ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Beyond three to four days the models seem to be a total mess. I've seldom seen such confusion in the medium range. I suppose it is because there is no strong front to pick up the storm, only high pressure to steer it interspaced with some weak upper-level disturbances.

I hope the confusion clears up soon so the track becomes more certain and people in the path can make appropriate preparations.

[beachman80]

So far 6-18 hrs seems NW

It’s slightly south of previous run

[Aric Dunn]

pretty much zero change in the synoptics on the 00z from 18z gfs.. meaning most of the data probably made it into the 18z GFS

[catskillfire51]

So far 6-18 hrs seems NW

It’s slightly south of previous run

Yes sorry i was just talking about direction, not really on the straight west run yet

[AutoPenalti]

So far 6-18 hrs seems NW

It’s south.

[will759227]

pretty much zero change in the synoptics on the 00z from 18z gfs.. meaning most of the data probably made it into the 18z GFS

hmmm nhc claimed the 00zs would have new drop data. guess not?

[Aric Dunn]

pretty much zero change in the synoptics on the 00z from 18z gfs.. meaning most of the data probably made it into the 18z GFS

hmmm nhc claimed the 00zs would have new drop data. guess not?

No just means the data got into the 18z run

[beachman80]

Virtually unchanged through 48 hrs on 00z gfs

[Aric Dunn]

Virtually unchanged through 48 hrs on 00z gfs

except it being about 30 to 50 miles south of the 18z.. Synoptics are similar though.

[catskillfire51]

Virtually unchanged through 48 hrs on 00z gfs

except it being about 30 to 50 miles south of the 18z.. Synoptics are similar though.

And even more then the 12z

[SouthDadeFish]

The 60-h 00Z GFS forecast has Dorian in almost the same exact spot as the 12Z 72-h EC forecast (valid at 12Z Sunday). Really good agreement through this point.

[Aric Dunn]

The 60-h 00Z GFS forecast has Dorian in almost the same exact spot as the 12Z 72-h EC forecast (valid at 12Z Sunday). Really good agreement through this point.

??

its about 50 miles or more to the eSE at 72hours..

EDIT.. nevermind.. you said EC.. lol

[lando]

GFS is due west of WPB and heading straight W if not WSW at hour 78

[catskillfire51]

Ridge looks stronger this run or is it me

[Blinhart]

The 60-h 00Z GFS forecast has Dorian in almost the same exact spot as the 12Z 72-h EC forecast (valid at 12Z Sunday). Really good agreement through this point.

??

its about 50 miles or more to the eSE at 72hours..

EDIT.. nevermind.. you said EC.. lol

And every minor movement further South is just more trouble in the long run.

[Aric Dunn]

Ridge looks stronger this run or is it me

yes the 591 ridge is farther west. and with a little thumb ridge like the Euro.

[bamajammer4eva]

Ridge is stronger at 78hr

[Blinhart]

Ridge looks stronger this run or is it me

yes the 591 ridge is farther west. and with a little thumb ridge like the Euro.

Does the model have the mysterious trough that should be influencing the weakness in the future???

[Aric Dunn]

Ridge looks stronger this run or is it me

yes the 591 ridge is farther west. and with a little thumb ridge like the Euro.

Does the model have the mysterious trough that should be influencing the weakness in the future???

yes but slightly less amplified. pretty zonal over the ohio valley.

[Aric Dunn]

at 90 hours the ridging from the plains is expanding east much more than the 18z. no north on this run.. and the 300mb flow is also present.. wsw to sw from the gfs coming ?