ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

It appears as though the storm is strengthening again. Eye is becoming better defined on visible and IR presentation looks much better. Stronger, earlier, could mean OTS? Any METS have an opinion on this?

I'm not a pro met, but in MY OPINION, no way is this going out to sea. It's like trying to get past a brick wall. Even if the western side of that brick wall is weak, it just means that it will curve up the east coast, not out to sea. This was talked about on the weather channel.

[tolakram]

SLIDER floater

visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1038&y=1056.5

IR
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=999&y=1044.5

[wx98]

The NHC predicts this will reach cat 2 intensity late tonight/early tomorrow and a major by tomorrow afternoon. It's going to have to start ramping up soon if it wants to do that, but it looks like its EWRC is almost done which should allow for at least some strengthening now.

One word. Gulfstream.

Got a long way to go to get there

[jdjaguar]

SLIDER floater

visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1038&y=1056.5

IR
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=999&y=1044.5

Intensifying no doubt.

[jdjaguar]

The NHC predicts this will reach cat 2 intensity late tonight/early tomorrow and a major by tomorrow afternoon. It's going to have to start ramping up soon if it wants to do that, but it looks like its EWRC is almost done which should allow for at least some strengthening now.

One word. Gulfstream.

Got a long way to go to get there

Very true. But then boom.
Been tracking these storms since pen and paper.

[Highteeld]

Up, Up, and Away!

[Nimbus]

Just look how much slower the 5 day forecast has gotten between two days ago and now:

https://i.imgur.com/sMDCxTA.png
https://i.imgur.com/Z9OeZMF.png

It's like it's trying to lengthen its lifespan as much as possible!

At 5PM the NHC slowed the track down and brought it south after day 3..

"The new NHC track
forecast is essentially unchanged through the first 2 to 3 days, but
has been adjusted southward and somewhat slower than the previous
advisory at 96 and 120 hours."

Buys them some time to get tonight's data into the models.
They apparently will be looking at vertical profiles over Bermuda, and Nassau in
the Bahamas.
Maybe Levi will have some insight tonight?

[cjrciadt]

Tom Terry has the jacket off and its only Thursday!

[Hammy]

Satellite appearance reminding me of a mini version of Floyd right before it underwent it's period of intensification (which was also preceded by about a day or so where it was largely steady-state).

[ozonepete]

Just look how much slower the 5 day forecast has gotten between two days ago and now:

https://i.imgur.com/sMDCxTA.png
https://i.imgur.com/Z9OeZMF.png

It's like it's trying to lengthen its lifespan as much as possible!

At 5PM the NHC slowed the track down and brought it south.
Buys them some time to get tonight's data into the models.
They apparently will be looking at vertical profiles over Bermuda, and Nassau in
the Bahamas.
Maybe Levi will have some insight tonight?

The track was not brought south.

[johngaltfla]

Looking at the latest UKMET run is very depressing. And insane. Wow.

[Sanibel]

GFS has come south to meet UKMET and Euro...Extra Extra read all about it!...Big shift south!...

Even dips WSW at landfall!...

[gatorcane]

NHC will have to shift the track south this next advisory with the latest GFS track coming more in line with the UK and European models.

[johngaltfla]

NHC will have to shift the track south this next advisory with the latest GFS track coming more in line with the UK and European models.

UKMET is my worst case scenario. Last run for the Euro I don't see how such a recurve like that is possible, then again it is a tropical system and it is Florida so all bets are off.

[Weatherboy1]

Well, so much for the “GFS northern outlier” thing. Now plowing into my backyard/NE Palm Beach County on 18z run

[Astromanía]

This is why I'm team EPAC, I dont want to hype this type of dangerous tropical cyclones

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it took another gulp of dry air. Could be another dry air induced ERC on the way.

[galaxy401]

Ugh, a few days ago this felt like it would make landfall within 5 days. Now we are still within the 5 day mark with these slowdowns that the models and forecasts are showing. Becoming a bad headache for the people in Florida.

[brock berlin]

Does anyone think this storm will struggle with dry air and constant EWRC through its lifetime? Just curious.

[eastcoastFL]

Just look how much slower the 5 day forecast has gotten between two days ago and now:

https://i.imgur.com/sMDCxTA.png
https://i.imgur.com/Z9OeZMF.png

It's like it's trying to lengthen its lifespan as much as possible!

At 5PM the NHC slowed the track down and brought it south.
Buys them some time to get tonight's data into the models.
They apparently will be looking at vertical profiles over Bermuda, and Nassau in
the Bahamas.
Maybe Levi will have some insight tonight?

The track was not brought south.

I thought the disco said it was