ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Noticed that the GFS ensembles are pretty much all north of the operational on approach to FL.

This has been said many times...


The gfs ensembles are still on the old processor core.. they will be closer to legacy

[AxaltaRacing24]

Noticed that the GFS ensembles are pretty much all north of the operational on approach to FL.

Those are based off the GFS legacy FWIW.

[SFLcane]

Anyone has the 18z euro graphic?

[WeatherHoon]

Or provide coordinates from the 18z euro.

[AutoPenalti]

Anyone has the 18z euro graphic?

It’s a premium model so, unless someone posts it elsewhere, it can’t be distributed.

[STRiZZY]

Did anyone post the UKmet? It runs at 8pm et correct?

[Nimbus]

18Z Navgem relocates the polar vortex into Atlantic Canada and a short wave recurves Dorian east of Florida.

You don't see that every day..

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro through 90 hours: About the same pressure 960mb, and more NE than the 12z run. Still has that WSW dip.

[hohnywx]

Did anyone post the UKmet? It runs at 8pm et correct?

No, 0z run usually comes around 10:30-11ish.

[Aric Dunn]

for what its worth..

[NFLnut]

18z Euro through 90 hours: About the same pressure 960mb, and more NE than the 12z run. Still has that WSW dip.

NE at what point, if you don't mind sharing? More OTS on the coast-ride?

[ConvergenceZone]

BIG change with the NAVGEM. Recurves east of Florida.

Perhaps I was way wrong thinking that this didn't have a chance of curving out to sea........I guess we'll see if other models also start to trend it out to sea over time.....Too early to say

[TexWx]

for what its worth..

https://i.ibb.co/194SXf9/ecmwf-dorian05l-atlantic-90.png

Yikes

[NDG]

18z Euro through 90 hours: About the same pressure 960mb, and more NE than the 12z run. Still has that WSW dip.

That earlier 12z operational run was a bit outlier with that SW dip compared to its ensemble mean.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro through 90 hours: About the same pressure 960mb, and more NE than the 12z run. Still has that WSW dip.

NE at what point, if you don't mind sharing? More OTS on the coast-ride?

Basically the location point on the 12z Euro @ hour 96 which you can view here:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2912&fh=96

And maybe about 10-20 miles NE from that location. So a very subtle difference.

[Nimbus]

BIG change with the NAVGEM. Recurves east of Florida.

Perhaps I was way wrong thinking that this didn't have a chance of curving out to sea........I guess we'll see if other models also start to trend it out to sea over time.....Too early to say

The NAVGEM relocates the polar vortex.
Very suspicious.

[NDG]

To my surprise TVCN actually shifted to the right, wth?

[Kingarabian]

FWIW, GEPS (CMC ensembles) mean is also OTS:

[AxaltaRacing24]

To my surprise TVCN actually shifted to the right, wth?

https://i.imgur.com/fMMBYYm.png

Those far right outliers likely amplified that.

[Ken711]

FWIW, GEPS (CMC ensembles) mean is also OTS:
https://i.imgur.com/DRTt5LS.png

Would be a nice trend to develop if the other models also follow the OTS path.