.99 deg W
C. 700 MB 3005 m
D. 987 mb
E. 105 deg 09 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C5
H. 51 kt
I. 209 deg 3 nm 13:02:16Z
J. 271 deg 55 kt
K. 211 deg 16 nm 12:59:24Z
L. 77 kt
M. 040 deg 38 nm 13:12:10Z
N. 129 deg 64 kt
O. 019 deg 8 nm 13:05:00Z
P. 11 C / 3045 m
Q. 15 C / 3026 m
R. 6 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1305A DORIAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 64 KT 019 / 8 NM 13:05:00Z

[Weatherboy1]

Dorian has good structure, once it works through core changes and matures will easily be Cat 4, in my opinion.

Folks in Florida should already be ready to leave if warranted.

This is definitely my biggest concern with Dorian. The risk of "upside" to the intensity forecast looks much greater than the likelihood of a pleasant "downside" break in strength

[jfk08c]

Could anyone provide me the link of the site that shows a loop of the NHC cone progression? Can't seem to find it

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line_and_wind

Much appreciated!

[SconnieCane]

The ULL is almost parallel with Dorian now, which is causing some short term WNW motion. Should be a general NW trajectory until he fully pivots around the ULL:
https://i.imgur.com/fnW7aQY.png

Easier to see with WV imagery loop:
https://i.ibb.co/xFvdj3M/goes16-wv-mid-watl.gif

This visible image really puts into perspective how tiny Dorian is compared to a storm like, say, Irma in the same general vicinity. Very much on an Andrew-like scale at least in terms of size at the moment. That's also the clearest eye I've seen from Dorian yet.

[StormingB81]

Living just off the coast (Well 9 miles from it) my biggest fear is it is almost at a stall and its a cat 4 and comes ashore and is at a crawl at best. Right now the plan is to stay put and ride it out. I live JUST south of Cocoa Beach.

[GCANE]

Rain rate over 50 mm/hr.
Indicative of maintaining intensity or possible strengthening.

[wx98]

Shear from that ULL and surrounding dry air seem to be holding it in check for now. It’s certainly not weakening, but I don’t think we will see much in the way of RI today.

[GCANE]

Eye is 5nm diameter
PINHOLE

[StPeteMike]

Shear from that ULL and surrounding dry air seem to be holding it in check for now. It’s certainly not weakening, but I don’t think we will see much in the way of RI today.

Much of the strengthening will start occurring tomorrow into the weekend. I think many of the models had the ULL further west at this point and might be a reason for the slower speed.

[GCANE]

This is going to scare the crap out of a lot of people when it explodes.
I estimate 24 to 36 hours.

[GCANE]

2nd pass 986.0mb

[ScottNAtlanta]

Eye is 5nm diameter
PINHOLE

Microwave is starting to show evidence of a second eyewall. I think an EWRC is underway. It cant keep a 5m eye for very long

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=05L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

[p1nheadlarry]

It looks like a mini Isabel (when Isabel was nearing landfall that is)

[GCANE]

Given the amount of time over water, I estimate 2 EWRCs.
As we all know, TCs get bigger after each one and more intense.
Some notable RIs from pinhole canes are:

Hurricane Wilma - 2005 (175 MPH / 882 MB) - Caribbean - 1.5 NM wide.
Hurricane Beta - 2005 (115 MPH) - Nicaragua - 5 NM wide.
Hurricane Dennis - 2005 (120 MPH) - Florida - 4 NM wide.
Hurricane Charley - 2004 (150 MPH / 941 MB) - Florida - 2.5 NM wide.
Hurricane Andrew - 1992 (165 MPH / 921 MB) - Florida - 6 NM wide.
Typhoon Forrest - 1983 (165 MPH / 883 MB) - Phillipines - 4 NM wide.
Hurricane Opal - 1995 (150 MPH / 919 MB) - Florida - 5 NM wide.

