ATL: DORIAN - Models

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supercane4867
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3141 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:52 pm

145kts heading due west towards the keys on HMON 120hr
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3142 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:53 pm

beachman80 wrote:I know the HMON is not a reliable model, but would anyone really be surprised if there track is right? The way this thing is trending south? I personally think Euro is going go even further south their next run.


I wouldn't be surprised if it goes through Miami and down towards the Keys before getting into the GoM.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3143 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:56 pm

Got to love fresh new g4 data !
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3144 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:56 pm

One thing is clear, a definite south trend toward south Florida today, after that is up in the air
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3145 Postby beachman80 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:57 pm

So HMON stalls out as a cat 4-5 over Key West. That’s Armageddon for that city.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3146 Postby Tyler Penland » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:57 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Got to love fresh new g4 data !
Is that in already? I thought it wouldn't be fully ingested til 0z.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3147 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:57 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Got to love fresh new g4 data !


What exactly are you talking about??? The most current models we have been talking about, or do you see something we haven't seen?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3148 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:58 pm

The Keys do not need this from the HMON, some are still recovering from Irma.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3149 Postby CaneCurious » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:58 pm

Ivanhater wrote:One thing is clear, a definite south trend toward south Florida today, after that is up in the air


Ivanhater! Glad to see you on here :D
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3150 Postby beachman80 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:58 pm

If the HMON came true, Key west may get a full day of sunshine next Tuesday as it sits in the middle of the eye all day.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3151 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:59 pm

18z HMON lower keys and into the GOM.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=05L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019082918&fh=96
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3152 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:00 pm

Tyler Penland wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Both HWRF and HMON make Dorian a CAT5
They also have a low-970s storm at hour 3 which is highly unlikely.

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Looks like it's getting into the low-970s already according to recon...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3153 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:01 pm

18Z Euro looks slightly north through 42 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3154 Postby psyclone » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:02 pm



Is it gonna do a labor day 35 and come up the west coast? Might as well...
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3155 Postby Tyler Penland » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:04 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
Tyler Penland wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Both HWRF and HMON make Dorian a CAT5
They also have a low-970s storm at hour 3 which is highly unlikely.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

Looks like it's getting into the low-970s already according to recon...
Wow. Actually a little surprised with the shear/dry air issues it's having.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3156 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:06 pm

Meanwhile the 18z HWRF is quite a bit slower with its landfall.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3157 Postby HeeBGBz » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:08 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Seems like with every model run Dorian keeps
on moving a little further south and west before it hooks north....it should be a little concerning for the Northern GOM folks. IMO


I've been expecting this more southern track. Seems to be on a familiar path. I have just been reading until it gets more defined one way or the other. UK and Icon have been making more sense.

Watching and waiting. Today is Katrinas 14th anniversary and I remain uneasy in Biloxi.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3158 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:09 pm

Just for reference last evenings HMON was near Melbourne. Huge shift in just 24 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3159 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:09 pm

BIG change with the NAVGEM. Recurves east of Florida.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3160 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:09 pm

NO Southerly component yet through 75hrs on the 18z Euro
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