ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like Dorian is bumping more WNW in the most recent frames. Turning now or just a wobble?

I would think a more WNW motion would be kicking in imminently given Dorian's current horizontal elongation.

[ozonepete]

Is it wobble watching time yet?

apparently, lol.

[jlauderdal]

Is it wobble watching time yet?

Its always wobble watching time especially close to look landfall. Did you go to denver?

[Ian2401]

seems like the windfield has increased a touch as well. will only continue to grow as this thing intensifies and eventually goes through EWRCs

[eastcoastFL]

Is it wobble watching time yet?

Its always wobble watching time especially close to look landfall. Did you go to denver?

Just finished putting up shutters. Flight leaves pbi at 6:55am. I should probably sleep soon. I took my dog to my family that lives in boynton so I hope it’s not too bad there. They’re stubborn and never leave...

[tailgater]

Looks like Dorian is bumping more WNW in the most recent frames. Turning now or just a wobble?

I would think a more WNW motion would be kicking in imminently given Dorian's current horizontal elongation.

Looking at the last recon fixes, I’d say it’s starting. Might be wobbling though.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like Dorian is bumping more WNW in the most recent frames. Turning now or just a wobble?

I would think a more WNW motion would be kicking in imminently given Dorian's current horizontal elongation.

I’m looking at your signature and I don’t remember fay or Colin. Were they hurricanes ?

[jaxfladude]

Still nervous about Dorian impacts here in NE FLA even if it hits further south...very strong winds like maybe high TS/Cat 1 at worst and very serious flooding rains my big worry I think no met tho.....basing off the local tv mets this evening newscasts....praying for a miracle for all concern....
Things will change.....

[Highteeld]

Looking like 976-7mb/90kt right now

[Blinhart]

Still nervous about Dorian impacts here in NE FLA even if it hits further south...very strong winds like maybe high TS/Cat 1 at worst and very serious flooding rains my big worry I think no met tho.....basing off the local tv mets this evening newscasts....praying for a miracle for all concern....
Things will change.....

If it continues on the westerly projection, then WSW and some how makes it into the GoM, I wouldn't be shocked if Jacksonville doesn't end up getting that much from Dorian. Just my .02

[sbcc]

I’m looking at your signature and I don’t remember fay or Colin. Were they hurricanes ?

They were TS.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Fay_(2008)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Colin_(2016)

[jlauderdal]

Is it wobble watching time yet?

Its always wobble watching time especially close to look landfall. Did you go to denver?

Just finished putting up shutters. Flight leaves pbi at 6:55am. I should probably sleep soon. I took my dog to my family that lives in boynton so I hope it’s not too bad there. They’re stubborn and never leave...

Safe travels, you should take the dog, boynton is in jeopardy of the core

[jlauderdal]

Still nervous about Dorian impacts here in NE FLA even if it hits further south...very strong winds like maybe high TS/Cat 1 at worst and very serious flooding rains my big worry I think no met tho.....basing off the local tv mets this evening newscasts....praying for a miracle for all concern....
Things will change.....

You have very legit shot of very high winds, you might get hit from the south or the west

[wx98]

Officially a Cat 2 now
90 kt/105 mph 977 mb

[Evil Jeremy]

Another shift south in the cone, now landfall around Port St Lucie

.5 and .6 degrees south at 96 and 120 hrs.

[Buck]

11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 29
Location: 23.3°N 68.4°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 977 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[Blown Away]

Hmmm... Maybe a slight westerly wobble...

[TheStormExpert]

Not a good trend for S.FL.

[ronyan]

Forecast to be 140mph in the latest advisory.

[Evil Jeremy]

From the discussion, starting with some insight into the NHC's frustrations this week from Forecaster Brown:

"As you can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder
the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path
of the hurricane. There's been a notable trend on this model cycle
toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be
seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance. The track forecast is
shifted southward beyond 36 hours, and is about 30 n mi south of the
previous one at 96 h. We will see if this southward trend in the
models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets
incorporated into the 00Z models. Users are reminded to not focus
on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4
and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively."