ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Tyler Penland
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3161 Postby Tyler Penland » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:09 pm

TheProfessor wrote:Meanwhile the 18z HWRF is quite a bit slower with its landfall.
Also weakening some as the eye comes ashore.

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3162 Postby Kohlecane » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:10 pm

chris_fit wrote:18Z Euro looks slightly north through 42 hours


Can you post that
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3163 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:11 pm

Kohlecane wrote:
chris_fit wrote:18Z Euro looks slightly north through 42 hours


Can you post that


I can't it's from a paid site.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3164 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:11 pm

gatorcane wrote:BIG change with the NAVGEM. Recurves east of Florida.



Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3165 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:12 pm

WSW Dip at 78hrs on the 18z Euro - still N of the 12Z but not by a huge margin
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3166 Postby hohnywx » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:BIG change with the NAVGEM. Recurves east of Florida.


Let’s remember that the NAVGEM errors at Day 5 were so high that they were off the chart.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3167 Postby edu2703 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:15 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3168 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:15 pm

18z EURO ends with it pretty much crawling/stalling on the southern tip of Abaco island in the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3169 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:15 pm

chris_fit wrote:WSW Dip at 78hrs on the 18z Euro - still N of the 12Z but not by a huge margin


Does this only go thru 90 hrs?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3170 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:BIG change with the NAVGEM. Recurves east of Florida.



https://i.postimg.cc/c4rwKt5n/nvg10-sfc10m-150-go-mex.gif


The NAVGEM is usually on the east side of guidance(I'm not saying is solution is impossible, there are some EPS members that show a similar path.) I was actually quite shocked when the NAVGEM was showing a south Florida hit a while back.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3171 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:16 pm

sma10 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:WSW Dip at 78hrs on the 18z Euro - still N of the 12Z but not by a huge margin


Does this only go thru 90 hrs?



Yes
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3172 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:17 pm

Models really struggling now resolving the interplay between the ULL and the ridge. Ive haven't seen this much wild track descrepancy in the 4-5 day timeframe in a long time.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3173 Postby MacTavish » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:19 pm

lsuhurricane wrote:HMON really trending towards the Keys on this run. This thing may not get picked up by the trough


Recurve IVO florida (over land or not) is a consensus among operational forecast models and a large portion of ensembles. HMON is more of an intensity model based in statistical inputs from systems in similar regions and environments.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3174 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:19 pm

18Z GFS Ens

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3175 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:20 pm

chris_fit wrote:18z EURO ends with it pretty much crawling/stalling on the southern tip of Abaco island in the Bahamas.


So 26N, 77W basically?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3176 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:21 pm

Much more GFS ensembles in the gulf it looks like. A huge cluster toward Florida big bend/Apalachicola
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3177 Postby chris_fit » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:22 pm

sma10 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:18z EURO ends with it pretty much crawling/stalling on the southern tip of Abaco island in the Bahamas.


So 26N, 77W basically?


Yup
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3178 Postby Blinhart » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:23 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Much more GFS ensembles in the gulf it looks like. A huge cluster toward Florida big bend/Apalachicola


That's what I saw also. So the West trend might be starting now that the upper air data is getting incorporated into the models????
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3179 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:24 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3180 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:25 pm

Noticed that the GFS ensembles are pretty much all north of the operational on approach to FL.
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