ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2581 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:45 am


It's notably weaker, even with a lower resolution.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2582 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:46 am



Dont look at the NAM for track lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2583 Postby Jonny » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:47 am

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2584 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:50 am

Aric Dunn wrote:


Dont look at the NAM for track lol


Yes its why I started off with the LOL...I did notice like you it predicts a weaker shortwave at 72 hrs.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2585 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:55 am

Aric Dunn wrote:


Dont look at the NAM for track lol

Well that’s good to hear that it won’t be coming here! :lol:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2586 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:58 am

ICON is left a 24 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2587 Postby toad strangler » Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:59 am

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2588 Postby bqknight » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:00 am

Aric Dunn wrote:ICON is left a 24 hours


As an FYI - the NHC notes that the ICON model is an intensity model and not a model for track forecasting. It's a consensus model of the following models: DSHP, LGEM, HWFI, HMNI.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2589 Postby beachman80 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:02 am

Never saw the Euro ensembles so all over the place. You've got some curving out to sea, some going across the state, and then a few others that go through south Florida and turn it up the Florida West coast, ala Irma. Unreal.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2590 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:03 am

12z ICON is a good deal fast and left sooner than the 6z
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2591 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:04 am

bqknight wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:ICON is left a 24 hours


As an FYI - the NHC notes that the ICON model is an intensity model and not a model for track forecasting. It's a consensus model of the following models: DSHP, LGEM, HWFI, HMNI.



Yeppers.. its still a 1 up from the nogaps and cmc lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2592 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:13 am

This is interesting...

"It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected
consensus models remain south of the official forecast."
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2593 Postby hohnywx » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:14 am

bqknight wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:ICON is left a 24 hours


As an FYI - the NHC notes that the ICON model is an intensity model and not a model for track forecasting. It's a consensus model of the following models: DSHP, LGEM, HWFI, HMNI.


Can you please source this information? I do not see it anywhere.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2594 Postby bqknight » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:16 am

hohnywx wrote:
bqknight wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:ICON is left a 24 hours


As an FYI - the NHC notes that the ICON model is an intensity model and not a model for track forecasting. It's a consensus model of the following models: DSHP, LGEM, HWFI, HMNI.


Can you please source this information? I do not see it anywhere.


You can find info on the models here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2595 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:16 am

hohnywx wrote:
bqknight wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:ICON is left a 24 hours


As an FYI - the NHC notes that the ICON model is an intensity model and not a model for track forecasting. It's a consensus model of the following models: DSHP, LGEM, HWFI, HMNI.


Can you please source this information? I do not see it anywhere.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2596 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:20 am

Icon nearly identical as the 6z euro.. just a hair faster..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2597 Postby caneseddy » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:21 am

ICON at 90 hours bit of a dip SW..offshore Boca Raton/Delray Beach..not seeing the shortwave on this run either
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2598 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:23 am

Aric,

As you stated relating to the models being south of the NHC is there anything to take from this? Do you possibly see minor future adjustments south?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2599 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:24 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Icon nearly identical as the 6z euro.. just a hair faster..


Aric, note that the ICON positioning is much quicker than its 6Z version ... however, very much in line with its 00Z solution. Is it possible that we will end up finding all the slowdowns on the 6Z models to be a blip?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2600 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:24 am

Image
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