ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3321 Postby Kazmit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:28 am

Just a few hours ago I thought the satellite appearance was pretty poor for a high-end cat 2. Turns out, all it needed was an eye.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3322 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:28 am

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3323 Postby Dylan » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:28 am

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3324 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:29 am

Yeah I've been thinking of Hugo too. Same NW to SE stretch.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3325 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:29 am

This could be the beginning of RI.
Heavy lightning on the eyewall tower.

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ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3326 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:31 am

The flatness on top of Dorian bespeaks a hard ridge...I think it looks like it is turning early although there could be some -removed- involved...

Too close for comfort and have to act like it is coming here now...

1947 Ft Lauderdale hurricane followed same track, exited over Sanibel and had 120mph gust at lighthouse...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3327 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:33 am

jasons wrote:Yes, the eye clearing is concerning but almost more concerning when I look at the satellite loops is the improved cirrus outflow presentation in all directions now. An ominous sign indeed.



Yep. The visible satellite image of Dorian shows the cirrus outflow in all quadrants is actually a beautiful, but strikingly frightening image, one which is unquestionably signaling an intensifying tropical cyclone.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3328 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:35 am

NDG wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:93kt SFMR unflagged in the southwest quad.


Not enough for upgrade to Cat 3.



Agreed. Appears AF302 found that wind flying through the hot tower firing up on the southwest side. Once that deep convection wraps around to the northeast side, we will begin seeing winds supporting 100kt. Maybe 4 or so more hours.
Last edited by FLpanhandle91 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3329 Postby b0tzy29 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:37 am

That eye is terrifying... bai god. Pressure is going to plummet and winds will follow. Cat 3 at least by tonight.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3330 Postby BLUEBIRDFLA » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:42 am

Wherever Dorian ends up makes landfall, where will the strongest winds be? To the north or south, east of the core? Thanks.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3331 Postby Collenyd » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:42 am

Hello! Can someone post Dorian's current size, please? I am particularly interested to know how many wiles wide. I do understand it may be growing in size as it strengthens. Is there somewhere I can easily get this information on my own? I skimmed back a few pages but didn't see any reference to it.

I would also love to see the cone progression gif too if anyone has that handy. :D

I'm at work biting my nails. Little Ole Seminole County here, about 60 miles from the east coast. Hoping the best for everyone. xo
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3332 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:43 am

Atlantic canes have some weird shape... I remember Matthew in 2016 being heart-shaped at its peak. :lol:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3333 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:44 am

BLUEBIRDFLA wrote:Wherever Dorian ends up makes landfall, where will the strongest winds be? To the north or south, east of the core? Thanks.


The strongest winds will be where the winds are coming onshore (out of the east and northeast) and north of center.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3334 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:47 am

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3335 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:48 am

Wasn't it said a few days ago that a stronger/faster storm was more likely to take a more southern/western route due to ridging influence? It would begin appearing on the right side of the cone, but would end up on the left side. Did any of the models guess at the current pressure at this time and location?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3336 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:49 am

Collenyd wrote:Hello! Can someone post Dorian's current size, please? I am particularly interested to know how many wiles wide. I do understand it may be growing in size as it strengthens. Is there somewhere I can easily get this information on my own? I skimmed back a few pages but didn't see any reference to it.

I would also love to see the cone progression gif too if anyone has that handy. :D

I'm at work biting my nails. Little Ole Seminole County here, about 60 miles from the east coast. Hoping the best for everyone. xo


The National Hurricane Center public advisories have the tropical storm and hurricane force wind radii; currently tropical storm force winds extend 105 miles from the center and hurricane 25 miles.

As for the cone history https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line_and_wind
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3337 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:50 am



The compact size of Dorian will certainly aid in the intensification process. Now that the eye is clearing, it's off to the races until an eye wall replacement cycle occurs. Upwelling is the only possible obstacle for Dorian.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3338 Postby Highteeld » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:50 am

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2019 Time : 142019 UTC
Lat : 24:33:35 N Lon : 69:41:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 977.8mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.9 5.8
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3339 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:50 am


Not necessarily true. EWRC's can cause some short-term weakening on approach.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3340 Postby StPeteMike » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:51 am

Almost in an identical position as the Labor Day Hurricane. Crazy how Dorian’s projected track isn’t that far different to that one.
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