ATL: DORIAN - Models

[SouthFloridawx]

Do you have the plots?

UKMET touch south.

[will759227]

Slightly west than previous run at 126. i only know because it's right on top of me lol

[Aric Dunn]

ukmet.

[Highteeld]

Brutal forecast by the nam3k

[Blown Away]

00z GFS looks like a very classic Florida hurricane track... No hurky jerky stuff, just smooth W to WNW and NW turn over Florida. Classic.

[NFLnut]

UKMET has insisted on a GOM entry all along. Still holding strong. NHC I think now has landfall close to correct but I'm not buying a 40 mile westward move to Okeechobee taking 24 hrs.

[beachman80]

Only thing with UK is whether it’s going to make that big a jump to the NNW before the turn.

[MrJames]

Slight shift east in the GOM for the UKM

[gatorcane]

I have to admit I am getting worried for us in SE Florida with the 00Z guidance coming in. Crossing my fingers the Euro shows something more positive.

[JtSmarts]

00z GFS looks like a very classic Florida hurricane track... No hurky jerky stuff, just smooth W to WNW and NW turn over Florida. Classic.

New UKMET and GFS actually in decent agreement, the main difference is that the UKMET does make it back into the GULF and the GFS starts moving north along the WC of Florida.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Based on the runs of the GFS and the UKMET does anyone see any adjustments to the NHC track on the next advisory?

[BobHarlem]

GFS landfall WPB runs up spine toward the western side, GFS Legacy landfall WPB runs up spine along the eastern Side. Pick your poison.

[bamajammer4eva]

Almost making a loop over the peninsula @ 144

[will759227]

UKMET has insisted on a GOM entry all along. Still holding strong. NHC I think now has landfall close to correct but I'm not buying a 40 mile westward move to Okeechobee taking 24 hrs.

can you imagine a hurricane sitting on top of you for 24 hours? destruction.

[will759227]

Based on the runs of the GFS and the UKMET does anyone see any adjustments to the NHC track on the next advisory?

no, and the speed of all this will not be known until it happens.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Will so much for forcasting then, everyone wil know when it happens

[Blinhart]

Based on the runs of the GFS and the UKMET does anyone see any adjustments to the NHC track on the next advisory?

no, and the speed of all this will not be known until it happens.

It won't be made until the 5am update unless they see something serious and have to do a special TWD, but I do suspect them to move the plots further South and the 5th day plot being a little further SW.

[Bocadude85]

I have to admit I am getting worried for us in SE Florida with the 00Z guidance coming in. Crossing my fingers the Euro shows something more positive.

I am getting very worried for you guys in S. Fla, assuming no major change in the Euro track I’ll be boarding my flight to FLL Saturday morning

[MrJames]

[SootyTern]

at 90 hours the ridging from the plains is expanding east much more than the 18z. no north on this run.. and the 300mb flow is also present.. wsw to sw from the gfs coming ?

Aric, any chance that Dorian gets 'handed off' to this stronger ridge to the west after coming to the edge of the Bermuda high?