ATL: DORIAN - Models

[MacTavish]

Because of the angle of approach, the landfall location is going to be difficult until the last 24 hours. The models are for the most part in fairly strong agreement as to the basic idea. They will probably change a bit from run to run, and even their combined average may change between now and landfall. The NHC has been pretty consistent with their track, which is similar to what we see in the models now, and have only made slight adjustments based on the nuances of the guidance packages.

[funster]

With Irma it ended more west and south than it was forecast a few days out. Not sure if that will have anything to do with Dorian's final path but looking for a weakness in the ridge to the north is a similar problem.

[tgenius]

Hmon from 60-75 has dipped from above 26N to just under it.

[chris_fit]

Hmon from 60-75 has dipped from above 26N to just under it.

Still eyeing SE FL/Miami area - It is the HMON though....

[KWT]

Hmon from 60-75 has dipped from above 26N to just under it.

Still eyeing SE FL/Miami area - It is the HMON though....

Yeah it and the ICON are certainly outliers, though worth remembering ICON was one of the only models to see it going east of PR orginally when all the others gleefully impaled it over Hispaniola.

[NFLnut]

HMON coming in more N too

Farther north but still making a bee line toward Dade. I guess that's "north" considering they were annihilating the Keys just 24 hrs ago.

[DESTRUCTION5]

HWRF 12z buzzsawing its way in a straight line on the 27th parallel .

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like HMON is around the same strength, but the HWRF is quite a bit stronger through 66 hours. Wow, this could be a really really bad hurricane. Watch out FL.

[NDG]

It looks like 12z GFS ensembles mean will shift to the right very close to its Operational run

[psyclone]

Models lurch. It's what they do. You know who doesn't lurch? The smart people at the NHC. This could be the beginning of a trend..or not. If it is, look for it to be gradually reflected over multiple forecast cycles. We have to wait. But the fact that the previous forecast cycles generally reflected a slowdown (with an increasingly squashed cone as the storm refused to cross the mid peninsula) gave us a clue that something like this was a possible option. For me, if the 5 pm landfall point moves back toward Indian river county that would indicate the possibility that they're biting on a potential trend with more rightward shifts possible. the discussions will be valuable as well. I'll confess I enjoy looking at the models just like everyone else but I don't get bent out shape over them because I know that I lack the knowledge and skills to really interpret them. But my pulse quickens just before 5 and 11.

[chris_fit]

HWRF looks about the same as last run through 66hrz

[Aric Dunn]

4 pages of people arguing about consensus lol

Can we get back to posting the models please..

[NDG]

HWRF 12z buzzsawing its way in a straight line on the 27th parallel .

Yep, so far very similar track to its earlier 06z run but stronger.

[KWT]

I had to pin my flag to a model mast at the moment, I'd probably pick the HWRF based on what I've seen thus far from it.

FWIW the GFS has a mean track of 288 between 24-48hrs...meanwhile HMON is basically straight 270. Quite a large difference within that time period.

[SFLcane]

12z HMON...

[chris_fit]

NNW turn on the HMON right before landfall!

[Blinhart]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

There is a lot of spread even after 24 hours, so it is not going to be easy to forecast.

[AutoPenalti]

I get that the HMON and ICON have been considered outliers by some, but by god they have been the most consistent models I've seen so far.

UKMET as well, up until now.

[NDG]

HWRF 12z buzzsawing its way in a straight line on the 27th parallel .

Yep, so far very similar track to its earlier 06z run but stronger.

I spoke too soon, 81 hrs is a little further south and slightly weaker than previous 06z run.

[NDG]

I get that the HMON and ICON have been considered outliers by some, but by god they have been the most consistent models I've seen so far.

UKMET as well, up until now.

Actually, even the UKMET has been inconsistent at times.