ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Aric Dunn]

the key thing is track and speed.

faster and the little wsw motion is happening farther west..

[jlauderdal]

Seems like the Euro dropped the southerly component to the track, but a bit hard to tell with the 24-hour positions

It did drop it, looks a little more reasonable and now some real consensus with the gfs on the overall solution..need the ensembles to tighten up...delray beach to fort pierce looks good for landfall now

[caneseddy]

https://i.imgur.com/ac7QmPn.png

There’s the WSW dip

[galaxy401]

Sharp turn northward while inland.

[Aric Dunn]

turns nnw just after landfall. luckily thats after 5 days. it will change..

the ensembles will ikely be split in half again..

[KBBOCA]

Folks at the Hurricane Center are probably starting to really feel worried about this storm.

Dr. Eric Blake tweeted a little while ago that his glance at the latest model runs was going to make sleep difficult tonight. Terrifying stuff. Dr. Knabb too has begun expressing serious concern. The idea of such a massive storm just sitting over and lashing the major metro areas for a LONG time is the stuff of nightmares,

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks like we got us an old fashioned consensus:






dice gen

[caneseddy]

Looks like we got us an old fashioned consensus:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/z7sF2W0/bourbon-old-fashioned-720x720-recipe.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/bmGRqKL/ecmwf-z500-mslp-watl-5.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/pKmMx6j/gem-z500-mslp-watl-17.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/km8XrHn/gfs-z500-mslp-watl-17.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/n041swN/gfs-legacy-z500-mslp-watl-17.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/LYv8MXz/icon-z500-mslp-watl-33.png [/url]
dice gen

Yep, unfortunately it’s not good for South Florida...

[Sanibel]

Where did Euro go for 102 & 108hrs?

[northjaxpro]

very close to ukmet and gfs.

deepening while coming in.
https://i.ibb.co/qYhsxmc/ecmwf-dorian05l-atlantic-96.png

Dorian moving over the Gulf Stream current at this juncture thus explaining the rapid strengthening on the run.

[WeatherEmperor]

Another look at the 00z Euro...

[i://i.imgur.com/XaHS0zH.jpg[/img]

Absolutely horrible scenario. All of Palm Beach and most of Broward getting smacked hard


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[Sanibel]

Euro 00z 102 108 hours turned hard right and went up the middle of the state...

[northjaxpro]

Folks at the Hurricane Center are probably starting to really feel worried about this storm.

Dr. Eric Blake tweeted a little while ago that his glance at the latest model runs was going to make sleep difficult tonight. Terrifying stuff. Dr. Knabb too has begun expressing serious concern. The idea of such a massive storm just sitting over and lashing the major metro areas for a LONG time is the stuff of nightmares,

I just posted my similar thoughts on this on the forum a short time ago. This is an extremely dangerous situation unfolding for : us here across the peninsula.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1167329126405103616

[northjaxpro]

Euro 00z 102 108 hours turned hard right and went up the middle of the state...

Yes it did on this run. ÈURO has the north turn occuring just after landfall in Palm Beach County.

[Bocadude85]

Wonder if this trend will stick or adjust south a little more, I don’t like the thought of a landfall in Palm Beach County, best thing to hope for is the North turn before the coast

[northjaxpro]

Wonder if this trend will stick or adjust south a little more, I don’t like the thought of a landfall in Palm Beach County, best thing to hope for is the North turn before the coast

Amen Boca. I am praying for all of us here in the peninsula, especially with potential landfall of Cat 4 Dorian in very heavily populated Palm Beach County. I am mortified just thinking about it!

[sponger]

GFS wanting to bring Tampa into the picture. All 4 major metro areas of the State. What a mess. That turn North should be hard to predict accurately this far out. Seems fairly clear South Florida is going to have a major knocking on its door. Cat 4? Cat 5? Who knows but if it does not turn the damages will be massive. Local evac to a hotel would be a good idea. No one that stayed for Andrew in Homestead did not massively regret it.

[tolakram]

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[USTropics]

00z ECMWF ensemble members: