ATL: DORIAN - Models

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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3841 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:08 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3842 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:08 pm

Through 72 hrs is very similar to last night's run.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3843 Postby drewschmaltz » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:08 pm

Kosmo Kitty wrote:I have a chance to move my flight out of FLL Sunday afternoon to Sunday early morning out of MIA, at a huge cost of $800. Still I would take it if Sunday morning really makes a big difference.

Any advice? :double:


Yup, don't post this in the models thread ;)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3844 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:09 pm

If anything, the 12Z Euro is a hair south (no more than 10 to 15 miles) of the 6Z this morning.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3845 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:10 pm

NDG wrote:Through 72 hrs is very similar to last night's run.


Quite abit faster though thus far, though it is slowing down between 48hrs and 72hrs so we may see that shift NW by 96hrs, but we will see!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3846 Postby LarryWx » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:10 pm

12Z Euro almost stalling offshore FL. Is this going to even get onshore?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3847 Postby LarryWx » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:11 pm

12 Euro stalling 75 miles offshore FL!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3848 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:11 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro almost stalling offshore FL. Is this going to even get onshore?


Not seeing any stall through 60 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3849 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:11 pm

NDG wrote:Through 72 hrs is very similar to last night's run.


Maybe a bit farther north? I have it at about 26.8N at 72 hours. It's beelining for SE FL Palm Beach/Martin/St. Lucie Counties?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3850 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:12 pm

Stalling...? What? Where?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3851 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:12 pm

petit_bois wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
Steve wrote:
Storm2k had it though. I caught the early cycle 18z guidance that Friday afternoon, and it was on. Next move was the NHC moving the landfall point 200 miles. That's seriously not going to happen this time. I'd bet any amount of money it doesn't cross 85 in the next 5 days. Most models don't get into the Gulf at all (ICON and possibly HWRF if it ran longer, but still unlikely). EC is the next chance.


As an example of how much the models can swing in the 3-5 day range, in just two model cycles (12 hours total), I present Matthew, 3 years ago:

http://flhurricane.com/images/2016/stor ... 3-1222.gif
http://flhurricane.com/images/2016/stor ... 3-2144.gif

And we all know how that played out.


get outta here... fake news... you're looking at model runs from Oct 2013... I was here too... Shock and amazement that Friday night-Saturday here when it refused to turn north... Like I said... $2.5mill is the bet



2016*
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3852 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:13 pm

Still WNW @ 66 hours
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3853 Postby LarryWx » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:14 pm

Steve wrote:
NDG wrote:Through 72 hrs is very similar to last night's run.


Maybe a bit farther north? I have it at about 26.8N at 72 hours. It's beelining for SE FL Palm Beach/Martin/St. Lucie Counties?


It moved only 60 miles during the 24 hours from hour 72 to 96.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3854 Postby robbielyn » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:14 pm

stalls happen when storms have to switch directions so this would be s good time to do it.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3855 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:15 pm

LarryWx wrote:
Steve wrote:
NDG wrote:Through 72 hrs is very similar to last night's run.


Maybe a bit farther north? I have it at about 26.8N at 72 hours. It's beelining for SE FL Palm Beach/Martin/St. Lucie Counties?


It moved only 60 miles during the 24 hours from hour 72 to 96.

That's not a stall.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3856 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:15 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3857 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:16 pm

Turning north at 96 hrs?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3858 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:16 pm

Could go N

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3859 Postby Steve » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:17 pm

A creep then? Haha. Looks to be about 27.08 at 96 hour so definitely some northern component to this track. Maybe a turn or maybe a glancing blow?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3860 Postby beachman80 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:17 pm

Going to north here. Euro created an avenue for it to pull poleward here. Have a feeling it's going to have it miss the coast.
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