ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

It's clearly strengthening/strengthened as Recon indicates. But when I see this satellite image, I see dry air intrusion, outflow becoming restricted, and some shear affecting the CDO. Dorian does as he pleases.

TC's are weird some can take the shear and dry air others cant

Seems like mid vs upper level--I think Matthew for example was undergoing 30kt shear when it became a 5.

I think Michael also had moderate shear in the Gulf along with dry air. Ended up being a non factor.

[Hurricane Jed]

Levi with a new video:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

My biggest takeaway was Lake O could have a lot of rain. Showing almost two days of a hurricane parked nearby. That could be feet of rain. Dike could have issues.

I was wondering the same thing. Don’t need a repeat of the 1928 storm

[CrazyC83]

NOAA plane just measured 98 kt FL and 92 kt SFMR. That definitely supports an intensity of 90 kt.

[Kingarabian]

NOAA plane just measured 98 kt FL and 92 kt SFMR. That definitely supports an intensity of 90 kt.

Solid cat.2.

[CrazyC83]

NOAA plane just measured 98 kt FL and 92 kt SFMR. That definitely supports an intensity of 90 kt.

Solid cat.2.

Yep, that would be 105 mph.

[Kingarabian]

NOAA plane just measured 98 kt FL and 92 kt SFMR. That definitely supports an intensity of 90 kt.

Solid cat.2.

Yep, that would be 105 mph.

Probably almost counts as rapid intensification since thats a 20mph increase from the last advisory.

[gfsperpendicular]

NOAA plane just measured 98 kt FL and 92 kt SFMR. That definitely supports an intensity of 90 kt.

Solid cat.2.

Yep, that would be 105 mph.

That would be 6 hours ahead of schedule, as the last advisory had 90kt/105mph at 5am tomorrow.

[Ian2401]

its strange, looking at satellite imagery you wouldnt necessarily expect it to be rapidly intensifying. but oh boy when you go under the hood

[1900hurricane]

TC's are weird some can take the shear and dry air others cant

Seems like mid vs upper level--I think Matthew for example was undergoing 30kt shear when it became a 5.

Upper level shear isn't nearly as disruptive, especially to weaker storms that don't reach that high into the atmosphere. Mid-level shear is deadly. It seems the shear is mostly aloft right now.

We can actually see the shear layer thanks to the upper air flight recently. Looks mostly in the 300-200 mb layer, which is a little below anvil level, but still fairly high up.

[Blinhart]

Yeah science, it is looking good for where it’s at. I’m thinking 72 hours people will be using their most monstrous type descriptive terms. Dorian always had the look of a system that would explode into a super scary looking system as it came up into the 20’s north and certainly continue to deepen at least through 35N or so (subject to mature system fluctuations and ERc’s).

I think they will have to go with 100 MPH with that 92 kt SMFR

[Yellow Evan]

Easy call to raise it to 90 knots.

[tropicwatch]

The differences between what NOAA is reporting and what the AF is reporting is kind of weird. Personally I go with the AF because they have 40+ years of experience flying into these things and NOAA is a relative newcomer. Will be interesting to see who the NHC leans towards in the next update.

[Blinhart]

Yeah science, it is looking good for where it’s at. I’m thinking 72 hours people will be using their most monstrous type descriptive terms. Dorian always had the look of a system that would explode into a super scary looking system as it came up into the 20’s north and certainly continue to deepen at least through 35N or so (subject to mature system fluctuations and ERc’s).

I think they will have to go with 100 MPH with that 92 kt SMFR

But of course the way this is intensifying it could go up to 110 or 115 MPH by the time they are ready to release the next update.

[Nasdaq]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1167251157976276993




 https://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX/status/1167260774429011972

[NDG]

AF recon finds 94 knots at flight level and pressure seems to have come down a couple mb.

[Chris90]

Dorian reminds me of Harvey a little bit, purely on his intensification pattern, not anything else.
When Harvey came off the Yucatan he intensified decently quickly to Cat 1, then he got into an eyewall cycle where the pressure got down into the 970s and the winds stayed fairly steady while he pondered what kind of structure he wanted, and when he decided, that pressure dropped and his winds went up. I think if he didn't have Texas there to stop him, he could have definitely made a decent run at Cat 5.
Dorian has kind of done the same thing, got it together yesterday, then took a big pause while he thought about his structure and hovered in the Cat 1 range with the pressure dropping into the 970s-low 80s, and now it seems like the point where he has decided and we're going to see his pressure take a bigger drop and his winds crank up. I think we could see 120kts in the next 24 hours before another eyewall cycle begins.

[tropicwatch]

AF recon finds 94 knots at flight level and pressure seems to have come down a couple mb.

5-6mb drop is pretty stout.

[galaxy401]

Looks like Dorian is bumping more WNW in the most recent frames. Turning now or just a wobble?

[eastcoastFL]

Is it wobble watching time yet?

[Ian2401]

Looks like Dorian is bumping more WNW in the most recent frames. Turning now or just a wobble?

still looks NW to me