ATL: DORIAN - Models

[SunnyThoughts]

So we are flying into Orlando on Wednesday, the 4th (Disney). Will this hurricane be out by then? I don't want to jump the gun and cancel our trip or move it. It has been planned for some time now. Flying from Houston to Orlando.

Thoughts?

Considering the possibility of being hit by a category 4 hurricane, I wouldn’t risk it.

They’ll likely cancel/postpone your flight and Disney World will be closed anyway.

Yeah, Im sure the park will be closed. They just announced that the Fla State game will be moved from Jacksonville, over to Tallahassee on Saturday...so Im sure lots of other events are being cancelled or postponed..moved..etc.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF is running, FWIW.

[BobHarlem]

So we are flying into Orlando on Wednesday, the 4th (Disney). Will this hurricane be out by then? I don't want to jump the gun and cancel our trip or move it. It has been planned for some time now. Flying from Houston to Orlando.

Thoughts?

Considering the possibility of being hit by a category 4 hurricane, I wouldn’t risk it.

They’ll likely cancel/postpone your flight and Disney World will be closed anyway.

Yeah, Im sure the park will be closed. They just announced that the Fla State game will be moved from Jacksonville, over to Tallahassee on Saturday...so Im sure lots of other events are being cancelled or postponed..moved..etc.

The Orlando Parks will probably be closed Monday/Tuesday and may close early Sunday. Nothing official announced yet since they will wait for warnings, but that's typical. This includes Disney, Universal, and Sea World. It's a huge weekend for Disney with the new Star Wars land opening up today. (Galaxy's Edge) And this is putting a lot of pressure on it. Halloween events like Horror Nights start next weekend too, and this could damage stuff enough that it could limit/close part of that too. -- Very off topic for model thread, though.

[caneseddy]

HMON is running as well.

At 51 hours, identical to 6Z run but maybe a bit slower

[AtlanticWind]

What happened to the gfs legacy

[cjrciadt]

12z UKMET is the blue track that takes Dorian into GOM

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4a5494f4c47b66b9fead92e93dee62e45d32c369f024f7222bba3399051f2c95.gif

Im ignoring that loopy gom track for like enternity!!

[caneseddy]

HMON showing deepening hurricane slamming the Abacos at 72 hours. Looks like same position as 6Z run, but 6 hours slower. Looks like a direct impact in southern PBC/northern Broward if it continues its heading

[Evil Jeremy]

Big shift North by the GFS ensembles.

[chris_fit]

12 GFS Ens

[BobHarlem]

12Z UKMet much faster, Cat 3 landfall in West Palm Sunday afternoon, then Gulf and ends the run just off Mexico Beach as a Cat 3....

This storm and the models will be the end of me.

[p1nheadlarry]

I swear every operational model shifts one way, then their ensembles shift the opposite way.

[floridasun78]

12 GFS Ens

https://i.imgur.com/pCZQite.png

https://i.imgur.com/RPqKNLK.png

gfs alway been north track models

[CrazyC83]

Big shift North by the GFS ensembles.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL05_2019082912_GEFS_0-120h.png

Even with that, we CANNOT give the all clear for the southern part of Florida...they certainly can't let their guard down due to the changes that have been taking place.

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF through 42 hrs.. the turn is sooner by 6 hours or so..

[chris_fit]

Euro Init

[DESTRUCTION5]

Big shift North by the GFS ensembles.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL05_2019082912_GEFS_0-120h.png

Of course when operational shifts south .

[TheStormExpert]

Up next: The Euro

[will759227]

GFS shifts south with every other model finally, and then the ES goes north, the ES also ran north at 6am too.

[Aric Dunn]

Big shift North by the GFS ensembles.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL05_2019082912_GEFS_0-120h.png

Of course when operational shifts south .

the GFS ensembles are still the old processing core wont get upgraded until later. so they are going to more closely match the legacy.

[BobHarlem]

UK Graphic animation here
 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1167122216074567680