ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Steve]

GFS is now running and out to 36 hours. CMC then HWRF/HMON should be after that heading into the ECMWF.

[chris_fit]

GFS Trending N

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Could any mets lurking around here potentially give us some numbers on how the ICON has generally performed through day 3-5? I've always been warned not to use it for TC guidance.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS slightly north and faster through 36 hours.

[will759227]

12Z GFS slightly north and faster through 36 hours.

Perhaps someone at the NHC got to the data importers and said... follow our path, stop that west coast stuff.

[catskillfire51]

Could any mets lurking around here potentially give us some numbers on how the ICON has generally performed through day 3-5? I've always been warned not to use it for TC guidance.

Theres a graph from UAlbany with those details on one of the previous pages

[SFLcane]

12z GFS Way north hopefully a trend...

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS a decent bit north at 48 hours:

[chris_fit]

Have a feeling GFS landfall gonna be way north - Cape area

[AutoPenalti]

GFS with weaker ridging.

[catskillfire51]

Still North of previous run at 54hrs but still seems due west in movement

[Steve]

ICON out to 156 - comes into the Gulf and cuts back into Florida for US Landfall #2 Horseshoe Beach/Cedar Key area and looks like it will head NE toward Jacksonville area.

[StPeteMike]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2019083012&fh=90

1020mb high in the SE as it's hitting Miami. Looks like a situation where it could get close to 83/84W on this run unless it cuts up Florida or just along the coast.

Dont tell me that crap Steve, we dont need IRMA 2 on the west coast.

Basically it keeps the eye intact and is along the coast around Sarasota and Siesta Key at 120 (so valid 7am Wednesday)

Yep, which has been my biggest fear for the past couple days. And, no it’s not “-removed-”, but more of the fact that many have been hoping for the ridge to break or a trough to come through and neither seem to be happening any time soon.

[SFLcane]

Yep no ridge in place really this could still miss Florida. Have a feeling we will be looking at entirely different outlook tomorrow.

[Jevo]

Looks to flatten out at 54... Let's see if it feels that WSW bump again before resuming

[AutoPenalti]

Yep no ridge in place really this could still miss Florida. Have a feeling we will be looking at entirely different outlook tomorrow.

It's still there...it's just a bit weaker...

[kevin]

ICON 12z. The turn North happens a bit later in the track.

[gatorcane]

Both old and new GFS have shifted north

[tolakram]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS almost identical to the 00z ECMWF. Should be a similar path.