ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Patrick99]

The latest Euro pretty much rakes the entire east coast of Florida from Aventura to Jacksonville. I'm fine forgetting about that one if you guys are

[Bocadude85]

So with that latest Euro and GFS run how far south do you all think the NHC will shift the official track south? Or will they?

If they move it at all it might be a nudge south, Euro is showing the steering currents collapsing. My bet is on the UKMET.

[Hammy]

So with that latest Euro and GFS run how far south do you all think the NHC will shift the official track south? Or will they?

If they move it at all it might be a nudge south, Euro is showing the steering currents collapsing. My bet is on the UKMET.

Where's the site that has the UKMET? I can't find the bookmark.

[tailgater]

Dorian is a relatively small storm atm, is that likely to change or probably stay small for a Cat 3/4 storm?

[Michele B]

I liked the out to sea trend from this morning; didn't like the diving wsw trend from last night, was lukewarm on the buzz across the middle of the state trend from yesterday. I wonder what the afternoon and evening trend will be?
NHC seems pretty locked on a path for now no matter the trends. All depends on the turn and the ridge.

For me, the biggest problem is, the ENTIRE STATE (well, except for the panhandle) is in the cone, always has been, and remains. Until THAT changes, I will watch very closely.

There is a front draped down into north Florida that might get reinforced by at least a short wave. That helps define the western periphery of the ridging most of the time.

The Andrew analog from 1992 was a situation where the front actually split north of a relatively weak Andrew. The lower part of the front rolled away to the southwest as an upper level low. The ridging rapidly expanded west pulling Andrew into southeast Florida in the last 12 hours completely busting the forecast.

To their credit the NHC put an M on the map for Dorian's Friday position. "Robust hurricane"s often build robust pressure domes with an axis near their own position.

There is an upper level low to the east of Dorian ventilating but the ULL to the west appears to be filling rather than continuing to be a steering element.

We've got a few more runs to digest before the 5 PM update and my observations are just from looking at the high cirrus in the water vapor imagery.

At least now some of the models are considering a trough situation near the end of the run which might be the end result of a competing ridge anomaly caused by Dorians RI.

OK, please be patient with me, I'm trying to digest what all you wrote:

In BLUE: Are you saying that "front" is the edge telling us WHERE the end of the - "pushing Dorian west rather than opening a spot to turn north" is?


In RED: Can you please put a graphic showing that "M"?

GREEN: I have absolutely NO IDEA what this means!

Thanks for all your analysis, even if I don't understand most of it! It takes a lot of work (and brains) to sort all of this out!

You and Mark and Aric and many others are doing a phenomenal job of "educating" us dummies (well, ME!).

[gatorcane]

I think the NHC will shift the track south into Florida so it is in between the Euro and the GFS. I would personally give more weight to the Euro since it had support from other models

[Highteeld]

Back to T 4.5

TXNT28 KNES 291834
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DORIAN)

B. 29/1800Z

C. 22.1N

D. 67.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CENTER EMBEDDED IN MEDIUM GREY
WITH BANDING FEATURE RESULTING IN DT OF 4.5. MET IS 4.5. PT IS 4.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEVINE

[Airboy]

It's getting some more meat on it's bone, will probably get a lot bigger the coming days

[aperson]

Dorian is maintaining significant eyewall lightning for the first time in its lifecycle. What this means is left as an exercise to the reader


(ref: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined)

[hohnywx]

For me, the biggest problem is, the ENTIRE STATE (well, except for the panhandle) is in the cone, always has been, and remains. Until THAT changes, I will watch very closely.

There is a front draped down into north Florida that might get reinforced by at least a short wave. That helps define the western periphery of the ridging most of the time.

The Andrew analog from 1992 was a situation where the front actually split north of a relatively weak Andrew. The lower part of the front rolled away to the southwest as an upper level low. The ridging rapidly expanded west pulling Andrew into southeast Florida in the last 12 hours completely busting the forecast.

To their credit the NHC put an M on the map for Dorian's Friday position. "Robust hurricane"s often build robust pressure domes with an axis near their own position.

There is an upper level low to the east of Dorian ventilating but the ULL to the west appears to be filling rather than continuing to be a steering element.

We've got a few more runs to digest before the 5 PM update and my observations are just from looking at the high cirrus in the water vapor imagery.

At least now some of the models are considering a trough situation near the end of the run which might be the end result of a competing ridge anomaly caused by Dorians RI.

OK, please be patient with me, I'm trying to digest what all you wrote:

In BLUE: Are you saying that "front" is the edge telling us WHERE the end of the - "pushing Dorian west rather than opening a spot to turn north" is?


In RED: Can you please put a graphic showing that "M"?

GREEN: I have absolutely NO IDEA what this means!

Thanks for all your analysis, even if I don't understand most of it! It takes a lot of work (and brains) to sort all of this out!

You and Mark and Aric and many others are doing a phenomenal job of "educating" us dummies (well, ME!).

I can at least answer the one in red for you...the 11 AM NHC track:

[Sanibel]

Correction: HMON was in to Miami not HWRF...

[HurricaneEric]

Most concerning thing about that Euro run is the timing all matters. If Dorian is just a little bit faster (and/or the ridge pushing WSW is a bit stronger), a track landfalling in extreme Southern Florida and subsequent north turn up the spine of Florida more inland is very possible. It’d basically take the Irma track just on the eastern side of FL.

Either way the threat to SFL is increasing more and more, imo. If I’m not mistaken the Euro and UKMet models have been the ones performing best with Dorian? Not saying the GFS isn’t possible (a lot is possible this far out), but the southern trends with the better performing models are starting to concern me...


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[northjaxpro]

Dorian is a relatively small storm atm, is that likely to change or probably stay small for a Cat 3/4 storm?

Eyewall Replacement Cycles

They will expand the windfield of Dorian each time they occur. Dorian will go through a few of these EWRC over the next few days.

[tropicwatch]

What I don't want is for Dorian to enter the gulf and move north into the Panhandle. Talking about pouring salt into an open wound.

[gatorcane]

Most concerning thing about that Euro run is the timing all matters. If Dorian is just a little bit faster (and/or the ridge pushing WSW is a bit stronger), a track landfalling in extreme Southern Florida and subsequent north turn up the spine of Florida more inland is very possible. It’d basically take the Irma track just on the eastern side of FL.

Either way the threat to SFL is increasing more and more, imo. If I’m not mistaken the Euro and UKMet models have been the ones performing best with Dorian? Not saying the GFS isn’t possible (a lot is possible this far out), but the southern trends with the better performing models are starting to concern me...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agreed not to mention if you look back at major hurricanes hitting Florida from the east just about all of them favor South Florida from Jupiter/Stuart area south.

That said there is a chance Dorian could turn at the last minute and not make landfall in South Florida.

[GCANE]

Dorian is maintaining significant eyewall lightning for the first time in its lifecycle. What this means is left as an exercise to the reader


(ref: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined)

Could be creating a gamma-ray / positron beam.
Seriously, its happened before.

https://www.newsweek.com/lightning-eye- ... rth-940237

Also could be an indicator of RI

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... l-goes-glm
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/1 ... 7MWR2150.1

[Patrick99]

Most concerning thing about that Euro run is the timing all matters. If Dorian is just a little bit faster (and/or the ridge pushing WSW is a bit stronger), a track landfalling in extreme Southern Florida and subsequent north turn up the spine of Florida more inland is very possible. It’d basically take the Irma track just on the eastern side of FL.

Either way the threat to SFL is increasing more and more, imo. If I’m not mistaken the Euro and UKMet models have been the ones performing best with Dorian? Not saying the GFS isn’t possible (a lot is possible this far out), but the southern trends with the better performing models are starting to concern me...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Agreed not to mention if you look back at major hurricanes hitting Florida from the east just about all of them favor South Florida from Jupiter/Stuart area south.

That said there is a chance Dorian could turn at the last minute and not make landfall in South Florida.

They do, for the most part, and that little fact in the back of my mind is what worries me. For late August and September storms in this position, the most likely track is always a recurve, maybe clipping some portion of NC on the way out. If that's not an option, then SFL from Stuart on down and/or the Keys/Straits is typically option 2. What I don't see a lot of on the historical tracks is a WNW-bound major plowing into say, Daytona Beach.

[Hurrilurker]

Looks like it's still battling dry air from the south/southwest? Probably needs to shake that before it can really take off intensity wise.

[aperson]

Looks like it's still battling dry air from the south/southwest? Probably needs to shake that before it can really take off intensity wise.

Agreed. However, the mix of eyewall lightning alongside the CDO becoming more symmetric makes me suspect that the system is strengthening at a modest rate. Dry air is likely holding it back from serious RI right now in my opinion.

[GCANE]

Very fasting rotating eyewall hot towers firing off.
This and dense eyewall lightning likely indicates the EWRC is at or near the end and rapid intensification maybe underway.