ATL: DORIAN - Models

[lsuhurricane]

not anyone model.. we take a look at them all.. see the average... consensus.. etc.

I get it but does the Icon have some kind of great track record I'm not aware of? Not sarcastic just a legit question

No it does not. The NHC does not use the ICON for track guidance. It's an intensity guidance model.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Again, one last time. The ICON referred to by the NHC is an intensity model based off tropical models.

The ICON on Tidbits is the German Global Model.

[StPeteMike]

Ridge still seems to be relatively strong while the storm is about to pummel Miami there.

[caneman]

ICON right into Miami...

Talk about consistency..ICON and UKMET have been the most consistent

Now to be fair they could be consistently wrong but the UKMET has been making a strong run lately to supplant the euro

[USTropics]

The UKMET continues to perform well at 96 hours:


In fact, the track is nearly aligned with the official NHC track through 3 days, with a noticeable SW dip being the only difference through 120 hours:

[AxaltaRacing24]

I dont really understand why so many are put so much faith in the ICON. It seems to me the UKMET has been the most reliable inside of 96 hours. Am I wrong?

The ICON deserves at least some respect. It’s been very consistent for days and was in the UK camp before almost all other globals. Not a bad tool to help form a consensus so far for Dorian.

With its consistency... If it verifies it will gain a lot of respect.

I personally hope that doesn’t verify. Doomsday scenario for miami-dade.

[caneman]

I get it but does the Icon have some kind of great track record I'm not aware of? Not sarcastic just a legit question

No it does not. The NHC does not use the ICON for track guidance. It's an intensity guidance model.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Again, one last time. The ICON referred to by the NHC is an intensity model based off tropical models.

The ICON on Tidbits is the German Global Model.

Settle down there sunshine. Since its done well with this system this far, it must still be considered

[Audrey2Katrina]

12Z icon..Looks like its coming for SFL @ 69hrs with wsw dip

Didn’t Katrina do something very similar? Or was the dip after it went into the Gulf?

Edit: it was over SFL

.
Katrina did something VERY similar, however Katrina never made Fla landfall as a major, but a Cat 1... I wish no evil to anyone from this thing, but I shudder to think what it could become if it got into the warm waters of that Gulf Loop--which is what blew Katrina into a buzz-saw.

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3012&fh=90

1020mb high in the SE as it's hitting Miami. Looks like a situation where it could get close to 83/84W on this run unless it cuts up Florida or just along the coast.

[KWT]

Yep Icon is a global model. We use it here in the UK. Good model with decent resolution. Do not dismiss it, often close to the ECM in terms of ideas.

[caneman]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2019083012&fh=90

1020mb high in the SE as it's hitting Miami. Looks like a situation where it could get close to 83/84W on this run unless it cuts up Florida or just along the coast.

Dont tell me that crap Steve, we dont need IRMA 2 on the west coast.

[chris_fit]

[PandaCitrus]

Can anyone tell me what the synoptics are with UKMET and ICON that are seeing this southwest motion and GFS/Euro and other models are not? This southwest motion will ultimately decide whether Dade and Broward receive a direct hit or Palm Beach/Treasure Coast.

This reminds me of Hurricane Andrew when initially Broward and County Line were at risk and then the southwest drift occured.

[Steve]

Can anyone tell me what the synoptics are with UKMET and ICON that are seeing this southwest motion and GFS/Euro and other models are not? This southwest motion will ultimately decide whether Dade and Broward receive a direct hit or Palm Beach/Treasure Coast.

This reminds me of Hurricane Andrew when initially Broward and County Line were at risk and then the southwest drift occured.

Run them at MSLP, 850/700 and 500 and you can see everything on the map.

[chris_fit]

GFS Running

[ExBailbonds]

The ICON deserves at least some respect. It’s been very consistent for days and was in the UK camp before almost all other globals. Not a bad tool to help form a consensus so far for Dorian.

With its consistency... If it verifies it will gain a lot of respect.

I personally hope that doesn’t verify. Doomsday scenario for miami-dade.

Trust me i am hoping it does not verify as i am in Homestead and that track has bad memories for me. However i am as ready as i can be. I am just saying that if it does verify that it will be remembered for it.

[Patrick99]

I don't like that loop. Basically showing the same track as Katrina 1.0, but with a more established storm obviously.

[chris_fit]

crapolla for me

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2019083012&fh=90

1020mb high in the SE as it's hitting Miami. Looks like a situation where it could get close to 83/84W on this run unless it cuts up Florida or just along the coast.

Dont tell me that crap Steve, we dont need IRMA 2 on the west coast.

Basically it keeps the eye intact and is along the coast around Sarasota and Siesta Key at 120 (so valid 7am Wednesday)

[Kat5]

Does the WRF model still exist? Would love to see its predicted radar composite.

[USTropics]

Can anyone tell me what the synoptics are with UKMET and ICON that are seeing this southwest motion and GFS/Euro and other models are not? This southwest motion will ultimately decide whether Dade and Broward receive a direct hit or Palm Beach/Treasure Coast.

This reminds me of Hurricane Andrew when initially Broward and County Line were at risk and then the southwest drift occured.

Given no major steering currents, we have to look higher in the atmosphere (200mb) for potential subtleties. Using the 06z GFS, you see this very subtle 200mb ridge over northern Florida that could induce some WSW motion: