ATL: DORIAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4828
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2621 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:45 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
bqknight wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:ICON is left a 24 hours


As an FYI - the NHC notes that the ICON model is an intensity model and not a model for track forecasting. It's a consensus model of the following models: DSHP, LGEM, HWFI, HMNI.



Yeppers.. its still a 1 up from the nogaps and cmc lol


I don't think so. ICON is a global model developed in Germany and its their version of ECM and UKMET. From what I've read, it has a finer resolution than ECM and relies on different grid structure (icosahedral grid structure) basically triangular.

https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/01_num_weather_prediction_modells/icon_description.html
2 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20017
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2622 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:46 am

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
hohnywx
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 508
Age: 34
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 8:34 pm
Location: Hastings-on-Hudson, NY

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2623 Postby hohnywx » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:46 am

Siker wrote:
bqknight wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:ICON is left a 24 hours


As an FYI - the NHC notes that the ICON model is an intensity model and not a model for track forecasting. It's a consensus model of the following models: DSHP, LGEM, HWFI, HMNI.


That is NOT the same ICON. The ICON listed on the NHC site is just intensity averages of other models; it has no spatial component to it. The ICON plotted on Tropical Tidbits is a global model produced by Germany's weather service, info here: https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherf ... ption.html


Thank you...that is what I thought. :uarrow:
2 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2624 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:47 am

Gfs 12z at 54 hours as a noticable western extent to the ridge compared to the 6z...
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20017
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2625 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:49 am

Slower, a little SE of previous run.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2626 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:51 am

72 hours heading west with a nice thumb ridge to its nw.. by the time the 6z was heading wnw..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20017
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2627 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:52 am

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2628 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:53 am

About a 100 miles south of 6z at 84 hours.

Looks like brevard, indian river county..

Right on nhc track so far
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2660
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2629 Postby USTropics » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:56 am

It's subtle, but you can see weak ridging extends back into GA on the 12z GFS operational run at 78 hours:
Image
Last edited by USTropics on Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6387
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2630 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:56 am

12Z GFS aiming for central FL landfall a little south of 6Z and quite a bit south of 0Z
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
drewschmaltz
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 350
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2015 8:19 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2631 Postby drewschmaltz » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:57 am

I'm curious. The pressure drops to 981 by 30 hours on the 12Z GFS. Then it stays there and even raises 1mb over the next 18 hours - then continues lower somewhat rapidly. Is that mid-level dry air? Shear? ERC? I think a few expected Dorian to deepen over night. But, the comments about PR disrupting the feeder along with a little dry air was enough to hold him down. What do you think it is at hour 30 - 48 that keeps a lid on it?
0 likes   
I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. PLEASE CONSULT SOMEONE WHO DOES. START WITH THE NHC. ALL POSTS ARE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2632 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:57 am

Still no turn at 90 hows.. heading barely north of due west. Ridging filling back in to the north.. will itnhold..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20017
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2633 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:57 am

South!

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6387
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2634 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:58 am

12Z GFS landfall Melbourne at 102, furthest S of last 4 runs.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
beachman80

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2635 Postby beachman80 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:58 am

GFS about 30 miles due south from earlier run as it sits off the Florida coast. After 90hrs is the big question mark whether it stalls and sits, stalls and turns, or creeps inland moving west. Nobody knows.

Btw, I still think GFS is a little too far north. I think Miami to Jupiter still the ground zero point. GFS doesn't take the WSW dip like I think this is going to do.
1 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2636 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:59 am

Uh oh.. looks like bunch of building ridging to nw.. going into gulf maybe ?

108 hours its a good 150 miles south of 6z
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
caneseddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1173
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:31 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2637 Postby caneseddy » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:00 am

LarryWx wrote:12Z GFS landfall Melbourne at 102


Just south of Melbourne around Palm Bay.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2638 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:00 am

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 67.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2019 21.1N 67.1W WEAK
00UTC 30.08.2019 22.7N 68.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.08.2019 24.2N 70.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.4N 72.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2019 26.0N 74.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 26.3N 76.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.5N 78.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.7N 80.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2019 27.2N 81.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 27.5N 82.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2019 28.0N 84.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2019 28.6N 84.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.6N 85.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20017
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2639 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:01 am

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Weatherboy1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1189
Age: 49
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#2640 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:01 am

LarryWx wrote:12Z GFS landfall Melbourne at 102


Yep. Looks another what? 30-40 miles south? And a LONG way south from Jacksonville overnight...
1 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests