ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
I think there is a good chance of the landfall shifting north again the next day or so.
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- jasons2k
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
NDG wrote:jasons wrote:NDG wrote:So when was the last time Palm Beach County was hit directly by a Major Hurricane? With all the multi million dollar homes there this will be one of the costliest hurricanes in history, if it was to make landfall there.
Residential real estate is peanuts compared to commercial real estate. While a hit in PBI would indeed be a costly, terrible thing, it would be nothing like a hit further south in Dade.
When was the last time you drove along A-1A in Palm Beach County? You will be surprised. Plus commercial real state have higher hurricane codes than some of these huge mansions on the beach.
It’s still relative. A hit into Galveston Bay would be more costly than a hit in South Florida because of all the commercial and industrial properties. You could buy a nice chunk of Palm Beach for the price of a single refinery.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
norva13x wrote:I think there is a good chance of the landfall shifting north again the next day or so.
Maybe, but there's a good chance of it shifting south as well.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
norva13x wrote:I think there is a good chance of the landfall shifting north again the next day or so.
You wouldn't happen to be up the coast, huh?
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- Jevo
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
norva13x wrote:I think there is a good chance of the landfall shifting north again the next day or so.
Is it a gut feeling ya got going on there?

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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Steve wrote:norva13x wrote:I think there is a good chance of the landfall shifting north again the next day or so.
You wouldn't happen to be up the coast, huh?
I'm a ways inland. I don't want it near me lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
The really terrible thing is a forecast for prolonged major hurricane conditions in the Vero Beach-WPB area from monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon...with the western eyewall likely to come in overnight, which I absolutely hate these storms coming in full force at night. Your mind goes all over the place hearing things smash outside against the walls with limbs cracking. Its horrible and I highly recommend someone in an evacuation zone to get out before the storm. Ask anyone who stayed during a major and they almost all say never again.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Dorian is starting to look really good. Decent CDO to keep the dry air out. Shear pretty low. And when that large eye starts to contract you could get some decent wind speeds.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Needless to say, Northeast Florida will get serious impacts from extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian this Labor day Weekend
The latest from the NHC and after seeing the recent guidance consensus, Hurricane conditions are anticipated, major implications with Storm Surge, and Torrential flooding and tornadoes will be HUGE concerns across the entire area.
I will do my best to keep everyone abreasted as to what is happening up here in the Jacksonville metro area, and the conditions. I know the mods and others will probably have threads available about posting on conditions throughout the state.
Godspeed everyone!!! Pray for us all here and all throughout the state of Florida and surrounding areas this Labor Day weekend into next week as well.
The latest from the NHC and after seeing the recent guidance consensus, Hurricane conditions are anticipated, major implications with Storm Surge, and Torrential flooding and tornadoes will be HUGE concerns across the entire area.
I will do my best to keep everyone abreasted as to what is happening up here in the Jacksonville metro area, and the conditions. I know the mods and others will probably have threads available about posting on conditions throughout the state.
Godspeed everyone!!! Pray for us all here and all throughout the state of Florida and surrounding areas this Labor Day weekend into next week as well.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
northjaxpro wrote:Needless to say, Northeast Florida will get serious impacts from extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian this Labor day Weekend
The latest from the NHC and after seeing the recent guidance consensus, Hurricane conditions are anticipated, major implications with Storm Surge, and Torrential flooding and tornadoes will be HUGE concerns across the entire area.
I will do my best to keep everyone as to what is happening up here in the Jacksonville metro area, and the conditions. I know the mods and others will probably have threads available about posting on conditions throughout the state.
Godspeed everyone!!! Pray for us all here and all throughout the state of Florida and surrounding areas this Labor Day weekend into next week as well.
You have our prayers and blessings flowing your way from Houston. I, for one, would not want to be in any part of Florida this Labor Day weekend.
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Houston, Texas. Allison '01, Rita '05, Dolly '08, Ike '08, Issac '12, Harvey '17
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
that should be just enough for an upgrade..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Perhaps someone with much more intelligence than i, can explain to me why Euro and GFS take it very much inland... and west and then north/west over middle state/tampa and then curve it up to jacksonville/georgia... But NHC center points... like today at 11am have it east of orlando. What model are they using to get this data? They say in discussion that they use certain models, but these do not include all the ones taking it west and over florida?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
I just came across this article about Lake Okeechobee's Herbert Hoover Dike. Is the situation still the same as it was in 2013, when this was published?
http://www.hurricaneanalytics.com/2013/02/three_levee_fact/
Then I found this: https://www.saj.usace.army.mil/Missions/Civil-Works/Lake-Okeechobee/Herbert-Hoover-Dike/
What's the actual status of the Lake O levees today?
http://www.hurricaneanalytics.com/2013/02/three_levee_fact/
Then I found this: https://www.saj.usace.army.mil/Missions/Civil-Works/Lake-Okeechobee/Herbert-Hoover-Dike/
What's the actual status of the Lake O levees today?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
South Florida weather has at least cleared out a bit the last couple hours, so people can at least try to get things done. From early evening yesterday to just a couple hours ago, we were getting intense lightning and rain from numerous passing showers in some crazy moisture feed. Not sure I'd ever seen anything like it, to have storms just keep going and going and going until the next morning.
Unfortunately, this is probably the exact air Dorian is going to be feeding from soon, if it isn't already.
Unfortunately, this is probably the exact air Dorian is going to be feeding from soon, if it isn't already.
