ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z GFS looks more-or-less inline with the current NHC track, just slightly further north on the impact point.

[AJC3]

A very strong storm is not going to be steered by the 500mb ridge as far as I understand it, which is why I use the ugly plot with bad colors because it shows low level vorticity, 500mb heights, and 200mb wind flow.

500MB is just a simple proxy for deep layer steering. If you HAD to pick one level, most of the time this would be it. If you have access to model GRIB sets, a great thing to do would be to construct mean layer streamline model forecast fields using the layers that CIMSS uses for its TC steering winds analyses.

[KWT]

Yeah the north motion was just a jog. Think the GFS has not been at all consistent and so I think at the moment it's low on the list of models to trust.

Still makes landfall hard on the central Florida.

[supercane4867]

Center directly went over the Cape on 12z GFS

[NDG]

This is a worst case scenario track for Orlando so far by 12z GFS.

[Steve]

GFS is moving WNW toward Titusville, Melbourne, Palm Bay. I've never seen that track before and it landfalls on Cape Canaveral between 102 and 108 hours so valid Tuesday at 2pm.

I'd bet any amount of money it doesn't go down like this.

[tolakram]

[AxaltaRacing24]

Even after all that ridge breaking, it still hit the cape this run. Folks, Dorian has nowhere to go.

[South Texas Storms]

12z UKMET with a big northeast shift.

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 69.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.08.2019 24.2N 69.3W MODERATE
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.2N 71.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2019 25.6N 72.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 25.7N 74.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.1N 75.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.3N 76.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.4N 77.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.4N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 26.6N 79.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 27.8N 80.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.2N 81.6W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 30.8N 81.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 32.4N 79.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

[Jevo]

This just goes to show how confidence can erode in a popular model when it starts to windshield wiper. Then you have other models out there that stick to their solution for almost 5 days and after all is said and done people are surprised that it was correct the entire time while everyone swooned over the "big 2"

[NDG]

Center directly went over the Cape on 12z GFS

Satellite Beach/Cocoa Beach to be exact.

[tolakram]

[beachman80]

GFS follows the Euro, takes this north after landfall into Jacksonville.

[tgenius]

I get that the ICON isn't the most trusted model, etc, but what is concerning is run after run after run its basically been in the same end location. Are the upper level patterns depicted in the ICON run even realistic to consider it? I ask also because with Katrina ONLY GFDL (NAVGEM) sniffed out the SW dip arriving at the coast?

[NDG]

12z UKMET with a big northeast shift.

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 69.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.08.2019 24.2N 69.3W MODERATE
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.2N 71.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2019 25.6N 72.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 25.7N 74.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.1N 75.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.3N 76.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.4N 77.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.4N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 26.6N 79.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 27.8N 80.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.2N 81.6W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 30.8N 81.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 32.4N 79.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

Wow, big shift to the right!!!

[Steve]

GFS is staying along the eastern part of the state - would be bad for Daytona/St. Augustine/Jacksonville as it never gets much inland and still looks like a 2 headed back toward the sea near Jacksonville (FL/GA border). It's got a low to the north which is in Quebec moving east, so if that goes out, it could hook back west GA/SC/NC for sure in the next several plots.

[catskillfire51]

Gfs has landfall at melbourne at 961mb at 101hrs

[rwfromkansas]

This happens so often with these storms. It's why I am not really watching it closely until tomorrow. The track will likely still change, particularly in situations like this where you are waiting for a turn.

[chris_fit]

UK landfall around Sebastian - Then takes it up NNW

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Overall, we're finally starting to see a much better consensus on the models today: Landfall somewhere near/south of Cape Canaveral, turn towards the north over Orlando. Big wind and rainfall threat over the entirety of Central Florida, North Florida, GA/SC/NC. NHC track looks pretty likely, IMO.