ATL: DORIAN - Models

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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3641 Postby AtlanticWind » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:54 am

beachman80 wrote:Wow, did the GFS just do a north jump at 84 hours? Could it miss Florida altogether?

Yeah this run is a shocker
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3642 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:54 am

AtlanticWind wrote:GFS not very consistent with Dorian, up at Jacksonville down to palm beach now north again


It shouldn't be too surprising, GFS ensembles are still anywhere between Boca Raton to Cape Canaveral but not as widespread as they were yesterday.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3643 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:55 am

The farther north GFS deviates from ECMWF in ridging situations, the more stock I put in ECMWF. Especially when UKMET is in agreement
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3644 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:55 am

Escape window is closing though....
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3645 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:55 am

yeah gfs will miss florida it looks like a maybe but prob not
Last edited by stormlover2013 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3646 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:55 am

beachman80 wrote:Seems to me the GFS straightens out due west at 72 hours. Surprised it takes it a little north with a strong ridge in place from 24-66 hours.


It nudges almost due north at the coast between model plots 78 and 84h. While you can certainly understand it based on the angle of the dangle of Florida into the Ocean, that's a weird move where it doesn't even stop first, just goes north from almost due west. Might be a stall or something it's not able to depict or resolve.

Edit never mind, it's a stair-step move because the next plot is due west of the 84H. As we've been saying for a week, that's an odd place for a hit from the east.
Last edited by Steve on Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3647 Postby mcheer23 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:55 am

AtlanticWind wrote:
beachman80 wrote:Wow, did the GFS just do a north jump at 84 hours? Could it miss Florida altogether?

Yeah this run is a shocker



GFS just trolled everyone. Lol.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3648 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:55 am

AtlanticWind wrote:
beachman80 wrote:Wow, did the GFS just do a north jump at 84 hours? Could it miss Florida altogether?

Yeah this run is a shocker


Stair stepping track towards the WNW.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3649 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:56 am

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3650 Postby Dylan » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:56 am

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3651 Postby beachman80 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:56 am

I personally think it's just wobbling and floating around. It makes sense. When storms all but stall, they just tend to drift and float and can go any direction. Unfortunately, where they drift is just guesses.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3652 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:56 am

Anyone have the 12Z UKMET?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3653 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:56 am

A very strong storm is not going to be steered by the 500mb ridge as far as I understand it, which is why I use the ugly plot with bad colors because it shows low level vorticity, 500mb heights, and 200mb wind flow.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3654 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:57 am

GFS kills off the ridge. Moving NW?
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3655 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:57 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:The farther north GFS deviates from ECMWF in ridging situations, the more stock I put in ECMWF. Especially when UKMET is in agreement
This is so typical of the gfs with weak run to run consistency..it may be on to something but as usual the euro is the leader..lets see what the euro says
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3656 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:57 am

Sooooo anyone seen a UKMET around this place? :lol:
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3657 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:58 am

beachman80 wrote:Wow, did the GFS just do a north jump at 84 hours? Could it miss Florida altogether?


Not even close, slams Cape Canaveral.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3658 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:58 am

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3659 Postby kevin » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:58 am

GFS 12z at 96 hours, 954 mbar. Similar landfall intensity to 06z, but further North.

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Last edited by kevin on Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:01 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3660 Postby USTropics » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:59 am

There's a high pressure area nudging Dorian west, but at the same time a decaying high pressure area is backing off towards the GOM, preventing it from moving very quickly:

Image
Last edited by USTropics on Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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