ATL: DORIAN - Models
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
HOUR 96- GFS about to make land fall at Palm Beach Island, LOW RES 958 MB
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:Blinhart wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:
yes the 591 ridge is farther west. and with a little thumb ridge like the Euro.
Does the model have the mysterious trough that should be influencing the weakness in the future???
yes but slightly less amplified. pretty zonal over the ohio valley.
So that would mean less effect on Dorian, correct???
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:rdcrds wrote:Yeah I’m lost with these models . Now gfs is south and euro is north , now gfs has it going way west. Now euro does opposite
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I know we keep saying this daily, but we should begin to know more starting tonight. We will know much more Friday night.
With the anticipated slowdown we may still not know by Friday night.
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Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
There is also no large mid level low over the pacific NW. synoptic wise after the first 72 hours. the 00z GFS is different than the 18z.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
lando wrote:HOUR 96- GFS about to make land fall at Palm Beach Island, LOW RES 958 MB
Looks like 945.
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Lane
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catskillfire51
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:at 90 hours the ridging from the plains is expanding east much more than the 18z. no north on this run.. and the 300mb flow is also present.. wsw to sw from the gfs coming ?
The bigger weakness is the one stretching from the dakotas down to Texas?
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
a good 50 mile shift to the south again.. heading west..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
GFS Legacy shifts south now..looks like Cat 4 landfall around Jupiter or just north of there
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will759227
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
South is bad for everyone in florida. Because further south, means more of it will be on the east side of the storm.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
940 at 102hrs almost landfall. (Legacy)
Last edited by Lane on Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Lane
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.08.2019
HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 68.0W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.08.2019 22.8N 68.0W MODERATE
12UTC 30.08.2019 24.4N 69.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.5N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2019 26.0N 72.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 26.3N 74.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.6N 76.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.8N 77.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.7N 78.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.4N 79.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2019 26.4N 80.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 27.0N 81.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 27.7N 83.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2019 28.3N 83.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 68.0W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.08.2019 22.8N 68.0W MODERATE
12UTC 30.08.2019 24.4N 69.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.5N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2019 26.0N 72.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 26.3N 74.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.6N 76.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.8N 77.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.7N 78.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.4N 79.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2019 26.4N 80.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 27.0N 81.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 27.7N 83.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2019 28.3N 83.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
looks like it might sneak into the gulf now..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Ukmet into Delray Beach.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Lane wrote:940 at 102hrs almost landfall. (Legacy)
Looks like landfall just south of West Palm Beach
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beachman80
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Definitely moves a bit quicker through Florida. Compared to 18z it was mostly SE the whole run and through 114 hrs it’s now SW from 18z. It does look like it is eyeing the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Over 16 hrs Dorian only moves across 3/4 of the state.... very scary
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
UKMET touch south.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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AdamFirst
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Any of you good folks have a map plot of the UKMET coordinates?
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