ATL: DORIAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3861 Postby LarryWx » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:17 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Steve wrote:
Maybe a bit farther north? I have it at about 26.8N at 72 hours. It's beelining for SE FL Palm Beach/Martin/St. Lucie Counties?


It moved only 60 miles during the 24 hours from hour 72 to 96.

That's not a stall.


Not a stall technically but it moved at only 2-3 mph from hour 72 to 96 and is not coming onshore in central FL now. It I now moving NNw at hours 102-108!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3862 Postby LarryWx » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:18 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Steve wrote:
Maybe a bit farther north? I have it at about 26.8N at 72 hours. It's beelining for SE FL Palm Beach/Martin/St. Lucie Counties?


It moved only 60 miles during the 24 hours from hour 72 to 96.

That's not a stall.


Not a stall technically but it moved at only 2-3 mph from hour 72 to 96 and is not coming onshore in central FL now. It I now moving NNw at hours 102-108!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3863 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:18 pm

Looks like its about to lift up NW/NNW between 96-120hrs based on the motion of everything between 72-96hrs.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15448
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3864 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:18 pm

It looks like it will be an OTS on this run.
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3223
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3865 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:19 pm

MOving soooooo slow at 4 days.... anything can happen this far out when storms are moving so slow - OTS or dive back to the W
0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3866 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:20 pm

This is unreal, looks like it could follow what the stronger ensembles have been showing since 12z yesterday.
0 likes   

beachman80

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3867 Postby beachman80 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:21 pm

And there you have it. Euro shoots North and misses the state. I think this is the beginning of a big sigh of relief for the state.
2 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3868 Postby LarryWx » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:21 pm

Holy shoot on the 12Z Euro, what a change! Now heading toward Carolinas! An outlier for sure, but interesting.
Last edited by LarryWx on Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3223
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3869 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:21 pm

There would be nothing left of Grand Bahama if this panned out
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3870 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:21 pm

Yep stays offshore and heading NNW possibly towards Georgia/Carolinas.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3223
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3871 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:22 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3872 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:22 pm

Euro recurve away from Florida!
2 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3873 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:23 pm

KWT wrote:Yep stays offshore and heading NNW possibly towards Georgia/Carolinas.


No it doesn’t stay off shore...there’s cape canaveral there and it looked juuust west of that soo yea no doesn’t miss Florida
0 likes   

beachman80

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3874 Postby beachman80 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:23 pm

Picks up speed. Have a feeling it will have it miss Carolina here shortly. The NE turn is coming.
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3875 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:23 pm

Peeps, remember this is one run of one model that could swing back the next run.
5 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3223
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3876 Postby chris_fit » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:23 pm

And there we have it my friends...... within 12 hours we go through WFB landfall to probably no landfall in FL on the EURO...

I'd say that there is a consensus between all the major 12Z models - they all TRENDED East - way east
1 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3877 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:23 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5676
Age: 43
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3878 Postby StormingB81 » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:24 pm

And it’s close enough that a wobble puts it into Florida
1 likes   

User avatar
SEASON_CANCELED
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 887
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2009 5:17 am
Location: 8 Bit Charlie Sheen

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3879 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:24 pm

Will shift back next run
1 likes   
i am a big stupid ugly moron with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt stinks and i like to kiss my own butt

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4806
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#3880 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:24 pm

gatorcane wrote:Euro recurve away from Florida!


Absolutely amazing really. After days and days of destroying south/central florida, the Euro now misses completely and turns North. This is what drives most people insane lol
5 likes   


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests