ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

To see how much the 12z Euro is an outlier, here's travel times for landfalls from today's 12z model suite. The average landfall time from the nine other models not named Euro is 100 hrs.

GFS - 99 hrs (Vero Beach)
GFS Legacy - 99 hrs (Jupiter)
CMC - 117 hrs (Jupiter)
NAVGEM - 108 hrs (WPB)
ICON - 108 hrs (Ft Laud)
HWRF - 96 hrs (Melbourne)
HMON - 102 hrs (Miami)
NAM - 84 hrs (WPB)
UKMET - 84 hrs (WPB)
Euro - 144 hrs (WPB)

The Euro is significantly slower, I don’t buy it

As for now the core has reorganized and is ready to go to town

[KimmieLa]

Dorian appears to be wedging in between the upper Low and ridge to the north...It could be inhibiting structure and jamming it up from intensifying for the moment..And the quadrant that does have good flow (southern) is drawing in dry air...

Im praying that it keeps on sucking in that dry air. That's the best thing that could happen.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If Dorian gets north above and on top of the ULL and gets more under the ridge in a west track it will have a different orientation and perhaps not be affected by it like it is now...

Depending on the strength and orientation, the ULL could help pinwheel it west...and provide ventilation

[BobHarlem]

To see how much the 12z Euro is an outlier, here's travel times for landfalls from today's 12z model suite. The average landfall time from the nine other models not named Euro is 100 hrs.

GFS - 99 hrs (Vero Beach)
GFS Legacy - 99 hrs (Jupiter)
CMC - 117 hrs (Jupiter)
NAVGEM - 108 hrs (WPB)
ICON - 108 hrs (Ft Laud)
HWRF - 96 hrs (Melbourne)
HMON - 102 hrs (Miami)
NAM - 84 hrs (WPB)
UKMET - 84 hrs (WPB)
Euro - 144 hrs (WPB)

The Euro is significantly slower, I don’t buy it

As for now the core has reorganized and is ready to go to town

For me, it was the fact that UK went from one of the slower ones, to now the fastest of the set. That just doesn't jive well with me and makes me doubt the euro going so far in the other direction. Particularly after Irma.

[Blinhart]

Dorian appears to be wedging in between the upper Low and ridge to the north...It could be inhibiting structure and jamming it up from intensifying for the moment..And the quadrant that does have good flow (southern) is drawing in dry air...

Im praying that it keeps on sucking in that dry air. That's the best thing that could happen.

It all depends on how dry that dry air actually is, it could actually fuel the system to get larger and stronger if it isn't completely dry. It could fuel it in expanding its field of coverage.

[Kingarabian]

CDO has become much more symmetrical in the past couple of hours:

[Sanibel]

If Dorian gets north above and on top of the ULL and gets more under the ridge in a west track it will have a different orientation and perhaps not be affected by it like it is now...

Depending on the strength and orientation, the ULL could help pinwheel it west...and provide ventilation

I'm no expert but I would guess the ULL would yield in that situation and erode...The ridge would become the stronger steering factor and the hurricane itself would become the stronger player than the ULL switching places so to speak...

BUT, we are talking a "mushy" synoptic here which tends to yield to a weakness which in turn yields to poleward...

All depends on how far the ridge sends it west...I'd assume the stronger the ridge the stronger the intensity...

Notice the storm's convection is in a wedge that points like an arrow...

[Astromanía]

This doesn't look healthy at all, at least for now, best wishes for Florida's residents, stay safe!, best wishes from Mexico

[ScottNAtlanta]

It still has that dry slot to work out, but its CDO is pretty much shielded from it

[Evil Jeremy]

CDO has become much more symmetrical in the past couple of hours:
https://i.imgur.com/Gqt0MVl.jpg

Just looking at that WNW-ESE orientation, it should start bending more towards the west soon.

[Evil Jeremy]

5pm landfall just around Vero Beach

EDIT: Day 4 and 5 points are essentially unchanged.

