ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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jlauderdal
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3001 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:00 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Another shift south in the cone, now landfall around Port St Lucie

.5 and .6 degrees south at 96 and 120 hrs.
They came farther south than i thought they would, this trend needs to stop immediately.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3002 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:01 pm

1900hurricane wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:980mb pressure and 80kt winds lines up with the traditional pressure/wind relationship better.

Yep, lining up much better right now. Here are my KZC rips using r34 and rOCI, respectively. I'm curious to see how the pressure/wind relationship progresses from here though, since it seems to still be in quasi-eyewall replacement mode. Will it keep closer to expected KZC values now or will it deviate again?

[removed a bunch of KZC output]

And just like that, we're running winds higher than typical with this pressure according to KZC again. More typical pressures with 90 kt would be 970 mb or so. Maybe the pressure will catch back up again later?
>>> l = 23.1
>>> c = 10
>>> oci = 1012
>>> roci = 100
>>> r34 = 60
>>> v = 90
>>> KZC(KZCdP(v, c, r34, l), oci)
968.8332936866991
>>> KZC(KZCroci(v, c, roci, l), oci)
969.9871020200325
Last edited by 1900hurricane on Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3003 Postby sbcc » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:01 pm

One ominous sentence from the forecast discussion:

Unfortunately, I don't see any
large-scale factors that would prevent Dorian from becoming an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane during the next few days.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3004 Postby FLeastcoast » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:01 pm

jaxfladude wrote:Still nervous about Dorian impacts here in NE FLA even if it hits further south...very strong winds like maybe high TS/Cat 1 at worst and very serious flooding rains my big worry I think no met tho.....basing off the local tv mets this evening newscasts....praying for a miracle for all concern.... :flag:
Things will change.....


I am not far from you and I am very nervous also.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3005 Postby psyclone » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:03 pm

Good drop south on this advisory. Notice yet again the system's endpoint refuses to gain longitude..and it's now sufficiently south that the wind probs are reducing in the tampa bay and nature coast areas. meanwhile west palm now has a 50% chance of hurricane force winds. Now that is serious stuff..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3006 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:04 pm

Forecasted to make landfall Monday Evening near Stuart, FL.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3007 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:04 pm

I had posted this in the Model forum, but felt it should go here. Hoping a pro met will chim in, need to decide if I take the boat in Key Largo off the davits and tie it down to the trailer. Need time to do so, then need to take care of the Miami home any advice would be much appreciated what type of weather can be expected down there.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3008 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:05 pm

sbcc wrote:One ominous sentence from the forecast discussion:

Unfortunately, I don't see any
large-scale factors that would prevent Dorian from becoming an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane during the next few days.


You can tell Eric Blake is in the path of this thing.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3009 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:06 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:I had posted this in the Model forum, but felt it should go here. Hoping a pro met will chim in, need to decide if I take the boat in Key Largo off the davits and tie it down to the trailer. Need time to do so, then need to take care of the Miami home any advice would be much appreciated what type of weather can be expected down there.
Prepare for a major in both locations, dont need a pro met for that advice. Good luck with your preps.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3010 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:08 pm

Thank u was hoping the southern drop hasd stopped but after all this the model back and forth no one knows
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3011 Postby Hurrilurker » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:09 pm

Will they order evacuations? If so, how long can they wait? If it’s less than a couple days out, it’s probably not enough time considering Florida’s population and narrow options for escape. I sympathize with all the scientists and even politicians who have to make the call, this one is a really vexing problem.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3012 Postby Cypresso » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:10 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Thank u was hoping the southern drop hasd stopped but after all this the model back and forth no one knows


Seems like more and more is trending South with each run.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3013 Postby norva13x » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:11 pm

We in Central Florida may escape some of this now. Not that I wish it on anyone.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3014 Postby Ken711 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:12 pm

Cypresso wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Thank u was hoping the southern drop hasd stopped but after all this the model back and forth no one knows


Seems like more and more is trending South with each run.


And slower each run.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3015 Postby will759227 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:12 pm

75 mph inland .. man that area is going to get hammered,, it's going to drop down to almost a TS about 50 miles inland
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3016 Postby Ken711 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:13 pm

norva13x wrote:We in Central Florida may escape some of this now. Not that I wish it on anyone.


Way too soon to signal the all clear for any parts of FL and the SE for that matter.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3017 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:13 pm

That is my point and concern they Keys will close down the road going south to evacuate people north, so I can not wait to long.
Last edited by Miami Storm Tracker on Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3018 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:13 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Thank u was hoping the southern drop hasd stopped but after all this the model back and forth no one knows
We know that the trend isnt our friend in sofla, prepare for a major hurricane including the upper keys
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3019 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:14 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:Another shift south in the cone, now landfall around Port St Lucie

.5 and .6 degrees south at 96 and 120 hrs.
They came farther south than i thought they would, this trend needs to stop immediately.


I don't think it makes any difference if it goes North or South as someone would still get hit. If there is any good news, it's if on the outside chance that it ends up in the Gulf, it weakens pretty fast as it moves inland, so IF it ever emerged in the gulf, there will not be much left of it, so no worries about re-development as not much ocean left before it heads North, just lots of rain.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3020 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:14 pm

norva13x wrote:We in Central Florida may escape some of this now. Not that I wish it on anyone.
Its going to turn, you could get hit by a hurricane
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