ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[will759227]

Tampa east aka near wesley chapel. Costco no water or generators. Not that i expected it. I was told down in bradenton, no generators.. Water isn't a big deal yet. I was hoping to get a 3500 watt generator for backup and my laptop/internet at least. But, that seems impossible now.I do see some on amazon still, that say delivery by wednesday, but who knows if they delivering if it comes this way. With the euro shifting east, it may not even be necessary for the tampa bay area.

[drewschmaltz]

Tampa east aka near wesley chapel. Costco no water or generators. Not that i expected it. I was told down in bradenton, no generators.. Water isn't a big deal yet. I was hoping to get a 3500 watt generator for backup and my laptop/internet at least. But, that seems impossible now.I do see some on amazon still, that say delivery by wednesday, but who knows if they delivering if it comes this way. With the euro shifting east, it may not even be necessary for the tampa bay area.

I am a rep for Toro lawn Mowers. We have a dealer there Mowers Inc. He is getting in a shipment of generators I think 6500 watts and selling them at COST. He is selling hundreds of them. Tell him Drew at Wesco Sent you. And if anyone else anywhere else in Florida needs one.... Tell me and I'll send you to your closest dealer that I KNOW has them.

Edit: 5200 watt
Edit 2: 150 arrive tomorrow morning first come first serve.

And no, Toro doesn't sell generators. Just spreading the good word!!!

[Hurricane Andrew]

It's still got a little ways to go, but I believe that sometime between now and Sunday, we will see a period of steady (if not rapid) intensification. Anyone in FL should be preparing right now, especially the central and eastern areas of the state.

[drewschmaltz]

It's still got a little ways to go, but I believe that sometime between now and Sunday, we will see a period of steady (if not rapid) intensification. Anyone in FL should be preparing right now, especially the central and eastern areas of the state.

So does NHC - "M" by Friday @ 8am

[tropicwatch]

The Dorian two step

[GCANE]

Eyewall lightning has now dissipated
Event duration: 1 hr & 1 min
Saw one very large burst

[cjrciadt]

Should get sandbags today, everything else stocked up on.

[ozonepete]

So with that latest Euro and GFS run how far south do you all think the NHC will shift the official track south? Or will they?

The 2 new model runs show no reason to shift the track south at all.

[GCANE]

Very strong helicity with these latest towers.
Indicative of a mesovort.

[ronjon]

To see how much the 12z Euro is an outlier, here's travel times for landfalls from today's 12z model suite. The average landfall time from the nine other models not named Euro is 100 hrs.

GFS - 99 hrs (Vero Beach)
GFS Legacy - 99 hrs (Jupiter)
CMC - 117 hrs (Jupiter)
NAVGEM - 108 hrs (WPB)
ICON - 108 hrs (Ft Laud)
HWRF - 96 hrs (Melbourne)
HMON - 102 hrs (Miami)
NAM - 84 hrs (WPB)
UKMET - 84 hrs (WPB)
Euro - 144 hrs (WPB)

[aperson]

Very strong helicity with these latest towers.
Indicative of a mesovort.

I agree with your earlier assessment that the ERC is wrapping up. Looks like mesovorts have to fight it out for a bit until the new eye stabilizes its shape, but we should start to see one clear out on IR over the next few hours.

[BobHarlem]

Willing to bet 18z euro retreats from the last run. I'm always wildly suspicious about any big swings like this.

[Hurricane Jed]

Willing to bet 18z euro retreats from the last run.

Definitely possible

[ronjon]

Willing to bet 18z euro retreats from the last run.

You may not be able to tell since it only goes out to 90 hrs.

[Kingarabian]

[LarryWx]

Willing to bet 18z euro retreats from the last run.

You may not be able to tell since it only goes out to 90 hrs.

Good point. However, the ensembles out to 144, which may give a hint.

[Aric Dunn]

it is looking the ERC is nearly complete.

[BoudreauxWPB]

To see how much the 12z Euro is an outlier, here's travel times for landfalls from today's 12z model suite. The average landfall time from the nine other models not named Euro is 100 hrs.

GFS - 99 hrs (Vero Beach)
GFS Legacy - 99 hrs (Jupiter)
CMC - 117 hrs (Jupiter)
NAVGEM - 108 hrs (WPB)
ICON - 108 hrs (Ft Laud)
HWRF - 96 hrs (Melbourne)
HMON - 102 hrs (Miami)
NAM - 84 hrs (WPB)
UKMET - 84 hrs (WPB)
Euro - 144 hrs (WPB)

That's a pretty significant gap.

[Sanibel]

If Dorian gets north above and on top of the ULL and gets more under the ridge in a west track it will have a different orientation and perhaps not be affected by it like it is now...

[ozonepete]

it is looking the ERC is nearly complete.

Looks like it's already starting to crank up - the core has consolidated and symmetry is impressive again.