[Bayousaint]

Tampa east aka near wesley chapel. Costco no water or generators. Not that i expected it. I was told down in bradenton, no generators.. Water isn't a big deal yet. I was hoping to get a 3500 watt generator for backup and my laptop/internet at least. But, that seems impossible now.I do see some on amazon still, that say delivery by wednesday, but who knows if they delivering if it comes this way. With the euro shifting east, it may not even be necessary for the tampa bay area.

My dad decided to get me a generator before a storm. I started calling around, but everyone was sold out. An employee I spoke to gave me a lead to a place I would have never expected— AutoZone. Sure enough, they had generators and there was no line or wait. Could be worth a call.

[caneseddy]

From the discussion:

A west-northwestward to
westward motion should then continue into the weekend with Dorian
moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida
peninsula. The guidance envelope has nudged southward this cycle,
with the ECMWF and HMON along the southern side, and the GFS
bracketing the northern side. There has also been an increase in
along-track spread or speed differences with day 5 positions among
the dynamical models ranging from near the northwestern Bahamas to
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This appears to be the result of
differences in the models' depiction of the strength or lack thereof
of the western portion of the ridge by day 5. The new NHC track
forecast is essentially unchanged through the first 2 to 3 days, but
has been adjusted southward and somewhat slower than the previous
advisory at 96 and 120 hours.

The National Weather Service has begun 6-hourly upper-air soundings
across portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern United States.
Six-hourly balloons are also being launched in Bermuda and Nassau in
the Bahamas. A NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is ongoing,
and the data from this flight will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC
model cycle.

[NFLnut]

NHC now showing landfall ~Port St Lucie / Fort Pierce. 130 mph just before landfall.

[HurricaneBelle]

NHC now showing landfall ~Port St Lucie / Fort Pierce. 130 mph just before landfall.

And it's going to take 24 hours to move from there to just south of Kissimmee

[Kazmit]

This board has been rather quiet today. The calm before the storm? Hopefully everyone's preparing instead.

[NFLnut]

NHC now showing landfall ~Port St Lucie / Fort Pierce. 130 mph just before landfall.

And it's going to take 24 hours to move from there to just south of Kissimmee

.. and that's the kicker. If only it would move faster ..

[will759227]

NHC now showing landfall ~Port St Lucie / Fort Pierce. 130 mph just before landfall.

Since they've been adjusting their guidance based on euro being so far south... now that it's shifted north, makes me wonder what they are going to do... they did have 5 hours to look over the 12z euro.. so i dunno. i'm so confused. I don't know to go all out to have a generator or just stick with it and hope for the best. I am good on the rest. plenty of water and gas etc... And since being on west coast, obviously not dealing with a direct hit. Irma was within like 50 or so miles of land o lakes or less, and it took the bark off the trees.

[hurricaneCW]

CDO has become much more symmetrical in the past couple of hours:
https://i.imgur.com/Gqt0MVl.jpg

I think he'll begin a round of intensification later tonight into the morning. By this time tomorrow Dorian will be a Cat 2 or 3 storm.

[NDG]

To see how much the 12z Euro is an outlier, here's travel times for landfalls from today's 12z model suite. The average landfall time from the nine other models not named Euro is 100 hrs.

GFS - 99 hrs (Vero Beach)
GFS Legacy - 99 hrs (Jupiter)
CMC - 117 hrs (Jupiter)
NAVGEM - 108 hrs (WPB)
ICON - 108 hrs (Ft Laud)
HWRF - 96 hrs (Melbourne)
HMON - 102 hrs (Miami)
NAM - 84 hrs (WPB)
UKMET - 84 hrs (WPB)
Euro - 144 hrs (WPB)

The Euro is significantly slower, I don’t buy it

As for now the core has reorganized and is ready to go to town

If the Euro would had not been so inconsistent this year many times past its 72 hr forecast all my stock would had been on the Euro, this model is not the same from 5-11 years ago