ATL: DORIAN - Models

[AutoPenalti]

The 250mb ridge is squashed. This should force it WSW.

[AtlanticWind]

GFS not very consistent with Dorian, up at Jacksonville down to palm beach now north again

[gatorcane]

Looks like GFS is headed toward Central Florida

[chris_fit]

Stairstepping WNW

[NDG]

12z GFS almost identical to the 00z ECMWF. Should be a similar path.

But further north, looks to be heading towards Vero Beach.

[AtlanticWind]

The 250mb ridge is squashed. This should force it WSW.

Ridge looks weaker this run to me

[USTropics]

Weak ridging is there, look at the 200mb levels:

[tolakram]

Upper level ridge looks flat, let's see if it goes north.

[catskillfire51]

Another jog due west at 72hrs

[SFLcane]

Looks like GFS is headed toward Central Florida

https://i.postimg.cc/nrCjbpK9/gfs-mslpa-Norm-watl-12.png

Yep me likes hopefully it is a start of a trend.

[jlauderdal]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2019083012&fh=90

1020mb high in the SE as it's hitting Miami. Looks like a situation where it could get close to 83/84W on this run unless it cuts up Florida or just along the coast.

Dont tell me that crap Steve, we dont need IRMA 2 on the west coast.

That 1020 high appearing on the scene is not good news for the west coast of florida

[Jevo]

Ahhh great... so now we have the EURO and GFS switching spots as the outlier.... Comeon boys we had consensus 12 hours ago.. I'm going to give the GFS another run before putting any stock in this.. It fizzled a ridge it's been showing for the last 2 days.. The operational run should give us a better idea.

[AutoPenalti]

Ridge moves out... Dorian heading WNW.

[CronkPSU]

Looks like GFS is headed toward Central Florida

https://i.postimg.cc/nrCjbpK9/gfs-mslpa-Norm-watl-12.png

Yep me likes hopefully it is a start of a trend.

I mean...I guess if you are not from Central Florida you can want it to not be a trend...

[beachman80]

Seems to me the GFS straightens out due west at 72 hours. Surprised it takes it a little north with a strong ridge in place from 24-66 hours.

[Steve]

So ICON is offshore Jax Beach at 165 (valid next Friday at 4am) and moving NE-ish with a ridge now centered around the NY/NH border. Could it kick back in again as a shortcut track storm or will it race off to sea? I can't tell, and the model ends at 180 with it looking like a Cat 2/3 (970mb) at 31.69N, 78.33W or a bit east of the GA/'SC border at the coast and almost due south of the SC/NC border.

[catskillfire51]

Still due west at 78hrs but north at 84?

[gatorcane]

GFS 84 hours turning north at the last minute????

[beachman80]

Wow, did the GFS just do a north jump at 84 hours? Could it miss Florida altogether?

[jfk08c]

Looks like GFS is headed toward Central Florida

https://i.postimg.cc/nrCjbpK9/gfs-mslpa-Norm-watl-12.png

Yep me likes hopefully it is a start of a trend.

I mean...I guess if you are not from Central Florida you can want it to not be a trend...

Polk County here. I'll gladly take the hit over my South Florida bros. Then again, i'm not on the coast and i'm sure people in Vero Beach and the like would disagree