[cjrciadt]

Given the amount of time over water, I estimate 2 EWRCs.
As we all know, TCs get bigger after each one and more intense.
Some notable RIs from pinhole canes are:

Hurricane Wilma - 2005 (175 MPH / 882 MB) - Caribbean - 1.5 NM wide.
Hurricane Beta - 2005 (115 MPH) - Nicaragua - 5 NM wide.
Hurricane Dennis - 2005 (120 MPH) - Florida - 4 NM wide.
Hurricane Charley - 2004 (150 MPH / 941 MB) - Florida - 2.5 NM wide.
Hurricane Andrew - 1992 (165 MPH / 921 MB) - Florida - 6 NM wide.
Typhoon Forrest - 1983 (165 MPH / 883 MB) - Phillipines - 4 NM wide.
Hurricane Opal - 1995 (150 MPH / 919 MB) - Florida - 5 NM wide.

I expect Dorian to look like Frances when approaching. Same size, eye width, slightly stronger though.

[TallyTracker]

You can see on the visible frames how the outflow is beginning to push southwest again. It looks like the shear is letting up. The dry air slot too is about gone. Dorian is looking healthier in each frame.

[Evil Jeremy]

I expect Dorian to look like Frances when approaching. Same size, eye width, slightly stronger though.

And, like Frances, this is looking to be a slow moving, massive rain dump.

On another note, looks like Stewart is on shift today.

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 0, 210N, 669W, 75, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 40, 20, 60, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, DPB, 335, 11, , , 12, NEQ, 60, 45, 15, 45,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 0, 210N, 669W, 75, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, DPB, 335, 11, , , 12, NEQ, 60, 45, 15, 45,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 0, 210N, 669W, 75, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, DPB, 335, 11, , , 12, NEQ, 60, 45, 15, 45,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 3, 215N, 672W, 75, 986, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 40, 20, 60, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, DPB, 330, 11, , , 12, NEQ, 60, 45, 15, 45,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 3, 215N, 672W, 75, 986, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, DPB, 330, 11, , , 12, NEQ, 60, 45, 15, 45,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 3, 215N, 672W, 75, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, DPB, 330, 11, , , 12, NEQ, 60, 45, 15, 45,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 12, 229N, 681W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 50, 30, 60, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0, , 0, DPB, 330, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 12, 229N, 681W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0, , 0, DPB, 330, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 12, 229N, 681W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0, , 0, DPB, 330, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 24, 245N, 696W, 100, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 60, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0, , 0, DPB, 320, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 24, 245N, 696W, 100, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0, , 0, DPB, 320, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 24, 245N, 696W, 100, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0, , 0, DPB, 320, 11,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 36, 256N, 714W, 105, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 60, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 130, 0, , 0, DPB, 305, 10,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 36, 256N, 714W, 105, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 130, 0, , 0, DPB, 305, 10,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 36, 256N, 714W, 105, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 10, 0, 0, 0, 130, 0, , 0, DPB, 305, 10,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 48, 263N, 734W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 60, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 135, 0, , 0, DPB, 290, 10,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 48, 263N, 734W, 110, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 135, 0, , 0, DPB, 290, 10,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 48, 263N, 734W, 110, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 10, 0, 0, 0, 135, 0, , 0, DPB, 290, 10,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 72, 270N, 769W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 80, 50, 80, 0, 0, 0, 140, 0, , 0, DPB, 280, 8,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 72, 270N, 769W, 115, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 30, 0, 0, 0, 140, 0, , 0, DPB, 280, 8,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 96, 275N, 798W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 140, 0, , 0, DPB, 280, 7,
AL, 05, 2019082912, 03, OFCL, 120, 281N, 815W, 65, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 80, 0, , 0, DPB, 290, 4,

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1167080463728566274

[GCANE]

Recon reports EWRC underway.

G. Inner Eye Diameter: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles)
G. Outer Eye Diameter: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)