ATL: DORIAN - Models

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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3701 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:15 am

chris_fit wrote:Just a reminder of how quickly things can (and still will) change - Here is Irma's forecast 2.5 days from Landfall.... We all know what happened. We are still over 3 days out here, at least, with Dorian. Also add Matthew to this list.

https://i.imgur.com/f9WVvLW.png

Matthew went east of forecast, Irma went west, pick a side already Dorian! :x
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3702 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:15 am

KWT wrote:Worth remembering that most models tend to be too far right with systems that bend westwards, though I feel like the models broadly have the right idea and just playing around with details now.


Hmm...maybe but if the euro shifts then it could very well be a trend. Either way matthew 2.0 is still very much on the table.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3703 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:16 am

12z GFS now showing a northern trend...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3704 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:17 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
chris_fit wrote:Just a reminder of how quickly things can (and still will) change - Here is Irma's forecast 2.5 days from Landfall.... We all know what happened. We are still over 3 days out here, at least, with Dorian. Also add Matthew to this list.

https://i.imgur.com/f9WVvLW.png

Matthew went east of forecast, Irma went west, pick a side already Dorian! :x

Matthew wasn’t even in the cone of Florida until 3 days out. That’s what he means. The model spread also wasn’t touching us just 70 hours out.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3705 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:17 am

Very important to see what the 12z GFS ensembles will show to see if they started northward trend or they are the same as the earlier 06z run which the 12z GFS is within them.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3706 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:17 am

GFS Legacy is about the same as GFS. It would be a first time track for a major. Could it happen? Perhaps. Will it happen? ?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3707 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:19 am

GFS at between plots 168-174 moves inland into Southern NC for the 2nd landfall at probably Cat 1 (possibly 2).
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3708 Postby Jevo » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:19 am

Frank2 wrote:12z GFS now showing a northern trend...


I would say a northern run.. A trend will be if it sticks to it this evening. This is the fun part
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3709 Postby pgoss11 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:20 am

NDG wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:12z UKMET with a big northeast shift.

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 69.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.08.2019 24.2N 69.3W MODERATE
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.2N 71.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2019 25.6N 72.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 25.7N 74.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.1N 75.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.3N 76.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.4N 77.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.4N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 26.6N 79.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 27.8N 80.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.2N 81.6W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 30.8N 81.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 32.4N 79.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


Wow, big shift to the right!!!


Holy cow! Didn’t see that coming. So the 12z GFS and Ukmet throwing a curveball!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3710 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:21 am

Interesting that the ICON is still showing a S FL landfall, not folding.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3711 Postby La Sirena » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:24 am

pgoss11 wrote:
NDG wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:12z UKMET with a big northeast shift.

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 69.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.08.2019 24.2N 69.3W MODERATE
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.2N 71.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2019 25.6N 72.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 25.7N 74.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.1N 75.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.3N 76.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.4N 77.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.4N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 26.6N 79.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 27.8N 80.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.2N 81.6W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 30.8N 81.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 32.4N 79.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


Wow, big shift to the right!!!


Holy cow! Didn’t see that coming. So the 12z GFS and Ukmet throwing a curveball!

I’m gobstopped at such a huge swing from the UKMet! It’s been so consistent on it’s track. Big swing!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3712 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:26 am

People love the UKMET, and it has had some great success the last couple of years. But it has been prone to extreme left and right swings (don't see this as one of them).

CMC is between Icon and GFS and moving WWNW toward landfall a little south of the GFS. It's pretty fast as well.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3012&fh=66
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3713 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:26 am

UKMET after being consistent, decided to move north.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3714 Postby jdjaguar » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:27 am

pgoss11 wrote:
NDG wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:12z UKMET with a big northeast shift.

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 69.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.08.2019 24.2N 69.3W MODERATE
00UTC 31.08.2019 25.2N 71.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2019 25.6N 72.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2019 25.7N 74.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.1N 75.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.3N 76.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.4N 77.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.4N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 26.6N 79.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 27.8N 80.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.2N 81.6W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 30.8N 81.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 32.4N 79.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


Wow, big shift to the right!!!


Holy cow! Didn’t see that coming. So the 12z GFS and Ukmet throwing a curveball!


whats the difference between "strong" and "intense". This run puts Dorian directly over my house Wed night.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3715 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:27 am

The UKMO shift towards the GFS and ECM is pretty significant I feel.

However the models tend to erode ridging too rapidly in such setups and also take too long bending west.

So I feel the trend is right but may get further west and also be a little south before it bends northwards.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3716 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:28 am

Image

12z NAM
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3717 Postby beachman80 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:31 am

The big shock so far is the UKMET. That is a monster change. Like a 300-500 mile shift east. That’s unreal.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3718 Postby Wx_Warrior » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:32 am

Steve wrote:People love the UKMET, and it has had some great success the last couple of years. But it has been prone to extreme left and right swings (don't see this as one of them).

CMC is between Icon and GFS and moving WWNW toward landfall a little south of the GFS. It's pretty fast as well.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3012&fh=66


UKMet was complete garbage with Barry
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3719 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:35 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:
Steve wrote:People love the UKMET, and it has had some great success the last couple of years. But it has been prone to extreme left and right swings (don't see this as one of them).

CMC is between Icon and GFS and moving WWNW toward landfall a little south of the GFS. It's pretty fast as well.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 3012&fh=66


UKMet was complete garbage with Barry


Not the first or last time. It's been top performer for Dorian so far. I'm not a hugger, I find it suspect sometimes.
Last edited by Steve on Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3720 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:35 am

Gotta love the NAM, but occasionally it does end up being somewhat close to the mark when the more extreme situations occur. Still I'd be surprised if it gets quite that potent (and yes, I know it shouldn't be used for strength!)
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