Tropical Wave heading off Africa (Is INVEST 91L)

[galaxy401]

Now that we are entering the peak of the season, it's time to monitor the storms in the MDR. Here's one of them. There's SAL west of the system but it's not close.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas.

A tropical wave is moving westward from the coast of Africa.
Some development of this system is possible early next week over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Nancy Smar]

GENESIS016, AL, L, , , , , 78, 2019, DB, O, 2019083000, 9999999999, , 016, , , , GENESIS, , AL782019

[ouragans]

Both ECMWF and GFS have been consistent to develop this wave, but generally OTS. Let's see how it behaves in the next 24 hrs

[TallyTracker]

NHC bumped the chances up slightly in the next 5 days for this wave.

213
ABNT20 KNHC 301123
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dorian, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas.

A tropical wave is moving westward from the coast of Africa.
Some development of this system is possible early next week over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[ouragans]

A tropical wave is located about 300 miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of this system is possible early next week over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

1. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[captainbarbossa19]

Both ECMWF and GFS have been consistent to develop this wave, but generally OTS. Let's see how it behaves in the next 24 hrs

As we have seen with Dorian, the models' forecasts can change rather quickly. I would not be surprised if nothing develops since many models failed to detect Dorian until after it was forming. However, I suspect that something will form and will need to be monitored. After all, it is nearly September.

[StruThiO]

A tropical wave is located about 150 miles east-southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Some development of this system is possible
early next week over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic as
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[CrazyC83]

This will probably get no attention because of Dorian, but I think with the probabilities being bumped up it should be tagged as 91L soon.

[CyclonicFury]

This will probably get no attention because of Dorian, but I think with the probabilities being bumped up it should be tagged as 91L soon.

I'd agree. It has a good shot to become Fernand in 72-96 hours. A recurve well east of the Antilles seems most likely at this time if development occurs. The GFS seems unrealistically far north with its development, though.

[hohnywx]

Up to 60% chance within 5 days:

1. A tropical wave located about midway between the coast of Africa
and the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of
showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form next week while the system moves across the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions
of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next few days, and
interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kazmit]

Should be the first storm of September. There also seems to be a wave behind it that models are even more enthusiastic about.

[Buck]

Surprised it's not an Invest yet... but I guess it is pretty early still (and theres enough to focus on with Dorian).

This has potential to be a nice ACE booster though.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located a little more than 100 miles east of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing widespread cloudiness and showers.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development of this disturbance during the next few days and a
tropical depression could form next week while the system moves
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the
next couple of days, and interests on those islands should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
widespread cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development of this disturbance, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of
next week while the system moves northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple of days, and
interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[StruThiO]

12 ECMWF a little bullish

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located just south of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system has become
better organized since yesterday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development during the next several
days. A tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the
week while the system moves generally northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during the next couple
of days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Hurricaneman]

Only a real danger to fish