ATL: DORIAN - Models

[PandaCitrus]

Yes, metro Orlando would look like Panama City did getting raked with Cat 3+ winds inland where historically building codes are TERRIBLE. There's probably a lot more damage in this track than in a Palm Beach County direct hit because the building codes are 175 MPH there. In Orlando, especially stuff the old construction won't withstand those winds.

This is a worst case scenario track for Orlando so far by 12z GFS.

[USTropics]

UKMET plots:

[norva13x]

Overall, we're finally starting to see a much better consensus on the models today: Landfall somewhere near/south of Cape Canaveral, turn towards the north over Orlando. Big wind and rainfall threat over the entirety of Central Florida, North Florida, GA/SC/NC.

We're seeing a different consensus every day lol. I did think the track would go north a bit but that can also windshield wipe right back. Be interesting to see what they say at 2pm.

[gatorcane]

Encouraging model trends so far for South Florida. Just need the Euro to shift as well.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Overall, we're finally starting to see a much better consensus on the models today: Landfall somewhere near/south of Cape Canaveral, turn towards the north over Orlando. Big wind and rainfall threat over the entirety of Central Florida, North Florida, GA/SC/NC. NHC track looks pretty likely, IMO.

Nothing’s set in stone yet. The windshield wiping will continue.

[Kat5]

Might be a start to a northern trend, as we speak. Not surprised at all especially with how the ensembles means have been lately. Jupiter beach and north seems like a prime destination for landfall.

[beachman80]

Feeling much safer here in Tampa after seeing that UK and GFS. Looks like we may not even get raid. But prayers for those on the other coast.

[SFLcane]

Were is the UKMET landfall???

[KWT]

Ukmo is very similar to 12z GFS but still a strong landfall, the coast gets hit by the eyewall for a long time.

[Steve]

Still slightly inland at 126 near Callahan/St. Mary's River

[Ubuntwo]

Overall, we're finally starting to see a much better consensus on the models today: Landfall somewhere near/south of Cape Canaveral, turn towards the north over Orlando. Big wind and rainfall threat over the entirety of Central Florida, North Florida, GA/SC/NC. NHC track looks pretty likely, IMO.

This consensus is based on just one model cycle. Just a couple cycles ago most models were tracking towards west palm. Especially with this sort of setup sudden shifts can happen just hours away from landfall.

[Jevo]

Overall, we're finally starting to see a much better consensus on the models today: Landfall somewhere near/south of Cape Canaveral, turn towards the north over Orlando. Big wind and rainfall threat over the entirety of Central Florida, North Florida, GA/SC/NC. NHC track looks pretty likely, IMO.

I wouldn't necessarily say consensus.. everything was pretty much dead on WPBish 6 hours ago.. Now the GFS/UKMET nudge North while we wait for a EURO and in between the ICON stays in SFL. Right now I would say consensus is the one this we are all wishing for and don't have.

[chris_fit]

Just a reminder of how quickly things can (and still will) change - Here is Irma's forecast 2.5 days from Landfall.... We all know what happened. We are still over 3 days out here, at least, with Dorian. Also add Matthew to this list.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Overall, we're finally starting to see a much better consensus on the models today: Landfall somewhere near/south of Cape Canaveral, turn towards the north over Orlando. Big wind and rainfall threat over the entirety of Central Florida, North Florida, GA/SC/NC. NHC track looks pretty likely, IMO.

Nothing’s set in stone yet. The windshield wiping will continue.

I never said it was set in stone? I just said we're finally seeing a consensus.

[Steve]

GFS 138 over Savannah.
GFS 144 almost to the coast again at the GA/SC border about to either run the SC coast or get back into the ocean.
GFS 150 offshore just off the Southeast SC Coast

NC next?

[SouthDadeFish]

I think, if anything, these shifts in the models continue to highlight the uncertainty in the forecast. Don't read too much into one shift. This could be the start of a trend or it could be the windshield-wiper effect manifesting itself in weak steering currents. Ensembles are useful in cases like this. Everyone needs to remain vigilant.

[AutoPenalti]

There’s no consensus. 6hrs ago it was at WPB.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Overall, we're finally starting to see a much better consensus on the models today: Landfall somewhere near/south of Cape Canaveral, turn towards the north over Orlando. Big wind and rainfall threat over the entirety of Central Florida, North Florida, GA/SC/NC. NHC track looks pretty likely, IMO.

Nothing’s set in stone yet. The windshield wiping will continue.

I never said it was set in stone? I just said we're finally seeing a consensus.

I know what you said, but we also saw a consensus last night too. It’ll continue to change.

[KWT]

Worth remembering that most models tend to be too far right with systems that bend westwards, though I feel like the models broadly have the right idea and just playing around with details now.

[tgenius]

I think, if anything, these shifts in the models continue to highlight the uncertainty in the forecast. Don't read too much into one shift. This could be the start of a trend or it could be the windshield-wiper effect manifesting itself in weak steering currents. Ensembles are useful in cases like this. Everyone needs to remain vigilant.

How much credibility do you give to ICON? It's been consistent run after run?