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- ricka47
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
ronjon wrote:The really terrible thing is a forecast for prolonged major hurricane conditions in the Vero Beach-WPB area from monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon...with the western eyewall likely to come in overnight, which I absolutely hate these storms coming in full force at night. Your mind goes all over the place hearing things smash outside against the walls with limbs cracking. Its horrible and I highly recommend someone in an evacuation zone to get out before the storm. Ask anyone who stayed during a major and they almost all say never again.
This is very true. We lived in SFL during Andrew and heard stories about people hunkering down in a bathroom all night and listening to their house get destroyed around them. When they came out at dawn, all that was left was the room they were in - still gives me goosebumps!
We went down to Homestead with our church group to help and the devastation was like what you see after a city is destroyed by bombs during a war. That was our first experience with a hurricane after living in the Midwest all of our lives. But, it taught us never to say, "it won't be that bad!"
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- StPeteMike
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
will759227 wrote:Perhaps someone with much more intelligence than i, can explain to me why Euro and GFS take it very much inland... and west and then north/west over middle state/tampa and then curve it up to jacksonville/georgia... But NHC center points... like today at 11am have it east of orlando. What model are they using to get this data? They say in discussion that they use certain models, but these do not include all the ones taking it west and over florida?
Still believe it’s a consensus of all the models going on. They could also be holding off any further positioning of the track until later tonight or tomorrow morning, when HOPEFULLY we have a better agreement on impact area and where it goes from there.
Personally, I think being consistent with keeping the NHC track where it is now in the short term is the best option. If people in the areas that will likely get Hurricane watches and warnings see the NHC move the track back and forth, they might blow off evacuating thinking “well, it might not even get to us”.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
ricka47 wrote:ronjon wrote:The really terrible thing is a forecast for prolonged major hurricane conditions in the Vero Beach-WPB area from monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon...with the western eyewall likely to come in overnight, which I absolutely hate these storms coming in full force at night. Your mind goes all over the place hearing things smash outside against the walls with limbs cracking. Its horrible and I highly recommend someone in an evacuation zone to get out before the storm. Ask anyone who stayed during a major and they almost all say never again.
This is very true. We lived in SFL during Andrew and heard stories about people hunkering down in a bathroom all night and listening to their house get destroyed around them. When they came out at dawn, all that was left was the room they were in - still gives me goosebumps!
We went down to Homestead with our church group to help and the devastation was like what you see after a city is destroyed by bombs during a war. That was our first experience with a hurricane after living in the Midwest all of our lives. But, it taught us never to say, "it won't be that bad!"
This exact thing happened to our family when we lived through Andrew on Homestead AFB. Spent the storm in our bathroom. I was 6 years old. The bathroom was the only room left with a roof. We then moved to Patrick AFB and I still live in Melbourne to this day. Waiting to see what dorian will do
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
StPeteMike wrote:will759227 wrote:Perhaps someone with much more intelligence than i, can explain to me why Euro and GFS take it very much inland... and west and then north/west over middle state/tampa and then curve it up to jacksonville/georgia... But NHC center points... like today at 11am have it east of orlando. What model are they using to get this data? They say in discussion that they use certain models, but these do not include all the ones taking it west and over florida?
Still believe it’s a consensus of all the models going on. They could also be holding off any further positioning of the track until later tonight or tomorrow morning, when HOPEFULLY we have a better agreement on impact area and where it goes from there.
Personally, I think being consistent with keeping the NHC track where it is now in the short term is the best option. If people in the areas that will likely get Hurricane watches and warnings see the NHC move the track back and forth, they might blow off evacuating thinking “well, it might not even get to us”.
A very dangerous way to look at things, what you stated in your last sentence, but here in Southeast Texas, I have seen that same frame of mind and people loose their lives. Two people I knew personally are no longer with us. They had that same mind set you speak of.
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Houston, Texas. Allison '01, Rita '05, Dolly '08, Ike '08, Issac '12, Harvey '17
Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
Things will be a lot worse on the western side of the state if Dorian makes it a tad farther west before turning more northward. As of now we look significantly less bad compared to east and interior...but we're not playing with any comforting margin and baby steps westward over a handful of advisories could make things a good bit worse. Wind probs are already very high, having escalated again after briefly dropping a touch last night. As a Gulfer, I'm hoping that Dorian's fear of longitudinal gains continues. At the same time...we can all hope that Dorian manages to turn north before the east coast...recognizing that is unlikely...when the forecast is really bad there are ways and time for something better (think cat 5 Irma into Miami fears). All the best to our east coast and interior folks that are really in the danger zone..
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion
StPeteMike wrote:will759227 wrote:Perhaps someone with much more intelligence than i, can explain to me why Euro and GFS take it very much inland... and west and then north/west over middle state/tampa and then curve it up to jacksonville/georgia... But NHC center points... like today at 11am have it east of orlando. What model are they using to get this data? They say in discussion that they use certain models, but these do not include all the ones taking it west and over florida?
Still believe it’s a consensus of all the models going on. They could also be holding off any further positioning of the track until later tonight or tomorrow morning, when HOPEFULLY we have a better agreement on impact area and where it goes from there.
Personally, I think being consistent with keeping the NHC track where it is now in the short term is the best option. If people in the areas that will likely get Hurricane watches and warnings see the NHC move the track back and forth, they might blow off evacuating thinking “well, it might not even get to us”.
These next few model runs will be interesting to see if GFS and euro go back east.
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